气候变化条件下樱桃绕实蝇在中国的潜在地理分布预测
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摘要
樱桃绕实蝇Rhagoletis cerasi(L.)被我国列为进境检疫性有害生物,目前在我国尚无分布报道。为明确该虫在我国的适生区及适生程度,利用CLIMEX地点比较模型预测在当前以及未来2030、2080年A1B与A2两种不同排放情景下樱桃绕实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布。结果显示,樱桃绕实蝇在我国的潜在地理分布包括长江以北的大部分地区,随着气候变化,到2030年与2080年,樱桃绕实蝇的低度适生区、中度适生区面积均增加,高度适生区面积减少,其中在2030年A1B排放情景下樱桃绕实蝇的总适生区面积增加了48.4万km~2,在2030年的A2情景下与2080年的A1B与A2情景下总适生区面积分别减少了3.4、5.7、5.7万km~2。因此,为保护我国樱桃种植业的安全生产,应加强对该虫的检疫力度,防止其传入我国。
The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi(L.)(Diptera: Tephritidae) has been listed as the quarantine pest and currently absent in China. In order to understand the suitable area and suitable levels of this fly in China, CLIMEX was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of R. cerasi under current and future climate conditions. The results showed that the potential geographical distribution of this pest was north of Yangtze River. With the climate change, the marginal and suitable range of this pest in China would increase and the optimal range would decrease in 2030 and 2080. The overall suitable range would increase by 48.4×10~4 km~2 under 2030 A1 B scenario and decrease by 3.4×10~4, 5.7×10~4,5.7×10~4 km~2 under 2030 A2 and 2080 A1 B, A2 scenarios, respectively. Quarantine measures of R. cerasi should be strengthened in order to prevent its introduction and protect the cherry industry in China.
The European cherry fruit fly, Rhagoletis cerasi(L.)(Diptera: Tephritidae) has been listed as the quarantine pest and currently absent in China. In order to understand the suitable area and suitable levels of this fly in China, CLIMEX was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of R. cerasi under current and future climate conditions. The results showed that the potential geographical distribution of this pest was north of Yangtze River. With the climate change, the marginal and suitable range of this pest in China would increase and the optimal range would decrease in 2030 and 2080. The overall suitable range would increase by 48.4×10~4 km~2 under 2030 A1 B scenario and decrease by 3.4×10~4, 5.7×10~4,5.7×10~4 km~2 under 2030 A2 and 2080 A1 B, A2 scenarios, respectively. Quarantine measures of R. cerasi should be strengthened in order to prevent its introduction and protect the cherry industry in China.
引文
CFIA.2017.Rhagoletis cerasi(European Cherry Fruit Fly)-fact sheet http://www.inspection.gc.ca/plants/plant-pests-invasive-species/insects/european-cherry-fruit-fly/fact-sheet/eng/1467913088353/1467914654510(2017-7-27)
Daniel C,Grunder J.2012.Integrated management of European cherry fruit fly Rhagoletis cerasi(L.):situation in Switzerland and Europe.Insects,3(4):956-988
Dong ZK,Ge F.2011.The fitness of insects in response to climate warming.Chinese Journal of Applied Entomology,48(5):1141-1148(in Chinese)[董兆克,戈峰.2011.温度升高对昆虫发生发展的影响.应用昆虫学报,48(5):1141-1148]
Fruit Growers News.2017.European cherry fruit fly confirmed in Niagara County,New York.https://fruitgrowersnews.com/news/european-cherry-fruit-flyconfirmed-niagara-county-new-york/(2017-10-31)
Ge F.2011.Challenges facing entomologists in a changing global climate.Chinese Journal of Applied Entomology,48(5):1117-1122(in Chinese)[戈峰.2011.应对全球气候变化的昆虫学研究.应用昆虫学报,48(5):1117-1122]
IPCC.2007.Climate Change 2007.The Physical Science Basis:Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Kovanci OB,Kovanci B.2006a.Effect of altitude on seasonal flight activity of Rhagoletis cerasi flies(Diptera:Tephritidae).Bulletin of Entomological Research,96:345-351
