长江经济带水资源承载力评价及时空动态变化
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摘要
以长江经济带水资源承载力综合评价为中心,构建涵盖水资源、社会经济、生态等方面的水资源承载力综合评价指标体系。运用TOPSIS综合评价方法,测算研究了2007—2016年长江经济带11省市水资源承载力动态变化及区域差异,并利用ArcGIS 10.2软件,可视化2007年与2016年长江经济带11省市水资源承载力等级分布。结果表明:2007—2016年长江经济带水资源承载力呈波动上升趋势,承载力水平基本维持在警戒和中级水平;经济发达的东段地区水资源承载力高于经济欠发达的中段和西段地区,近年来差距不断扩大;长江经济带11省市水资源承载力年均增长率位于前三的分别是贵州、上海和云南,而湖北、重庆、四川年均增长率为负值;长江经济带各省市水资源承载力整体水平仍较低,且各省市间水资源承载力均衡性差异并未随着时间推移而产生大的改观。
Taking the comprehensive evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of the Yangtze River economic belt as the center,we constructed the comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity through water resources,society,economy and ecology.The dynamic changes and regional differences of water resources carrying capacity in 11 provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2007—2016 were calculated by using TOPSIS method.The ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to visualize the calculation results of carrying capacity of water resources in various provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2007 and 2016.The results showed that in 2007—2016,the carrying capacity of water resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt presented the upward trend of fluctuation,and the carrying capacity was basically maintained at the alert and intermediate level;the water resources carrying capacity of the economically developed eastern region was gradually higher than that in the underdeveloped middle and western regions,and the gap was expanding in recent years;the provinces or municipality with average annual growth rates of water resources carrying capacity ranked in the first three among the 11 provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are Guizhou Province,Shanghai,and Yunnan Province.the provinces or municipality with the negative annual average growth rate of water resources carrying capacity are Hubei,Chongqing and Sichuan.In general,the overall level of water resources carrying capacity of the provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Zone was still low,and the balance of water resources carrying capacity was low,and it did not change too much over the time.
Taking the comprehensive evaluation of the water resources carrying capacity of the Yangtze River economic belt as the center,we constructed the comprehensive evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity through water resources,society,economy and ecology.The dynamic changes and regional differences of water resources carrying capacity in 11 provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2007—2016 were calculated by using TOPSIS method.The ArcGIS 10.2 software was used to visualize the calculation results of carrying capacity of water resources in various provinces and cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt in 2007 and 2016.The results showed that in 2007—2016,the carrying capacity of water resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt presented the upward trend of fluctuation,and the carrying capacity was basically maintained at the alert and intermediate level;the water resources carrying capacity of the economically developed eastern region was gradually higher than that in the underdeveloped middle and western regions,and the gap was expanding in recent years;the provinces or municipality with average annual growth rates of water resources carrying capacity ranked in the first three among the 11 provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt are Guizhou Province,Shanghai,and Yunnan Province.the provinces or municipality with the negative annual average growth rate of water resources carrying capacity are Hubei,Chongqing and Sichuan.In general,the overall level of water resources carrying capacity of the provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Zone was still low,and the balance of water resources carrying capacity was low,and it did not change too much over the time.
引文
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[13]李高伟,韩美,刘莉,等.基于主成分分析的郑州市水资源承载力评价[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(3):139-142.
[14]郭倩,汪嘉杨,张碧.基于DPSIRM框架的区域水资源承载力综合评价[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(3):484-493.
[15]屈小娥.陕西省水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):91-97.
[16]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):258-269.
[17]吴一凡,雷国平,路昌,等.基于改进TOPSIS模型的大庆市城市土地利用绩效评价及障碍度诊断[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(4):85-90.
[18]郭显光.熵值法及其在综合评价中的应用[J].财贸研究,1994(6):56-60.
[19]刘民士,刘晓双,侯兰功.基于水足迹理论的安徽省水资源评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(2):220-224.
[2]鲍超,贺东梅.京津冀城市群水资源开发利用的时空特征与政策启示[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(1):58-67.
[3]谭佳音,蒋大奎.群链产业合作模式下“京津冀”区域水资源优化配置研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(4):160-166.
[4]屈小娥.陕西省水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):91-97.
[5]惠泱河,蒋晓辉,黄强,等.水资源承载力评价指标体系研究[J].水土保持通报,2001,21(1):30-34.
[6]王建华,姜大川,肖伟华,等.水资源承载力理论基础探析:定义内涵与科学问题[J].水利学报,2017,48(12):1399-1409.
[7]王建华,翟正丽,桑学锋,等.水资源承载力指标体系及评判准则研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(9):1023-1029.
[8]李焕,黄贤金,金雨泽,等.长江经济带水资源人口承载力研究[J].经济地理,2017,37(1):181-186.
[9]李玲玲,徐琳瑜.特大城市水资源承载力政策响应的动态模拟[J].中国环境科学,2017,37(11):4388-4393.
[10]马海良,施陈玲,王蕾.城镇化进程中的江苏水资源承载力研究:基于组合赋权和升半Γ型分布函数[J].长江流域资源与环境,2016,25(11):1697-1703.
[11]文扬,周楷,蒋姝睿,等.陆水流域水环境与水资源承载力研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2018,32(3):126-132.
[12]姜秋香,付强,王子龙.三江平原水资源承载力评价及区域差异[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(9):184-190.
[13]李高伟,韩美,刘莉,等.基于主成分分析的郑州市水资源承载力评价[J].地域研究与开发,2014,33(3):139-142.
[14]郭倩,汪嘉杨,张碧.基于DPSIRM框架的区域水资源承载力综合评价[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(3):484-493.
[15]屈小娥.陕西省水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(2):91-97.
[16]刘佳骏,董锁成,李泽红.中国水资源承载力综合评价研究[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(2):258-269.
[17]吴一凡,雷国平,路昌,等.基于改进TOPSIS模型的大庆市城市土地利用绩效评价及障碍度诊断[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(4):85-90.
[18]郭显光.熵值法及其在综合评价中的应用[J].财贸研究,1994(6):56-60.
[19]刘民士,刘晓双,侯兰功.基于水足迹理论的安徽省水资源评价[J].长江流域资源与环境,2014,23(2):220-224.