外国援助如何影响外商直接投资流入?——来自卢旺达的证据
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摘要
本研究的目的在于探讨外国援助在短期和长期范围内对外商直接投资流入的影响。本文以卢旺达为例,采用向量机误差修正模型(VECM)和方差分解进行实证检验。研究结果表明,外援的影响在短期内是不存在的;而随着时间的推移,这种影响会逐渐变强、变消极,表现为一种挤出效应。这一发现要求定期对外援政策进行严格的审查。事实上,外援政策应被视为一个灵活的文件,其发展和变化都应该适应受援国经济发展道路上的每一步。我们应当竭尽全力去避免无休止的对外援助。
引文
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[2] UN. Graduation from the LDC category. 2018[cited2019 24 December]; Available from:https://www.un.org/development/desa/dpad/least-developed-country-category/ldc-graduation.html.
[3] Donaubauer, J., B. Meyer, and P. Nunnenkamp,Aid, Infrastructure, and FDI:Assessing the Transmission Channel with a New Index of Infrastructure. World Development, 2016.78:p. 230-245.
[4] Harms, P. and M. Lutz, Aid, governance and private foreign investment:some puzzling findings for the 1990s.The Economic Journal, 2006.116(513):p.773-790.
[5] Blaise, S.,On the link between Japanese ODA and FDI in China:A microeconomic evaluation using conditional logit analysis. Applied Economics, 2005. 37(1):p. 51-55.
[6] Kimura, H. and Y. Todo, Is foreign aid a vanguard of foreign direct investment? A gravity-equation approach.World Development, 2010. 38(4):p. 482-497.
[7] Burnside, C. and D. Dollar, Aid, policies, and growth. American economic review, 2000. 90(4):p. 847-868.
[8] Rodrik, D., Why is there multilateral lending?,1995, National Bureau of Economic Research.
[9] Harms, P. and M. Rauber, Foreign aid and developing countries'creditworthiness, 2004, Working Paper,Study Center Gerzensee.
[10] Selaya, P. and E.R. Sunesen, Does foreign aid increase foreign direct investment? World Development, 2012.40(11):p.2155-2176.
[11] Karakaplan, U., B. Neyapti, and S. Sayek, Aid and foreign direct investment:International evidence, 2005,Discussion Paper, Turkish Economic Association.
[12] Thangamani, B., C. Xu, and C. Zhong,The relationship between foreign aid and FDI in South Asian Economies. International Journal of Economics and Finance,2011.3(2):p. 143.
[13] Donaubauer, J., D. Herzer, and P.Nunnenkamp, Does aid for education attract foreign investors?An empirical analysis for Latin America. The European Journal of Development Research, 2014. 26(5):p. 597-613.
[14] Kapfer, S., R. Nielsen, and D. Nielson. If you build it, will they come? Foreign aid's effects on foreign direct investment:in MPSA National Conference. 2007.