易灾牧区红原县雪灾预警气象因子主成分分析
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摘要
红原县冬春两季雪灾发生频繁,对当地畜牧业生产危害极大。本文通过分析2004~2013年10次典型的雪灾记录,用线性回归分析的方法比较雪灾前一年、前一月、前十日和前五日各气象因子与降雪量的相关关系,确定了雪灾前十日的气象因子与降雪量的相关性最大,其R2=0.98。雪灾前十日气象因子及其变化直接关系到雪灾的发生和严重程度。利用主成分分析近30年的118次典型降雪记录,结果表明:Xc3(雪灾前十日日均最低温度)、Xc2(雪灾前十日平均温度)、Xc10(雪灾前十日最高温度变化)、Xc7(雪灾前十日日均日照时数)、Xc11(雪灾前十日风速的变化)和Xc4(雪灾前十日平均最高温度)是6个主成分。此结果对建立雪灾前气候判别及预警等应用模型都有重要的意义。
Snow disaster occurred frequently in both spring and winter in Hongyuan County, Sichuan province. It destroyed the local forage and livestock system hardly. In this research, Linear regression analysis be used to comparing the relationship between snowfall and meteorological factors for 5 different time period during the recent 10 years(from 2004 to 2013), such as the previous year, a month before, 10 days before and 5 days before. As a result, Identified the climate factors of ten days before had highest correlation index(R2=0.98) with snowfall. Climate factors before ten day of snowstorm and their changes directly related to the occurrence and severity of the snowstorms. Analyzed the ten days climate factors before snowstorms including 118 samples during the recent 30-year, used the principal component analysis to confirm main factors in meteorological factor system. The result show 6 principal components in the ten before snowstorm systems, include Xc3(daily mean minimum temperature), Xc2(daily mean temperature), Xc10(maximum temperature changes), Xc7(daily sunshine hours), Xc11(windy speed changes), and Xc4(daily mean maximum temperature). The found can be use as a statistic method for climate data in creating models for snow disaster early warming.
Snow disaster occurred frequently in both spring and winter in Hongyuan County, Sichuan province. It destroyed the local forage and livestock system hardly. In this research, Linear regression analysis be used to comparing the relationship between snowfall and meteorological factors for 5 different time period during the recent 10 years(from 2004 to 2013), such as the previous year, a month before, 10 days before and 5 days before. As a result, Identified the climate factors of ten days before had highest correlation index(R2=0.98) with snowfall. Climate factors before ten day of snowstorm and their changes directly related to the occurrence and severity of the snowstorms. Analyzed the ten days climate factors before snowstorms including 118 samples during the recent 30-year, used the principal component analysis to confirm main factors in meteorological factor system. The result show 6 principal components in the ten before snowstorm systems, include Xc3(daily mean minimum temperature), Xc2(daily mean temperature), Xc10(maximum temperature changes), Xc7(daily sunshine hours), Xc11(windy speed changes), and Xc4(daily mean maximum temperature). The found can be use as a statistic method for climate data in creating models for snow disaster early warming.
引文
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[5]刘兴元,梁天刚,郭正刚,等.北疆牧区雪灾预警与风险评估方法[J].应用生态学报,2008,19(1):133-138.
[6]泽柏,但其明,李昌平,等.川西北牧区草地畜牧业可持续发展对策研究[J].草业与畜牧,2008,(8):1-7.
[7]童文林.川西高原牧区雪灾长期预报方法研究[J].四川气象,1998,18(1):10-13.
[8]青泉,张政.阿坝牧区雪灾的短期气候预测[J].四川气象,1998,18(4):39-43.
[9]李德友.川西北大草原雪灾气候特征与预报模型研究[D].兰州大学,2006.11.
[10]李德友,陶建,夏炳江,等.川西高原牧区雪灾气象指数等级划分及标准研究[A].高原山地气象研究暨西南区域气象学术交流会论文集,2009.451-453.
[11]沈敏,蒲珉锴,王筱卉,等.红原县草地荒漠化现状及治理对策初探[J].草业与畜牧,2009,(8):28-31.
[12]张鹏.基于主成分分析的综合评价研究[D].南京理工大学,2004.6.
[13]任若恩,王惠文.多元统计数据分析[M].北京:国防工业出版社,1997.
[14]鲁安新,冯学智,曾群柱,等.西藏那曲牧区雪灾因子主成分分析[J].冰川冻土,1997,19(2):86-91.