基于雨型的小流域雨量预警指标不确定性研究
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摘要
雨型对设计洪水具有潜在影响,而设计洪峰值的精度直接影响雨量预警指标的准确度,因此有必要探究山丘区小流域雨型对雨量预警指标的不确定性影响。在小流域降雨特性分析的基础上,通过设计暴雨洪水计算、水位流量反推法确定不同雨型的雨量预警指标,分析雨型和雨量预警指标间的响应关系。以河南省裴河小流域夏湾组作为预警对象,实例结果表明:雨型对山洪灾害雨量预警指标影响较大,实际工作中需要考虑其合理性;在同一预警时段内,雨峰偏前时对应的临界雨量是雨峰偏后时的1.67倍,雨峰居中时的临界雨量是雨峰偏后时的1.39倍。雨型的合理性及其对雨量预警指标影响的定量化研究,为小流域山洪灾害预警指标分析计算提供了技术支撑和经验参考价值。
As the rainfall pattern has a potential impact on the design of the peak flow,and the accuracy of the design peak flow directly affects the reliability of rainfall warning indicators,it is necessary to explore the influence of rainfall patterns on rainfall warning indexes in small watersheds,and between the two response relationship.Based on an analysis of rainfall characteristics,the design rainstorm flood calculation method and inversion method of water level/flow are used to obtain rainfall early warning indicators for different rainfall patterns,the impact relationship between rainfall pattern and rainfall warning indicators are compared and analyzed.This paper takes the Xiawan in Peihe Watershed Basin of Henan Province as an early warning object.The results show that the rainfall pattern has a great impact on the early warning indicators of mountain flood disasters,and the rationality of the actual work needs to be considered.In the same early warning period,rainfall warning indicator calculated at the front of rainfall peak position is 1.67 times that at the behind of rainfall peak position,rainfall warning indicator calculated at the middle of rainfall peak position is 1.39 times that at the behind of rainfall peak position.The rationality of the rainfall pattern and its quantitative research on the impact of the rainfall warning indicators provides a technical support and empirical reference value for the analysis and calculation of early warning indicators of mountain flood disasters in small watershed.
As the rainfall pattern has a potential impact on the design of the peak flow,and the accuracy of the design peak flow directly affects the reliability of rainfall warning indicators,it is necessary to explore the influence of rainfall patterns on rainfall warning indexes in small watersheds,and between the two response relationship.Based on an analysis of rainfall characteristics,the design rainstorm flood calculation method and inversion method of water level/flow are used to obtain rainfall early warning indicators for different rainfall patterns,the impact relationship between rainfall pattern and rainfall warning indicators are compared and analyzed.This paper takes the Xiawan in Peihe Watershed Basin of Henan Province as an early warning object.The results show that the rainfall pattern has a great impact on the early warning indicators of mountain flood disasters,and the rationality of the actual work needs to be considered.In the same early warning period,rainfall warning indicator calculated at the front of rainfall peak position is 1.67 times that at the behind of rainfall peak position,rainfall warning indicator calculated at the middle of rainfall peak position is 1.39 times that at the behind of rainfall peak position.The rationality of the rainfall pattern and its quantitative research on the impact of the rainfall warning indicators provides a technical support and empirical reference value for the analysis and calculation of early warning indicators of mountain flood disasters in small watershed.
引文
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[2]程卫帅.山洪灾害临界雨量研究综述[J].水科学进展,2013,24(6):901-908.
[3]李磊.水位反推法在临界雨量计算中的应用[J].人民长江,2016,47(22):6-9.
[4]卢燕宇,谢五三,田红.基于水文模型与统计方法的中小河流致洪临界雨量分析[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(3):38-47.
[5]姬晶,刘攀,江炎生,等.一种无资料地区山洪灾害临界雨量计算方法研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2017,(1):76-79.
[6]岑国平,沈晋,范荣生.城市设计暴雨雨型研究[J].水科学进展,1998,9(1):41-46.
[7]Jain S K,Singh R D,Seth S M.Design Flood Estimation Using GISSupported GIUHApproach[J].Water Resources Management,2000,14(5):369-376.
[8]范泽华.天津市降雨趋势分析及设计暴雨研究[D].天津:天津大学,2011.
[9]Mca P,Torfs P,Tesar M,et al.The influence of temporal rainfall distribution in the flood runoff modelling.[J].Soil&Water Research,2009,4:S102-S110.
[10]林木生,陈兴伟,陈莹.晋江西溪流域洪水与暴雨时空分布特征的相关分析[J].资源科学,2011,33(12):2 226-2 231.
[11]侯精明,郭凯华,王志力,等.设计暴雨雨型对城市内涝影响数值模拟[J].水科学进展,2017,28(6):820-828.
[12]张倩,苏保林,袁军营.城市居民小区SWMM降雨径流过程模拟---以营口市贵都花园小区为例[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,48(3):276-281.
[13]陈利者,李致家,李巧玲,等.我国降雨泾流关系的区域规律研究[J].水力发电,2014,40(3):8-11.
[14]李燕,孙永寿,朱朝霞.HEC-HMS及其在篓子沟流域的应用研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2009,(3):47-49.
[15]吕林英.无资料地区产汇流计算方法研究[D].郑州:郑州大学,2015.
[16]国家防汛抗旱总指挥部办公室,中国水利水电科学研究院,全国山洪灾害防治项目组.山洪灾害分析评价技术要求[R].2014.
[17]王彬雁,赵琳娜,巩远发,等.北京降雨过程分型特征及短历时降雨重现期研究[J].暴雨灾害,2015,34(4):302-308.
[18]Powell M J D.An efficient method for finding the minimum of a function of several variables without calculating derivatives[J].Computer Journal,1964,197(2):155-162.
[19]李伟,蒲浩,彭先宝.基于方向加速法的铁路既有线平面重构优化算法[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2009,6(3):47-51.
[20]王江婷,杨同春,李伟,等.基于降雨洪峰关系曲线的沿河村落预警指标确定[J].水文,2017,37(2):36-41.