基本养老保险基金的调剂效果研究
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摘要
自2018年7月1日起,我国开始实施《企业职工基本养老保险基金中央调剂制度》,对全国各省份的养老基金进行中央调剂,以缓解省际间养老保险基金的不平衡,其调剂效果也将直接影响到后续政策的制定。本文首先以养老基金拨付额与上解额之比构建了衡量调剂程度的指标——调剂指数,等于抚养比指数与工资指数之比;然后基于2009-2016年的省际面板数据展开实证分析,主要结论如下:①当前养老基金结余主要集中在广东、北京、上海等8个省份,而且这种高度集中的趋势还在逐年加强,有必要进行中央调剂;②抚养比越高、工资水平越低的省份,获得的调剂数额就越多,全国大约有20%的上解资金被用于省际间的调剂,被调入到收不抵支省份的资金比例在逐年上升;③抚养比指数和工资指数对调剂指数的影响程度存在很大差异,其中抚养比指数的影响程度超过了80%,而工资指数还不到20%,调整在职应参保人数的计算方式,主要是通过影响抚养比指数来影响调剂指数的。
"Concentration Adjustment System" is expected to alleviate the gap between revenue and expenditure among provincial pensions. The adjustment effect of this transitional strategy will affect the future policies. Therefore, we construct an evaluation index——Adjustment Index(AI), which equal the ratio of Dependency Ratio Index(DI) to the Wage Index(WI). We make positive analysis based on the data from 2009 to 2016, and draw following conclusions:(1) The balances of pension funds have been highly concentrated upon 8 provinces including Guangdong, Beijing and Shanghai, and the concentration trend is increasing year by year;(2) About 20% of the turned-in funds are used for inter-provincial transfers, and the proportion of funds transferred to provinces with insufficiency is increasing;(3) DI and WI highly affect the AI, but the degree is different, the ration of DI's explanatory power is more than 80%, while the WI is less than 20%, and the method of calculating accrued and insured workers will affects AI by influencing DI.
"Concentration Adjustment System" is expected to alleviate the gap between revenue and expenditure among provincial pensions. The adjustment effect of this transitional strategy will affect the future policies. Therefore, we construct an evaluation index——Adjustment Index(AI), which equal the ratio of Dependency Ratio Index(DI) to the Wage Index(WI). We make positive analysis based on the data from 2009 to 2016, and draw following conclusions:(1) The balances of pension funds have been highly concentrated upon 8 provinces including Guangdong, Beijing and Shanghai, and the concentration trend is increasing year by year;(2) About 20% of the turned-in funds are used for inter-provincial transfers, and the proportion of funds transferred to provinces with insufficiency is increasing;(3) DI and WI highly affect the AI, but the degree is different, the ration of DI's explanatory power is more than 80%, while the WI is less than 20%, and the method of calculating accrued and insured workers will affects AI by influencing DI.
引文
[1]席恒,梁木.基本养老保险全国统筹可能性分析[J].社会保障研究,2009(1):3-9.
[2]李连芬,刘德伟.我国基本养老保险全国统筹的动力源泉与路径选择[J].财经科学,2013(11):34-43.
[3]郑功成.从地区分割到全国统筹——中国职工基本养老保险制度深化改革的必由之路[J].中国人民大学学报,2015(3):2-11.
[4]穆怀中,闫琳琳,张文晓.养老保险统筹层次收入再分配系数及全国统筹类型研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(4):19-34.
[5]林宝.基础养老金全国统筹的待遇确定方法研究[J].中国人口科学,2016(2):61-71.
[6]刘伟兵,韩天阔,刘二鹏,邓大松.养老保险全国统筹中的待遇确定方法和“福利损失”研究[J].保险研究,2018(4):86-97.
[7]贾洪波,方倩.基础养老金省级统筹到全国统筹再分配效应的比较静态分析[J].保险研究,2015(1):100-111.
[8]邓大松,杨晶.全国统筹条件下城镇职工养老保险统筹基金的精算评估[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2018(5):133-143.
[9]L.Shapley.A Value for N-person Games[C].In Contributions to the Theory of Games,vol.II,H.W.Kuhn and A.W.Tucker,Princeton:Princeton University Press,1953.307-317.