Kovanci OB,Kovanci.B.2006b.Reduced-risk management of Rhagoletis cerasi flies(host race Prunus)in combination with a preliminary phenological model.Journal of Insect Science,6(1):1-10
Kriticos DJ,Kean JM,Phillips CB,Senay SD,Acosta H,Haye T.2017.The potential global distribution of the brown marmorated stink bug,Halyomorpha halys,a critical threat to plant biosecurity.Journal of Pest Science,90(4):1033-1043
Kriticos DJ,Maywald GF,Yonow T,Zurcher EJ,Herrmann NI,Sutherst RW.2015.CLIMEX version 4:exploring the effects of climate on plants,animals and diseases.Canberra:CSIRO
Kriticos DJ,Webber BL,Leriche A,Ota N,Macadam I,Bathols J,Scott JK.2012.CliMond:global high resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling.Methods in Ecology and Evolution,3(1):53-64
Li ZH.2015.Prevention and control of biological invasions:potential geographical distribution of economic important fruit flies.Beijing:China Agricultural University Press(in Chinese)[李志红.2015.生物入侵防控:重要经济实蝇潜在地理分布研究.北京:中国农业大学出版社]
Li ZH,Jiang F,Ma XL,Fang Y,Sun ZZ,Qin YJ,Wang QL.2013.Review on prevention and control techniques of Tephritidae invasion.Plant Quarantine,27(2):1-10(in Chinese)[李志红,姜帆,马兴莉,方焱,孙壮志,秦誉嘉,王巧铃.2013.实蝇科害虫入侵防控技术研究进展.植物检疫,27(2):1-10]
Moraiti CA,Nakas CT,Papadopoulos NT.2012.Prolonged pupal dormancy is associated with significant fitness cost for adults of Rhagoletis cerasi(Diptera:Tephritidae).Journal of Insect Physiology,58(8):1128-1135
Qin YJ,LüWC,Zhao SQ,Liu H,Li ZH.2018.Including irrigation and climate change in predicting the potential geographical distribution of Lobesia botrana in China.Journal of Plant Protection,45(3):599-605(in Chinese)[秦誉嘉,吕文诚,赵守歧,刘慧,李志红.2018.考虑灌溉及气候变化条件下葡萄花翅小卷蛾在中国的潜在地理分布.植物保护学报,45(3):599-605]
Stamenkovi?S,Peri?P,Milo?evi?D.2012.Rhagoletis cerasi Loew(Diptera:Tephritidae):biological characteristics,harmfulness,and control.Pesticidi I Fitomedicina,27(4):269-281
USDA-APHIS-PPQ.2017.Rhagoletis cerasi(Linnaeus)European cherry fruit fly.https://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant_health/plant_pest_info/fruit_fl ies/downloads/rhagoletis-cerasi-report.(2018-2-24)
Wang C,Zheng MH,Wang ZH,Qin YJ,Zhou X,Gong GX,Li ZH,Pan XB.2014.Review of the plant quarantine pest list and exploration of methods for its formulation.Plant Quarantine,28(3):1-7(in Chinese)[王聪,郑明慧,王振华,秦誉嘉,周贤,龚国祥,李志红,潘绪斌.2014.植物检疫性有害生物名单发展综述与制订方法探讨.植物检疫,28(3):1-7]
Wakie TT,Yee WL,Neven LG.2018.Assessing the risk of establishment of Rhagoletis cerasi(Diptera:Tephritidae)in the United States and globally.Journal of Economic Entomology,111(3):1275-1284
Yonow T,Kriticos DJ,Kirichenko N,Ota N.2018.Considering biology when inferring range-limiting stress mechanisms for agricultural pests:a case study of the beet armyworm.Journal of Pest Science,91(2):523-538
Zhang FX,Sun QT,Zhang X,Li SP,Tian CP,Jiang XL.2012.Status and development strategies of Chinese cherry industry.Yantai Fruit,(3):3-5(in Chinese)[张福兴,孙庆田,张序,李淑平,田长平,姜学玲.2012.我国大樱桃产业现状与发展对策.烟台果树,(3):3-5]
Zhang LY.2016.Analysis on the characteristics and development trend of Chinese cherry import.World Agriculture,(10):164-166(in Chinese)[张丽艳.2016.中国樱桃进口特点及发展趋势分析.世界农业,(10):164-166]
Daniel C,Grunder J.2012.Integrated management of European cherry fruit fly Rhagoletis cerasi(L.):situation in Switzerland and Europe.Insects,3(4):956-988
Dong ZK,Ge F.2011.The fitness of insects in response to climate warming.Chinese Journal of Applied Entomology,48(5):1141-1148(in Chinese)[董兆克,戈峰.2011.温度升高对昆虫发生发展的影响.应用昆虫学报,48(5):1141-1148]
Fruit Growers News.2017.European cherry fruit fly confirmed in Niagara County,New York.https://fruitgrowersnews.com/news/european-cherry-fruit-flyconfirmed-niagara-county-new-york/(2017-10-31)
