中国淘汰短链氯化石蜡的社会经济影响评价
|
摘要
利用成本效益分析法,设置5年和10年淘汰情景,对中国淘汰短链氯化石蜡(SCCPs)的成本和效益进行分析。淘汰SCCPs的成本为181.1~308.8亿元,主要来自下游行业替代损失,5年淘汰情景的成本低于10年淘汰情景;中国淘汰SCCPs的收益为1462.6亿元,建议采用5年淘汰情景淘汰SCCPs。
The costs and benefits of phasing out short chain chlorinated paraffins(SCCPs) in China were analyzed under the 5-year and 10-year control scenarios by cost benefit analysis. The cost of phasing out SCCPs was 18.11 to 30.88 billion yuan, mainly from the substitution in downstream industries. The cost under the 5-year control scenario was less than the 10-year scenario. The benefit of phasing out SCCPs in China was 146.26 billion yuan. The 5-year control scenario was suggested for phasing out SCCPs.
The costs and benefits of phasing out short chain chlorinated paraffins(SCCPs) in China were analyzed under the 5-year and 10-year control scenarios by cost benefit analysis. The cost of phasing out SCCPs was 18.11 to 30.88 billion yuan, mainly from the substitution in downstream industries. The cost under the 5-year control scenario was less than the 10-year scenario. The benefit of phasing out SCCPs in China was 146.26 billion yuan. The 5-year control scenario was suggested for phasing out SCCPs.
引文
[1]王琰,朱浩霖,李琦路,等.环境中氯化石蜡的研究进展.科技导报,2012,30(22):68–72
[2]王亚韡,蔡亚岐,江桂斌.斯德哥尔摩公约新增持久性有机污染物的一些研究进展.中国科学:化学,2010,53(2):99–123
[3]IARC.Summaries and evaluations:chlorinated paraffins(Group 2B),International Agency for Research on Cancer.1990,48:55
[4]Tomy G,Stern G,Lockhart W et al.Occurrence of C10–C13 polychlorinated n-alkanes in Canadian midlatitude and arctic lake sediments.Environmental Science&Technology,1999,33:2858–2863
[5]Reth M,Zencak Z,Oehme M.First study of congener group patterns and concentrations of short-and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins in fish from the North and Baltic Sea.Chemosphere,2005,58:847–854
[6]Reth M,Ciric A,Christensen G N,et al.Short-and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins in biota from the European Arctic—differences in homologue group patterns.Science of the Total Environment,2006,367:252–260
[7]Official Journal of the European Union.Amending Regulation(EC)No 850/2004 of the European Parliament and of the Council on persistent organic pollutants as regards Annex I[EB/OL].(2015–11–14)[2016–02].http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32015R2030&qid=1456368165695&from=EN
[8]李艳.纺织染整助剂中短链氯化石蜡的检测技术研究[D].杭州:浙江理工大学,2014
[9]陈茹,王亚韡,王璞,等.短链氯化石蜡在台州电子拆解地区的分布特征.环境化学,2014,33(6):873–879
[10]徐淳,徐建华,张剑波.中国短链氯化石蜡排放清单和预测.北京大学学报:自然科学版,2014,50(2):369–378
[11]OECD.Framework for integrating socio-economic analysis in chemical risk management decisionmaking.2000:ENV/JMMONO-2000-5
[12]Broomfield M,Whiting R,Lupi V,et al.Costs and benefits of the addition of hexabromocyclododecane(HBCD)to the stockholm convention and the 1998POPs protocols.London:AEA Technology plc,2010
[13]朱建新,胡新涛.中国持久性有机污染物废弃库存项目环境效益分析//持久性有机污染物论坛2009暨持久性有机污染物全国学术研讨会.宁波,2009:229-230
[14]徐淳.中国短链氯化石蜡清单和淘汰影响[D].北京:北京大学,2013
[15]廖虹云.硫丹生产企业周边污染状况及人体健康风险初步评价研究[D].北京:北京大学,2012
[16]赵子鹰.中国滴滴涕淘汰情景分析与选择[D].北京:北京大学,2004
[17]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2015
[18]边策,姜延书,丁乐臣.淘汰含DDT防污漆及替代品社会经济影响评估及建议.金融经济,2008(18):103–104
[19]彭志龙.中国投入产出表.北京:中国统计出版社,2009
[20]石玲,马炜,孙玉军,等.基于游客支付意愿的生态补偿经济价值评估:以武汉素山寺国家森林公园为例.长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(2):180–188
[21]江苏省统计局.江苏统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2015
[2]王亚韡,蔡亚岐,江桂斌.斯德哥尔摩公约新增持久性有机污染物的一些研究进展.中国科学:化学,2010,53(2):99–123
[3]IARC.Summaries and evaluations:chlorinated paraffins(Group 2B),International Agency for Research on Cancer.1990,48:55
[4]Tomy G,Stern G,Lockhart W et al.Occurrence of C10–C13 polychlorinated n-alkanes in Canadian midlatitude and arctic lake sediments.Environmental Science&Technology,1999,33:2858–2863
[5]Reth M,Zencak Z,Oehme M.First study of congener group patterns and concentrations of short-and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins in fish from the North and Baltic Sea.Chemosphere,2005,58:847–854
[6]Reth M,Ciric A,Christensen G N,et al.Short-and medium-chain chlorinated paraffins in biota from the European Arctic—differences in homologue group patterns.Science of the Total Environment,2006,367:252–260
[7]Official Journal of the European Union.Amending Regulation(EC)No 850/2004 of the European Parliament and of the Council on persistent organic pollutants as regards Annex I[EB/OL].(2015–11–14)[2016–02].http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32015R2030&qid=1456368165695&from=EN
[8]李艳.纺织染整助剂中短链氯化石蜡的检测技术研究[D].杭州:浙江理工大学,2014
[9]陈茹,王亚韡,王璞,等.短链氯化石蜡在台州电子拆解地区的分布特征.环境化学,2014,33(6):873–879
[10]徐淳,徐建华,张剑波.中国短链氯化石蜡排放清单和预测.北京大学学报:自然科学版,2014,50(2):369–378
[11]OECD.Framework for integrating socio-economic analysis in chemical risk management decisionmaking.2000:ENV/JMMONO-2000-5
[12]Broomfield M,Whiting R,Lupi V,et al.Costs and benefits of the addition of hexabromocyclododecane(HBCD)to the stockholm convention and the 1998POPs protocols.London:AEA Technology plc,2010
[13]朱建新,胡新涛.中国持久性有机污染物废弃库存项目环境效益分析//持久性有机污染物论坛2009暨持久性有机污染物全国学术研讨会.宁波,2009:229-230
[14]徐淳.中国短链氯化石蜡清单和淘汰影响[D].北京:北京大学,2013
[15]廖虹云.硫丹生产企业周边污染状况及人体健康风险初步评价研究[D].北京:北京大学,2012
[16]赵子鹰.中国滴滴涕淘汰情景分析与选择[D].北京:北京大学,2004
[17]国家统计局.中国统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2015
[18]边策,姜延书,丁乐臣.淘汰含DDT防污漆及替代品社会经济影响评估及建议.金融经济,2008(18):103–104
[19]彭志龙.中国投入产出表.北京:中国统计出版社,2009
[20]石玲,马炜,孙玉军,等.基于游客支付意愿的生态补偿经济价值评估:以武汉素山寺国家森林公园为例.长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(2):180–188
[21]江苏省统计局.江苏统计年鉴.北京:中国统计出版社,2015