[10]万广华,张藕香.贫困按要素分解:方法与例证[J].经济学(季刊),2008(4):997-1012.
[11]A.Shorrocks.Decomposition Procedures for Distributional Analysis:A Unified Framework Based on the Shapley Value [J].Journal of Economic Inequality,2013(1):99-126.
[12]O.Israeli.A Shapley-based Decomposition of the R-Square of a Linear Regression[J].Journal of Economic Inequality,2007(2):199-212.
[13]F.Huettner,M.Sunder.Axiomatic Arguments for Decomposing Goodness of Fit According to Shapley and Owen Values[J].Electronic Journal of Statistics,2012(6):1239-1250.
[14]邓悦汪,佳龙.城镇职工基础养老金全国统筹中的央地关系研究——基于博弈论的分析视角[J].社会保障研究,2018(4):3-12.
(1)数据来源:通过国家统计局公开的分地区年度统计数据(http://data.stats.gov.cn)整理而得,具体方法见本文第三部分。
(2)抚养比又称抚养系数,是指非劳动年龄人口对劳动年龄人口之比,等于老龄人口抚养比与未成年人口抚养比之和。本文的研究对象是基本养老保险制度,文中所说的抚养比,是指基本养老保险制度中的退休参保人数与在职应参保人数之比。
(3)http://www.mohrss.gov.cn/SYrlzyhshbzb/dongtaixinwen/fbh/lxxwfbh/201711/t20171101_280424.html
[2]李连芬,刘德伟.我国基本养老保险全国统筹的动力源泉与路径选择[J].财经科学,2013(11):34-43.
[3]郑功成.从地区分割到全国统筹——中国职工基本养老保险制度深化改革的必由之路[J].中国人民大学学报,2015(3):2-11.
[4]穆怀中,闫琳琳,张文晓.养老保险统筹层次收入再分配系数及全国统筹类型研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2014(4):19-34.
[5]林宝.基础养老金全国统筹的待遇确定方法研究[J].中国人口科学,2016(2):61-71.
[6]刘伟兵,韩天阔,刘二鹏,邓大松.养老保险全国统筹中的待遇确定方法和“福利损失”研究[J].保险研究,2018(4):86-97.
[7]贾洪波,方倩.基础养老金省级统筹到全国统筹再分配效应的比较静态分析[J].保险研究,2015(1):100-111.
[8]邓大松,杨晶.全国统筹条件下城镇职工养老保险统筹基金的精算评估[J].中国地质大学学报(社会科学版),2018(5):133-143.
[9]L.Shapley.A Value for N-person Games[C].In Contributions to the Theory of Games,vol.II,H.W.Kuhn and A.W.Tucker,Princeton:Princeton University Press,1953.307-317.
[10]万广华,张藕香.贫困按要素分解:方法与例证[J].经济学(季刊),2008(4):997-1012.
[11]A.Shorrocks.Decomposition Procedures for Distributional Analysis:A Unified Framework Based on the Shapley Value [J].Journal of Economic Inequality,2013(1):99-126.
[12]O.Israeli.A Shapley-based Decomposition of the R-Square of a Linear Regression[J].Journal of Economic Inequality,2007(2):199-212.
[13]F.Huettner,M.Sunder.Axiomatic Arguments for Decomposing Goodness of Fit According to Shapley and Owen Values[J].Electronic Journal of Statistics,2012(6):1239-1250.
[14]邓悦汪,佳龙.城镇职工基础养老金全国统筹中的央地关系研究——基于博弈论的分析视角[J].社会保障研究,2018(4):3-12.
(1)数据来源:通过国家统计局公开的分地区年度统计数据(http://data.stats.gov.cn)整理而得,具体方法见本文第三部分。
(2)抚养比又称抚养系数,是指非劳动年龄人口对劳动年龄人口之比,等于老龄人口抚养比与未成年人口抚养比之和。本文的研究对象是基本养老保险制度,文中所说的抚养比,是指基本养老保险制度中的退休参保人数与在职应参保人数之比。
(3)http://www.mohrss.gov.cn/SYrlzyhshbzb/dongtaixinwen/fbh/lxxwfbh/201711/t20171101_280424.html