出口市场多元化对中国水产品出口贸易的影响——基于协整检验和ECM模型的实证研究
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摘要
为研究水产品出口市场多元化对水产品出口贸易的影响,利用UN COMTRADE的水产品出口和渔业总产值、汇率数据,采用E-G协整检验和误差修正模型实证检验变量之间的关系。结果表明,中国水产品出口市场集中度降低,出口市场多元化水平提高;长期内出口市场多元化、人民币贬值、渔业经济增长促进出口增加;短期内出口市场多元化、人民币贬值对水产品出口有负向作用,渔业经济增长对水产品出口有正向影响。
Using the data of fish and seafood export,the paper analyzes the impact of export geographic concentration on fish and seafood export with the E-G co-integration test and ECM model.The results show that the export geographic concentration is decreasing,which also implies the export diversification is increasing.In long term,export diversification,RMB exchange rate depreciation and fishery industry growth have positive effect on fish and seafood export.In short term,the former two have negative effect on the export and the fishery growth still affect the export positively.
Using the data of fish and seafood export,the paper analyzes the impact of export geographic concentration on fish and seafood export with the E-G co-integration test and ECM model.The results show that the export geographic concentration is decreasing,which also implies the export diversification is increasing.In long term,export diversification,RMB exchange rate depreciation and fishery industry growth have positive effect on fish and seafood export.In short term,the former two have negative effect on the export and the fishery growth still affect the export positively.
引文
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[16]李红,周浩.农机购置投入结构与农机总动力增长的关系分析---基于面板数据模型[J].中国农机化学报,2013,34(3):30-37,41.Li Hong,Zhou Hao.Analysis on the relation between input structure for purchasing agricultural machines and agricultural machines power-Based on the panel data model[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2013,34(3):30-37,41.
[17]侯方安,李斯华.我国农业机械化与城镇化关系的协整分析[J].中国农机化学报,2015,36(2):300-304.Hou Fangan,Li Sihua.Co-integration analysis on the relation between urbanization and agricultural mechanization in China[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2015,36(2):300-304.
[2]钱学锋,余弋.出口市场多元化与企业生产率:中国经验[J].世界经济,2014(2):3-27.
[3]耿伟.要素价格扭曲是否提升了中国企业出口多元化水平?[J].世界经济研究,2013(9):49-54,67.
[4]刘乃全,戴晋.我国对亚洲市场出口地理方向的优化路径---基于出口市场多元化对出口绩效影响的实证分析[J].中国流通经济,2015(7):95-101.Liu Naiquan,Dai Jin.Analysis of the optimization path of exports to Asia from the perspective of geographical factors-based on the correlation of export performance and market diversity[J].China Business and Market,2015(7):95-101.
[5]易先忠,欧阳峣,傅晓岚.国内市场规模与出口产品结构多元化:制度环境的门槛效应[J].经济研究,2014(6):18-29.Yi Xianzhong,Ouyang Yao,Fu Xiaolan.Domestic market size and export diversification:the threshold effect of institutional environment[J].Economic Research Journal,2014(6):18-29.
[6]王慧,罗慧,孙炜娟,等.基于钻石模型的中国水产品出口竞争力分析---以山东省为例[J].世界农业,2016(9):150-156.
[7]田素妍,周力,章棋.产业集聚与中国水产品出口竞争力研究---基于VAR模型的广义脉冲分析[J].江苏农业科学,2012(8):374-377.
[8]王文瑜,胡求光.产业纵向一体化对水产品出口贸易的影响研究[J].国际贸易问题,2015(5):53-61.Wang Wenyu,Hu Qiuguang.Study on influence of industrial vertical integration on aquatic products export[J].Journal of International Trade,2015(5):53-61.
[9]蒋云凤.基于CMS模型分析中国对美国水产品出口增长因素[J].世界农业,2018(3):114-121.
[10]胡求光,霍学喜.中国水产品出口贸易影响因素与发展潜力---基于引力模型的分析[J].农业技术经济,2008(3):100-105.
[11]郑思宁,黄祖辉.加入WTO对海峡两岸水产品出口波动影响的实证研究---基于福建与台湾的恒定市场分析[J].经济地理,2013(9):108-114.Zheng Sining,Huang Zuhui.The effect of accession to wto on aquatic product export change of the two sides of the Taiwan strait:based on market share model(CMS)analyses of Fujian and Taiwan Province[J].Economic Geography,2013(9):108-114.
[12]刘庆博,刘俊昌.中国水产品出口波动的实证分析:1992-2011[J].国际经贸探索,2013(1):15-24.Liu Qingbo,Liu Junchang.An empirical analysis of the export fluctuation of Chinese aquatic products:1992-2011[J].International Economics and Trade Research,2013(1):15-24.
[13]杨莲娜.中国水产品对欧盟出口波动影响因素分析[J].农业经济问题,2011(6):103-112.
[14]胡求光,霍学喜.基于比较优势的水产品贸易结构分析[J].农业经济问题,2007(12):20-26.
[15]王锋,张小栓,穆维松,等.中国水产品出口贸易结构比较分析[J].中国渔业经济,2007(6):38-41.Wang Feng,Zhang Xiaoshuan,Mu Weisong,et al.Comparative analysison Chinas aquatic products export structure[J].Chinese Fisheries Economics,2007(6):38-41.
[16]李红,周浩.农机购置投入结构与农机总动力增长的关系分析---基于面板数据模型[J].中国农机化学报,2013,34(3):30-37,41.Li Hong,Zhou Hao.Analysis on the relation between input structure for purchasing agricultural machines and agricultural machines power-Based on the panel data model[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2013,34(3):30-37,41.
[17]侯方安,李斯华.我国农业机械化与城镇化关系的协整分析[J].中国农机化学报,2015,36(2):300-304.Hou Fangan,Li Sihua.Co-integration analysis on the relation between urbanization and agricultural mechanization in China[J].Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2015,36(2):300-304.