甘南高原大到暴雨天气过程分型及特征
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摘要
基于2013—2016年甘南州181个区域站及自动站小时雨量观测资料,提取出53次大到暴雨天气过程,在此基础上进一步分析卫星云图、雷达观测资料以及历史天气资料。结果表明:甘南地区的大到暴雨天气过程主要出现在雨季,7、8月出现频次较高,其天气形势主要分为:西风槽型、副热带高压边缘型、低涡切变型、两高之间切变型、高压内部切变型5种类型,且以西风槽型为主。各类型大到暴雨天气过程的预报侧重点有所不同,西风槽型大到暴雨预报主要侧重于天气尺度环境场分析,其降水时间长,强度较弱(15 mm·h~(-1)以下),副热带高压边缘型、低涡切变型、两高之间切变型大到暴雨天气的预报主要归结为对高原上短时强降水的预报,短时强降水的实时观测可为这三种类型大到暴雨天气过程的预报提供重要依据。
Total 53 heavy rainfall events were identified by historical hourly precipitation from 181 regional stations and automatic meteorological stations over Ganan Plateau during 2013-2016. Corresponding synoptic characteristics were analyzed and extracted from the satellite imagery,radar observation and historical weather data. The results show that heavy rainfall always occurred during the rainy season,especially in July and August. The synoptic situations of heavy rainfall were mainly divided into five patterns including west wind trough,subtropical high-pressure borderline,strong shear in low vortex,wind shear between two high systems and wind shear in high systems,but the westerly trough was dominant. The emphasis of the prediction procedure of heavy rainfall was different among these five synoptic conditions. Under the situation of westerly trough,contribution of large-scale environment played an important role. The precipitation could last long time with weak intensity( less than 15 mm ·h~(-1)). However,forecast about subtropical high-pressure borderline,strong shear in low vortex,wind shear between two high systems should be focused on the prediction of short-term heavy precipitation over the plateau. The real-time observation of short-term heavy rainfall could provide an important basis for the prediction of these three types of extreme rain events.
Total 53 heavy rainfall events were identified by historical hourly precipitation from 181 regional stations and automatic meteorological stations over Ganan Plateau during 2013-2016. Corresponding synoptic characteristics were analyzed and extracted from the satellite imagery,radar observation and historical weather data. The results show that heavy rainfall always occurred during the rainy season,especially in July and August. The synoptic situations of heavy rainfall were mainly divided into five patterns including west wind trough,subtropical high-pressure borderline,strong shear in low vortex,wind shear between two high systems and wind shear in high systems,but the westerly trough was dominant. The emphasis of the prediction procedure of heavy rainfall was different among these five synoptic conditions. Under the situation of westerly trough,contribution of large-scale environment played an important role. The precipitation could last long time with weak intensity( less than 15 mm ·h~(-1)). However,forecast about subtropical high-pressure borderline,strong shear in low vortex,wind shear between two high systems should be focused on the prediction of short-term heavy precipitation over the plateau. The real-time observation of short-term heavy rainfall could provide an important basis for the prediction of these three types of extreme rain events.
引文
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[3]杨显玉,文军,王大勇,等.—次甘肃强降水过程的数值模拟与诊断分析[J].高原气象,2016,35(3):726-733.
[4]狄潇泓,许东蓓,肖玮,等.“5. 10”岷县短时暴雨斜压锋生特征和不稳定条件分析[J].干旱气象,2017,35(1):108-115.
[5]胡钰玲,王遂缠,王式功,等. 2012年初夏西北干旱区罕见区域性大暴雨天气过程分析[J].干旱气象,2015,33(1):128-137.
[6]刘新伟.甘肃暴雨天气气候特征及其成因研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2013.
[7]蒲金涌,苗具全,姚小英,等.甘肃省暴雨洪水灾害分布特征研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(1):27-31.
[8]王建兵,杨建才,汪治桂.舟曲“8. 8”暴雨云团的中尺度特征[J].干旱气象,2011,29(4):466-471.
[9]宁和平,韩莹,王建兵,等.甘南州2011年7月2—5日持续性暴雨天气成因分析[J].中国农学通报,2014,30(23):218-223.
[10]陶诗言.中国之暴雨[M].北京:科学出版社,1980:115-120.
[11]张雅斌,武麦风,侯建忠.陕西四次台风远距离暴雨过程的水汽条件对比[J].干旱气象,2014,32(5):788-797.
[12]师锐,何光碧,龙柯吉.一次四川盆地低涡型特大暴雨过程分析[J].干旱气象,2016,33(5):845-855.
[13]刘国忠,韦春霞,班荣贵,等.广西区域极端大暴雨成因个例分析[J].气象科技,2013,41(5):895-905.
[14]刘利明,德庆措姆,孟丽霞,等.甘肃河东一次区域性暴雨天气过程分析[J].干旱气象,2009,27(3):271-275.
[15]刘洪兰,张强,刘德菊,等.河西走廊中部一次暴雨过程的天气学诊断[J].干旱气象,2014,32(2):262-268.
[16]李小兰,陈军,滕林,等.贵州高原北侧锢囚锋上一次低涡形成过程[J].干旱气象,2018,36(1):44-49.
[17]尉英华,陈宏,张楠,等.冷涡影响下一次冰雹强对流天气中尺度特征及形成机制[J].干旱气象,2018,36(1):27-33.