摘要
基于1982~2011年第三代GIMMS NDVI数据,利用累计NDVI的Logistic曲线曲率极值法、Logistic曲线曲率变化率法和NDVI变化率法等方法,识别了蒙古高原植被生长季开始日期(Start of Growing Season,SOS)、生长季结束日期(End of Growing Season,EOS)和生长季长度(Length of Growing Season,LOS)等物候参数,并分析了其时空变化特征。结果表明:累计NDVI的Logistic曲线曲率极值法和NDVI变化率法在蒙古高原植被区具有较好的物候识别能力,对两种方法识别的物候参数求平均一定程度上可提高研究区物候参数的识别精度。蒙古高原植被SOS一般从4月中旬到5月下旬开始,到9月下旬至10月中旬结束,生长季长度主要集中在125~175d之间。在空间上,蒙古高原湿润半湿润地区的SOS较早、EOS较晚和LOS更长,而干旱半干旱地区的SOS较晚、EOS更早和LOS更短。时间变化分析表明,在30a的观测尺度,约占研究区51.6%和33.9%地区的SOS分别呈提前和推迟趋势,其中21.2%和12.4%地区的变化为显著;约占研究区35.6%和49.8%的地区EOS分别呈推迟和提前趋势,其中8.2%和12.0%地区的变化为显著。受SOS和EOS的影响,40.3%的地区(17.8%为显著)主要以缩短为主,44.8%的地区(18.9%为显著)主要以延长为主。
Based on the third generation GIMMS NDVI time-series datasets during 1982~2011,we extracted the start of growing season(SOS),end of growing season(EOS)and length of growing season(LOS)in the Mongolian Plateau using cumulative NDVI based logistic regression curves,change rate of curvature in NDVI logistic regression curves and change rate method of NDVI and further analyzed the spatio-temporal changes of phenology.The results showed that the cumulative NDVI based logistic regression curves and change rate method of NDVI performed better predictions in SOS and EOS modeling,and the mean value of these two methods improved the extraction accuracy of phenology in the Mongolian Plateau.SOS in the Mongolian Plateau mostly started from the middle of April to the end of May and ended from the end of the September to the middle of the October.Most LOS ranged from 125 to 175 days.Spatially,the earlier SOS,later SOS and longer LOS occurred in the humid and sub-humid area of the plateau,and later SOS,earlier EOS and shorter LOS occurred in arid and semi-arid regions of the plateau.Temporally,during the 30-year observation period,approximately,51.6% and 33.9% of the plateau experienced advanced and delayed SOS,respectively,and 21.2% and 12.4% of which are statistically significant;Approximately,35.6% and 49.8% of the study area experienced delayed EOS,respectively,and 8.2% and 12.0% of which are statistically significant;Accordingly,40.3%(17.8%are significant)and 44.8%(18.9%are significant)of the plateau showed shortening and lengthening of the LOS.
引文
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