信用评级信息效应对证券分析师盈余预测的影响
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摘要
信用评级信息价值的产生有受评公司和信息增量两个渠道。通过信用评级对分析师盈余预测准确度的影响研究,直接实证检验信用评级的信息价值,结果发现:信用评级会激励部分企业改善其信息披露质量,这种信息效应将提高分析师对该类公司的盈余预测准确度;信用评级产生的增量信息效应会显著改善小公司的盈余预测准确度,但对大公司的盈余预测没有显著改善。因此,对金融市场和金融工具的监管应完全放开对信用评级等级的依赖,同时改变信用评级行业单一获利渠道,促进我国信用评级行业的健康持续发展。
The value of credit rating information is displayed by two channels, the companies being rated and theincremental information. The value of credit rating information can be directly tested in an empirical way byanalyzing the effect of credit rating on the earnings forecast of securities analysts. The study demonstrates twoconclusions: credit rating will stimulate some companies to improve the quality of their information disclosureand the information effect achieved will increase the accuracy of earnings forecast of these companies by theanalysts; the incremental information effect of credit rating can significantly improve the earnings forecast ofsmall companies and has no remarkable effect on that of big companies. Therefore, the regulation of financialmarket and financial instrument should get rid of the dependence on credit rating and change the single channelof profit-making of the credit rating industry, in order to promote the consistent and sound development of China'scredit rating industry.
The value of credit rating information is displayed by two channels, the companies being rated and theincremental information. The value of credit rating information can be directly tested in an empirical way byanalyzing the effect of credit rating on the earnings forecast of securities analysts. The study demonstrates twoconclusions: credit rating will stimulate some companies to improve the quality of their information disclosureand the information effect achieved will increase the accuracy of earnings forecast of these companies by theanalysts; the incremental information effect of credit rating can significantly improve the earnings forecast ofsmall companies and has no remarkable effect on that of big companies. Therefore, the regulation of financialmarket and financial instrument should get rid of the dependence on credit rating and change the single channelof profit-making of the credit rating industry, in order to promote the consistent and sound development of China'scredit rating industry.
引文
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[13]Chen, Q., J. Francis, W. Jiang. Investor Learning about Analyst Predictive Ability[J].Journal of Accounting and Ecoonomics,2005(39):3-24.
[14]Irvine,P.J..Analysts Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading[J]. Review of Financial Studies,2004(14):1-27.
[15]郭杰,洪洁瑛.中国证券分析师的盈余预测行为有效性研究[J].经济研究,2009(11):55-67.
[2]Raghav Dhawan, Fan Yu. Are Credit Ratings Relevant in China’s Corporate Bond Market?[J].The Chinese Economy,2015(48):235–250.
[3]赵静,方兆本.中国公司债信用价差决定因素:基于结构化理论的实证分析[J].管理科学与工程,2011(11):138-148.
[4]秦凤鸣.信用评级悖论与利益博弈研究评述[J].经济学动态,2011(4):152-155.
[5]何平,金梦.信用评级在中国债券市场的影响力研究[J].金融研究,2010(4):15-28.
[6]程盟,刘万才.用显著性检验方法判断信用评级对企业债券市场定价的影响力[J].征信,2011(4):16-19.
[7]沈红波,廖冠民.信用评级机构可以提供增量信息吗:基于短期融资券的实证检验[J].财贸经济,2014(8):62-70.
[8]胡臻.中国信用评级对债券回报率的影响分析[J].南方金融,2011(2):64-68.
[9]李明明,秦凤鸣.中国信用评级的信息价值研究[J].产业经济评论,2012(9):149-182.
[10]James E. Hunton, Ruth Ann McEwen. An Assessment of Relation between Analysts’ Earnings Forecast Accuracy,Motivational Incentives and Cognitive Information Search Strategy[J].The Accounting Review,1997(1):497-513.
[11]Ahmed A.S., Nainar S. M. K., Zhou J.. Do Analysts’Earnings Forecasts Fully Reflect the Information in Accruals?[J].Canadian Journal of Administrative Sciences,2005(4):329-342.
[12]Gervais,S., T.Odean. Learning to be Overconfident[J].Review of Financial Studies,2001(14):1-27.
[13]Chen, Q., J. Francis, W. Jiang. Investor Learning about Analyst Predictive Ability[J].Journal of Accounting and Ecoonomics,2005(39):3-24.
[14]Irvine,P.J..Analysts Forecasts and Brokerage-Firm Trading[J]. Review of Financial Studies,2004(14):1-27.
[15]郭杰,洪洁瑛.中国证券分析师的盈余预测行为有效性研究[J].经济研究,2009(11):55-67.