证券市场监管者比其他参与者更理性吗
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摘要
本文借鉴心理学研究方法,采用具有情景因素的问卷调查方法,选取证券市场的监管主体,以及对证券市场交易有着重大影响的券商、基金公司和上市银行等证券市场的其他参与者作为对照组,通过发放问卷、回收问卷、数据处理,运用应用统计学的方法对证券监管者与其他参与者的非理性行为及特点进行两个维度、三个层次的分析。研究发现,证券监管者决策同其他市场参与者一样同样受到证实性偏差、模糊厌恶、确定性效应的影响;证券监管者存在的三种非理性行为之间不存在高度相关性,其中证实性偏差与模糊厌恶二者具有较低程度的负相关;监管者与其他参与者在不同非理性项目上的分布不存在显著差异,且证实性偏差在区分监管者与其他参与者人群非理性行为特点中处于首要位置。
On the with the basic of the psychology research methods,this paper uses a questionnaire survey method situational fund factors,selects the securities market regulators as the research object,and the companies,securities research traders,listed banks which hand have great influence on securities market,as the with control group.Then we out the questionnaire,collect and process the data the applied statistics securities results methods.This regulators paper analyzes the irrational behaviors and three its’characteristics levels.of and other participants in as two well certainty latitude as and The empirical also show that regulators making decisions aversion behavior negative other market participants affected correlation by the confirmation bias,ambiguity of and in effect;There is no high between three kinds have irrational regulators,and the confirmation bias and ambiguity aversion lower not degree of correlation;Regulators different and other participants’distribution behavior does exist significant bias’s differences first among in irrational types and of people,and confirmation in the place distinguishing between regulators other participants.
On the with the basic of the psychology research methods,this paper uses a questionnaire survey method situational fund factors,selects the securities market regulators as the research object,and the companies,securities research traders,listed banks which hand have great influence on securities market,as the with control group.Then we out the questionnaire,collect and process the data the applied statistics securities results methods.This regulators paper analyzes the irrational behaviors and three its’characteristics levels.of and other participants in as two well certainty latitude as and The empirical also show that regulators making decisions aversion behavior negative other market participants affected correlation by the confirmation bias,ambiguity of and in effect;There is no high between three kinds have irrational regulators,and the confirmation bias and ambiguity aversion lower not degree of correlation;Regulators different and other participants’distribution behavior does exist significant bias’s differences first among in irrational types and of people,and confirmation in the place distinguishing between regulators other participants.
引文
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[16]JaeHong Park,Prabhudev Konana,Bin Gu.Information valuation and confirmation bias in virtual communities:Evidence from stock message boards[J].Information Systems Research,2013,24(4):1050-1067.
[17]Heath C,Tversky A.Preference and belief:Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1991,4(1):5-28.
[18]王军.管理决策中的个体认知偏差研究[D].沈阳:辽宁大学,2009.
[2]Jolls C.Behavioral Law and Economics[J].NBER Working Paper,2006.
[3]Hirshleifer,D.Psychological bias as a driver of financial regulation[J].European Financial Management,2008,14(5):856-874.
[4]赵静梅,吴风云.非理性的博弈:行为金融学视角的证券监管[J].宏观经济研究,2008(12):57-74.
[5]郝旭光.中国证券市场监管有效性研究[J].中国工业经济,2011(6):16-25.
[6]Nickerson R S.Confirmation bias:A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises[J].Review of General Psychology,1998,2(2):175-220.
[7]Ask K,Granhag P A.Motivational bias in criminal investigators'judgments of witness reliability[J].Journal of Applied Social Psychology,2007,37(3):561-591.
[8]Hergovich A,Schott R,Burger C.Biased evaluation of abstracts depending on topic and conclusion:Further evidence of a confirmation Bias within scientific psychology[J].Current Psychology,2010,29(3):188-209.
[9]Kosnik L R D.Refusing to budge:A confirmatory bias in decision making?[J].Mind and Society,2008,7(2):193-214.
[10]Calikli G,Bener A.Empirical analysis of factors affecting confirmation bias levels of software engineers[J].Software Quality Journal,2015(12):695-722.
[11]Hogarth R,Einhorn H.Venture Theory:A model of decision weights[J].Management Science,1990,36(7):780-803.
[12]Gollier C.Does ambiguity aversion reinforce risk aversion?Applications to portfolio choices and asset pricing[R].University of Toulouse,Working Paper,2005.
[13]董志勇,韩旭.模糊厌恶和羊群行为[J].经济科学,2008(2).
[14]Kahneman D,Tversky A.Prospect Theory:An Analysis of Decision under Risk[J].Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-291.
[15]Tversky A,Fox CR.Weighing risk and uncertainty[J].Psychology Review,1995,102:269-283.
[16]JaeHong Park,Prabhudev Konana,Bin Gu.Information valuation and confirmation bias in virtual communities:Evidence from stock message boards[J].Information Systems Research,2013,24(4):1050-1067.
[17]Heath C,Tversky A.Preference and belief:Ambiguity and competence in choice under uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty,1991,4(1):5-28.
[18]王军.管理决策中的个体认知偏差研究[D].沈阳:辽宁大学,2009.