2011年“洛克”和“桑卡”双台风预报效果的初值试验研究
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摘要
采用南海台风模式,对2011年业务预报误差较大的台风"洛克"(1115)和"桑卡"(1116)双台风的初值方案进行试验和研究,目的在于寻求改进预报的线索,从而提升台风模式性能。针对"洛克"和"桑卡"台风设计了几组初值方案对比试验,结果表明,仅对弱台风"桑卡"进行重定位和bogus的初值处理,与对双台风都进行初值处理相比较,两台风的路径预报误差减小。分析认为仅对弱台风作初值处理以改善其涡旋环流的影响是该双台风路径预报得以改进的原因。对2011—2012年所有弱台风进行批量预报试验,结果表明对弱台风采用重定位和bogus的初值处理,台风路径预报和强度预报的误差减小。对弱台风进行重定位和bogus初值处理,可改善模式对弱台风的预报效果。此外,目前南海台风模式中现有的bogus方法构造的涡旋相对于弱台风而言云顶偏高,可考虑发展针对弱台风的涡旋模型。
Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea(TRAMS),Typhoon Roke(1115) and Sonca(1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction, have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast.The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model.Several initialization schemes have been designed andthe corresponding experimentshave beendone for Typhoon Roke and Sonca. The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons' track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca, compared with using the scheme for both typhoons. By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement. All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests.It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast. Besides, the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon.It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.
Based on the Tropical Region Atmospheric Modeling System for South China Sea(TRAMS),Typhoon Roke(1115) and Sonca(1116) in 2011 which have large forecast errors in numerical operation prediction, have been selected for research focusing on the initial scheme and its influence on forecast.The purpose is to find a clue for model improvement and enhance the performance of the typhoon model.Several initialization schemes have been designed andthe corresponding experimentshave beendone for Typhoon Roke and Sonca. The results show that the forecast error of both typhoons' track and intensity are less using the initial scheme of relocation and bogus just for the weak Typhoon Sonca, compared with using the scheme for both typhoons. By analysis the influence of the scheme on weak typhoon vortex circulation may be the reason that leads to the improvement. All weak typhoons in 2011 to 2012 are selected for tests.It comes to the conclusion that the initial scheme of relocation and bogus can reduce the error of track and intensity forecast. Besides, the height of cloud top in typhoon vortex constructed by bogus is too high according to weak typhoon.It is feasible to develop a bogus which is suitable for weak typhoon.
引文
[1]麻素红,瞿安祥.不同初始场及侧边界对台风路径数值预报的影响[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(6):738-743.
[2]瞿安祥,麻素红.非对称台风Bogus方案设计和初步试验[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(3):380-387.
[3]王云峰,卢强,王斌,等.台风过程数值模拟中4种初值化方案对比分析[J].气象科技,2011,39(4):385-391.
[4]何安国,王康玲.南海异常路径台风预报的数值试验[J].热带气象学报,1993,9(2):133-141.
[5]王国民,王诗文,李建军.一个人造台风方案及其在移动套网格模式中的应用[J].热带气象学报,1996,12(1):9-17.
[6]袁炳,费建芳,王云峰,等.一种非对称台风Bogus方法的数值模拟应用[J].海洋通报,2010,29(2):187-193.
[7]IWASAKI T,NAKANO H,SUGI M.The performance of a typhoon track prediction model[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,1987,65(4):555-570.
[8]MATHUR M B.The national meteorological center’s quasi lagrangian model for hurricane predition[J].Mon Wea Rev,1991,119(6):1 419-1 447.
[9]KURIHARA,Y,BENDER M A,ROSS R J.An initialization scheme of hurricane models by vortex specification[J].Mon Wea Rev,1993,121(7):2 030-2 045.
[10]闫敬华,丁伟钰,徐建平.“非bogus初值”热带气旋数值预报及其性能[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(5):513-522.
[11]丁伟钰,万齐林.BDA方案及其对伊布都(0307)台风预报的影响[M]//推进气象科技创新,加快气象事业发展(上册).北京:气象出版社,2004:240-248.
[12]黄燕燕,闫敬华,蒙伟光,等.BDA方案对台风背景高温天气预报的改进[J].气象学报,2010,68(1):102-114.
[13]黄伟,梁旭东.台风涡旋循环初始化方法及其在GRAPES-TCM中的应用[J].气象学报,2010,68(3):366-376.
[14]CHA D H,WANGY Y Q.A dynamical initialization scheme for real-time forecasts of tropical cyclones using the WRF model[J].Mon Wea Rev,2013,141(3):964-986.
[15]FUJIWHARA,S.The natural tendency towards symmetry of motion and its application as a principle in meteorology[J].Quart J R Meteorol Soc,1921,47(200):287-293.
[16]吴中海.双台风相互作用的一种分析[J].大气科学,1981,5(1):32-42.
[17]KHANDEKER M L,RAO G V.The mutual interaction of multiple vortexes and its influence on binary and single tropical vortex systems[J].Mon Wea Rev,1971,99(11):840-846.
[18]唐东昇,朱平.西太平洋双台风的互旋作用[M]//1983年全国台风会议文集.上海:上海科学技术出版社,1983:77-78.
[19]DEMARIA M,CHAN J C L.Comments on“A numerical study of the interactions between two tropical cyclones”[J].Mon Wea Rev,1984,112(8):1 643-1 645.
[20]王玉清,朱永禔.正压无辐散模式中双涡的相互作用[J].热带气象,1989,5(2):105-115.
[21]王玉清,朱永禔.双热带气旋相互作用的机制分析及数值研究[J].大气科学,1992,16(5):659-668.
