中日韩旅游服务贸易依存度与贡献度态势变化分析
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摘要
中日韩是东亚地区三个经济发达、出入境旅游互动最为活跃的国家。依据1995—2016年的客流量与消费额数据,重新界定了旅游依存度与增长贡献度的概念,从三维互动的视角分析了三国旅游贸易依存度与增长贡献度的时空变化。结果发现:2008年之前,中国入境大于出境(顺差),对日韩的客源市场依存度高,日韩入境游客的花费对我国旅游增长贡献度大; 2009年之后,中国出境旅游异军突起,2012年后达到逆差(出境大于入境),日韩对我国出境旅游依存度显著增高,中国游客在日韩的高消费拉高了对日韩的增长贡献度;日韩旅游互动相对平稳,2010年前日本出境韩国客流量较大,此后随着我国出境旅游的快速崛起出现反转,日韩之间依存度下降,增长贡献度有所降低。
China,Japan and Korea were the most three developed countries in East Asia,with the most active interaction between inbound and outbound tourism. Based on the relevant data from 1995 to 2015,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of the degree of dependence and contribution of tourism trade between the three countries from the perspective of three-dimensional interaction. The results showed: Before 2008 China's entry exit was greater than surplus,from the tourist market of Korean high dependence,Korean inbound tourists spent growth and contribution to China' s tourism growth,after 2009 China' s outbound tourism in 2012 after more than a new force suddenly rose. Japan and Korea on China' s outbound tourism dependence the degree of increase,China' s outbound traffic and spending growth contribution to Korea tourism growth increased significantly,20 years in Japan and Korean tourism interaction and growth was relatively stable,in 2010 before the Japanese outbound traffic was high,the Korean market reversal,with the rapid rise of China's outbound tourism,Korean tourism interaction dependence of the relative decline of growth the degree was also reduced.
China,Japan and Korea were the most three developed countries in East Asia,with the most active interaction between inbound and outbound tourism. Based on the relevant data from 1995 to 2015,this paper analyzed the temporal and spatial changes of the degree of dependence and contribution of tourism trade between the three countries from the perspective of three-dimensional interaction. The results showed: Before 2008 China's entry exit was greater than surplus,from the tourist market of Korean high dependence,Korean inbound tourists spent growth and contribution to China' s tourism growth,after 2009 China' s outbound tourism in 2012 after more than a new force suddenly rose. Japan and Korea on China' s outbound tourism dependence the degree of increase,China' s outbound traffic and spending growth contribution to Korea tourism growth increased significantly,20 years in Japan and Korean tourism interaction and growth was relatively stable,in 2010 before the Japanese outbound traffic was high,the Korean market reversal,with the rapid rise of China's outbound tourism,Korean tourism interaction dependence of the relative decline of growth the degree was also reduced.
引文
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[3]李振亭,马耀峰,李创新,等.近20年来中国入境旅游流流量与流质的变化分析[J].陕西师范大学学报(自然科学版),2012,40(1)∶94-99.
[4]Jordan Shan,Ken Wilson. Causality between Trade and Tourism:Empirical Evidence from China[J]. Applied Economics Letters,2001,8(4)∶279-283.
[5]Satheesh Aradhyula,Russell Tronstad. Does Tourism Remote Crossborder Trade[J]. 2003,85(3)∶569-579.
[6]王洁洁,孙根年,舒镜镜. 20年来中美关系及危机事件对旅游流双向互动的影响[J].旅游学刊,2009,24(5)∶12-19.
[7]王洁洁,孙根年,马丽君,等.中韩出入境旅游对进出口贸易推动作用的实证分析[J].软科学,2010,24(8)∶30-35.
[8]马丽君,孙根年,王洁洁,等. 15年来中日出入境旅游对双边贸易的影响[J].经济地理,2010,30(4)∶672-677.
[9]沈利生.论外贸依存度——兼论计算外贸依存度的新公式[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2005,(7)∶15-24.
[10]孙梦阳.我国旅游服务贸易的区域内出口依存度分析[J].商业时代,2014,(11)∶31-32.
[11]何姝.中美服务贸易依存度与贡献度相关问题研究[J].现代商业,2014,(3)∶69.
[12]刘军胜,马耀峰,李振亭. 1997—2010年中部六省入境旅游流集散时空动态分析[J].地理科学,2013,33(4)∶450-456.
[13]孙根年,周功梅,李红.中美入境旅游,谁的市场更大——基于多样性、重要性、旅游偏好及市场吨位的比较[J].旅游科学,2015,29(3)∶15-26.
[14]孙根年,王洁洁. 1987年来台海关系变化对台湾入境大陆客流量的影响[J].地理学报,2009,64(12)∶1513-1522.
[15]周露,孙根年. 20年来中日韩三国出入境旅游互动关系分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(1)∶175-182.
[16]国家旅游局.中国旅游统计年鉴.北京:中国旅游出版社,1995-2015.
[17]日本观光厅[EB/OL]. http://www. mlit. go. jp/kankocho/zh-cn/.
[18]韩国统计局[EB/OL]. http://kosis. kr/eng/.
[19]全球数据库[EB/OL]. http://databank. worldbank. org/.