Ge F.2011.Challenges facing entomologists in a changing global climate.Chinese Journal of Applied Entomology,48(5):1117-1122(in Chinese)[戈峰.2011.应对全球气候变化的昆虫学研究.应用昆虫学报,48(5):1117-1122]
IPCC.2007.Climate Change 2007.The Physical Science Basis:Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Kovanci OB,Kovanci B.2006a.Effect of altitude on seasonal flight activity of Rhagoletis cerasi flies(Diptera:Tephritidae).Bulletin of Entomological Research,96:345-351
Kovanci OB,Kovanci.B.2006b.Reduced-risk management of Rhagoletis cerasi flies(host race Prunus)in combination with a preliminary phenological model.Journal of Insect Science,6(1):1-10
Kriticos DJ,Kean JM,Phillips CB,Senay SD,Acosta H,Haye T.2017.The potential global distribution of the brown marmorated stink bug,Halyomorpha halys,a critical threat to plant biosecurity.Journal of Pest Science,90(4):1033-1043
Kriticos DJ,Maywald GF,Yonow T,Zurcher EJ,Herrmann NI,Sutherst RW.2015.CLIMEX version 4:exploring the effects of climate on plants,animals and diseases.Canberra:CSIRO
Kriticos DJ,Webber BL,Leriche A,Ota N,Macadam I,Bathols J,Scott JK.2012.CliMond:global high resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling.Methods in Ecology and Evolution,3(1):53-64
Li ZH.2015.Prevention and control of biological invasions:potential geographical distribution of economic important fruit flies.Beijing:China Agricultural University Press(in Chinese)[李志红.2015.生物入侵防控:重要经济实蝇潜在地理分布研究.北京:中国农业大学出版社]
Li ZH,Jiang F,Ma XL,Fang Y,Sun ZZ,Qin YJ,Wang QL.2013.Review on prevention and control techniques of Tephritidae invasion.Plant Quarantine,27(2):1-10(in Chinese)[李志红,姜帆,马兴莉,方焱,孙壮志,秦誉嘉,王巧铃.2013.实蝇科害虫入侵防控技术研究进展.植物检疫,27(2):1-10]
Moraiti CA,Nakas CT,Papadopoulos NT.2012.Prolonged pupal dormancy is associated with significant fitness cost for adults of Rhagoletis cerasi(Diptera:Tephritidae).Journal of Insect Physiology,58(8):1128-1135
Qin YJ,LüWC,Zhao SQ,Liu H,Li ZH.2018.Including irrigation and climate change in predicting the potential geographical distribution of Lobesia botrana in China.Journal of Plant Protection,45(3):599-605(in Chinese)[秦誉嘉,吕文诚,赵守歧,刘慧,李志红.2018.考虑灌溉及气候变化条件下葡萄花翅小卷蛾在中国的潜在地理分布.植物保护学报,45(3):599-605]
Stamenkovi?S,Peri?P,Milo?evi?D.2012.Rhagoletis cerasi Loew(Diptera:Tephritidae):biological characteristics,harmfulness,and control.Pesticidi I Fitomedicina,27(4):269-281
USDA-APHIS-PPQ.2017.Rhagoletis cerasi(Linnaeus)European cherry fruit fly.https://www.aphis.usda.gov/plant_health/plant_pest_info/fruit_fl ies/downloads/rhagoletis-cerasi-report.(2018-2-24)
Wang C,Zheng MH,Wang ZH,Qin YJ,Zhou X,Gong GX,Li ZH,Pan XB.2014.Review of the plant quarantine pest list and exploration of methods for its formulation.Plant Quarantine,28(3):1-7(in Chinese)[王聪,郑明慧,王振华,秦誉嘉,周贤,龚国祥,李志红,潘绪斌.2014.植物检疫性有害生物名单发展综述与制订方法探讨.植物检疫,28(3):1-7]
Wakie TT,Yee WL,Neven LG.2018.Assessing the risk of establishment of Rhagoletis cerasi(Diptera:Tephritidae)in the United States and globally.Journal of Economic Entomology,111(3):1275-1284
Yonow T,Kriticos DJ,Kirichenko N,Ota N.2018.Considering biology when inferring range-limiting stress mechanisms for agricultural pests:a case study of the beet armyworm.Journal of Pest Science,91(2):523-538
Zhang FX,Sun QT,Zhang X,Li SP,Tian CP,Jiang XL.2012.Status and development strategies of Chinese cherry industry.Yantai Fruit,(3):3-5(in Chinese)[张福兴,孙庆田,张序,李淑平,田长平,姜学玲.2012.我国大樱桃产业现状与发展对策.烟台果树,(3):3-5]
Zhang LY.2016.Analysis on the characteristics and development trend of Chinese cherry import.World Agriculture,(10):164-166(in Chinese)[张丽艳.2016.中国樱桃进口特点及发展趋势分析.世界农业,(10):164-166]