[22]RITCHIE E A,HOLLAND G J.On the interaction of tropical-cyclone-scale vortices,Part II:Discrete vortex pathes[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,1993,119(514):1 363-1 379.
[23]炎利军,田永祥,黄先香.双台风相互作用的数值研究[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2):167-175.
[24]陈企岗,束家鑫,王志烈.双台风的某些气候特征[M]//1981年全国台风会议文集.上海:上海科学技术出版社,1983,79-87.
[25]王作述,付秀琴.双台风相互作用及对它们移动的影响[J].大气科学,1983,7(3):260-278.
[26]包澄澜,阮均石,朱跃建.双台风互旋与引导气流关系的研究[J].海洋学报,1985,7(6):696-705.
[27]袁金南,宋丽莉,黄燕燕,等.一种初始涡旋重定位方法及热带气旋路径数值模拟试验[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(3):258-263.
[28]ANTHES R A.Data assimilation and initialization of hurricane prediction models[J].J Atmos Sci,1974,31(3):702-719.
[29]UENOM M,OK N K.Improvement in the operational typhoon bogussing method[Z].Escap/WMO Typhoon Committee technical conference on SPECTRUM,1991:83-93.
[2]瞿安祥,麻素红.非对称台风Bogus方案设计和初步试验[J].应用气象学报,2007,18(3):380-387.
[3]王云峰,卢强,王斌,等.台风过程数值模拟中4种初值化方案对比分析[J].气象科技,2011,39(4):385-391.
[4]何安国,王康玲.南海异常路径台风预报的数值试验[J].热带气象学报,1993,9(2):133-141.
[5]王国民,王诗文,李建军.一个人造台风方案及其在移动套网格模式中的应用[J].热带气象学报,1996,12(1):9-17.
[6]袁炳,费建芳,王云峰,等.一种非对称台风Bogus方法的数值模拟应用[J].海洋通报,2010,29(2):187-193.
[7]IWASAKI T,NAKANO H,SUGI M.The performance of a typhoon track prediction model[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,1987,65(4):555-570.
[8]MATHUR M B.The national meteorological center’s quasi lagrangian model for hurricane predition[J].Mon Wea Rev,1991,119(6):1 419-1 447.
[9]KURIHARA,Y,BENDER M A,ROSS R J.An initialization scheme of hurricane models by vortex specification[J].Mon Wea Rev,1993,121(7):2 030-2 045.
[10]闫敬华,丁伟钰,徐建平.“非bogus初值”热带气旋数值预报及其性能[J].应用气象学报,2004,15(5):513-522.
[11]丁伟钰,万齐林.BDA方案及其对伊布都(0307)台风预报的影响[M]//推进气象科技创新,加快气象事业发展(上册).北京:气象出版社,2004:240-248.
[12]黄燕燕,闫敬华,蒙伟光,等.BDA方案对台风背景高温天气预报的改进[J].气象学报,2010,68(1):102-114.
[13]黄伟,梁旭东.台风涡旋循环初始化方法及其在GRAPES-TCM中的应用[J].气象学报,2010,68(3):366-376.
[14]CHA D H,WANGY Y Q.A dynamical initialization scheme for real-time forecasts of tropical cyclones using the WRF model[J].Mon Wea Rev,2013,141(3):964-986.
[15]FUJIWHARA,S.The natural tendency towards symmetry of motion and its application as a principle in meteorology[J].Quart J R Meteorol Soc,1921,47(200):287-293.
[16]吴中海.双台风相互作用的一种分析[J].大气科学,1981,5(1):32-42.
[17]KHANDEKER M L,RAO G V.The mutual interaction of multiple vortexes and its influence on binary and single tropical vortex systems[J].Mon Wea Rev,1971,99(11):840-846.
[18]唐东昇,朱平.西太平洋双台风的互旋作用[M]//1983年全国台风会议文集.上海:上海科学技术出版社,1983:77-78.
[19]DEMARIA M,CHAN J C L.Comments on“A numerical study of the interactions between two tropical cyclones”[J].Mon Wea Rev,1984,112(8):1 643-1 645.
[20]王玉清,朱永禔.正压无辐散模式中双涡的相互作用[J].热带气象,1989,5(2):105-115.
[21]王玉清,朱永禔.双热带气旋相互作用的机制分析及数值研究[J].大气科学,1992,16(5):659-668.
[22]RITCHIE E A,HOLLAND G J.On the interaction of tropical-cyclone-scale vortices,Part II:Discrete vortex pathes[J].Quart J Roy Meteor Soc,1993,119(514):1 363-1 379.
[23]炎利军,田永祥,黄先香.双台风相互作用的数值研究[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(2):167-175.
[24]陈企岗,束家鑫,王志烈.双台风的某些气候特征[M]//1981年全国台风会议文集.上海:上海科学技术出版社,1983,79-87.
[25]王作述,付秀琴.双台风相互作用及对它们移动的影响[J].大气科学,1983,7(3):260-278.
[26]包澄澜,阮均石,朱跃建.双台风互旋与引导气流关系的研究[J].海洋学报,1985,7(6):696-705.
[27]袁金南,宋丽莉,黄燕燕,等.一种初始涡旋重定位方法及热带气旋路径数值模拟试验[J].热带气象学报,2010,26(3):258-263.
[28]ANTHES R A.Data assimilation and initialization of hurricane prediction models[J].J Atmos Sci,1974,31(3):702-719.
[29]UENOM M,OK N K.Improvement in the operational typhoon bogussing method[Z].Escap/WMO Typhoon Committee technical conference on SPECTRUM,1991:83-93.