延安市近60年降水时空特征分析
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摘要
为提高对延安市降水时空特征的认识,利用延安市境内15个雨量站1956-2015年的降水资料,运用滑动平均法、累计距平法、R/S分析法、Mann-Kendall检验法和小波分析法分析了研究区降水的年内空间分布特征和年际空间变化特征。结果表明:研究区降水年内分布极不均匀,主要集中在汛期(6-9月),汛期降水占全年降水的70%;年降水呈"增-减-增"的波动减少趋势,减少幅度约8 mm/10a,于1969年出现突变,且降水序列变化具有正持续性;降水序列具有31 a尺度的第一主周期,由15 a尺度的周期特征预计未来几年降水量呈减少趋势;降水空间分布不均,呈"东南多,西北少"的特征,年降水量差值超过130 mm;绝大部分地区降水量呈下降趋势,下降幅度最大的区域为志丹县西南部,南部黄龙山区降水量略微增长。
The aim of the research is to improve the understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics about precipitation in Yan'an. The annual and spatial distribution characteristics,the interannual and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation are analyzed based on precipitation data from 15 rainfall stations in Yan'an from 1956 to 2015. The methods,such as a moving-average,accumulative anomaly,R/S analysis,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis,are used here. The results show that: the annual distribution of precipitation in Yan 'an is extremely uneven,precipitation is mainly concentrated in the flood season( June to September),and the precipitation in flood season accounts for 70% of the whole year precipitation; the annual precipitation shows a decreasing trend of " increase-decrease-increase "fluctuation,whose decline rate is about 8 mm/10 a,and the annual precipitation changed abruptly in 1969 and the sequence of precipitation has a positive continuity; the first main period of annual precipitation change is 31 years,and it can be forecasted that precipitation of Yan 'an in the next few years will decrease according to the periodic feature of 15-year scale; the spatial distribution of precipitation in Yan'an is uneven,which is characterized by "the southeast is more,and the northwest is less ",and the difference value is more than 130 mm. The precipitation in most areas of the city has been declining,the area which declined most quickly is the southwest of Zhidan County,while the precipitation in the south of Huanglong mountain area increased slightly.
The aim of the research is to improve the understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics about precipitation in Yan'an. The annual and spatial distribution characteristics,the interannual and spatial variation characteristics of precipitation are analyzed based on precipitation data from 15 rainfall stations in Yan'an from 1956 to 2015. The methods,such as a moving-average,accumulative anomaly,R/S analysis,Mann-Kendall test and wavelet analysis,are used here. The results show that: the annual distribution of precipitation in Yan 'an is extremely uneven,precipitation is mainly concentrated in the flood season( June to September),and the precipitation in flood season accounts for 70% of the whole year precipitation; the annual precipitation shows a decreasing trend of " increase-decrease-increase "fluctuation,whose decline rate is about 8 mm/10 a,and the annual precipitation changed abruptly in 1969 and the sequence of precipitation has a positive continuity; the first main period of annual precipitation change is 31 years,and it can be forecasted that precipitation of Yan 'an in the next few years will decrease according to the periodic feature of 15-year scale; the spatial distribution of precipitation in Yan'an is uneven,which is characterized by "the southeast is more,and the northwest is less ",and the difference value is more than 130 mm. The precipitation in most areas of the city has been declining,the area which declined most quickly is the southwest of Zhidan County,while the precipitation in the south of Huanglong mountain area increased slightly.
引文
[1]王小军,贺瑞敏,尚熳廷.榆林市降水时空变化规律研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(5):103-108.
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[3]宋扬,周维博,马亚鑫,等.50年来灞河流域降水变化特征分析[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(7):12-18.
[4]王晖,隆霄,马旭林,等.近50a中国西北地区东部降水特征[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):712-718.
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[8]琚彤军,石辉,胡庆.延安市近50年来降水特征及趋势变化的小波分析研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2008,26(4):230-235.
[9]张乘千.延安市降雨与黄土滑坡相关性分析[D].西安:长安大学,2014.
[10]吴晓娟.延安地区泥石流(泥流)形成机理研究[D].西安:西北大学,2014.
[11]李斌,解建仓,胡彦华,等.1951-2013年延安降水特征与典型暴雨分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(12):190-197.
[12]马荣.延安市45年降水变化趋势及突变特征分析[J].延安大学学报(自然科学版),2016,35(3):95-99.
[13]金保明.Kendall与R/S分析法在降雨特性分析中的应用[J].水力发电,2014,40(7):26-28.
[14]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[15]翟晓丽.关中盆地降水变化趋势研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2012.
[16]王艳姣,闫峰.1960-2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1354-1363.
[2]常肖杰,沈冰,黄领梅.1976-2010年榆林市降水时空变化趋势分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(2):30-35.
[3]宋扬,周维博,马亚鑫,等.50年来灞河流域降水变化特征分析[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(7):12-18.
[4]王晖,隆霄,马旭林,等.近50a中国西北地区东部降水特征[J].干旱区研究,2013,30(4):712-718.
[5]张文纲,李述训,庞强强.青藏高原40年来降水量时空变化趋势[J].水科学进展,2009,20(2):168-176.
[6]从辉,周维博,宋扬,等.1970-2013年大西安地区降水时空变化特征分析[J].长江科学院院报,2017,34(8):18-23+29.
[7]徐盼盼,王海科,钱会,等.铜川市降水变化及趋势预测分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2016,27(3):82-86+90.
[8]琚彤军,石辉,胡庆.延安市近50年来降水特征及趋势变化的小波分析研究[J].干旱地区农业研究,2008,26(4):230-235.
[9]张乘千.延安市降雨与黄土滑坡相关性分析[D].西安:长安大学,2014.
[10]吴晓娟.延安地区泥石流(泥流)形成机理研究[D].西安:西北大学,2014.
[11]李斌,解建仓,胡彦华,等.1951-2013年延安降水特征与典型暴雨分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(12):190-197.
[12]马荣.延安市45年降水变化趋势及突变特征分析[J].延安大学学报(自然科学版),2016,35(3):95-99.
[13]金保明.Kendall与R/S分析法在降雨特性分析中的应用[J].水力发电,2014,40(7):26-28.
[14]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,2007.
[15]翟晓丽.关中盆地降水变化趋势研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2012.
[16]王艳姣,闫峰.1960-2010年中国降水区域分异及年代际变化特征[J].地理科学进展,2014,33(10):1354-1363.