新型智能装甲作战系统体系贡献率评估研究
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摘要
针对装备体系贡献率评估关联因素复杂、评估难度大的问题,剖析装备体系贡献率概念和内涵,提出装备体系贡献率评估研究框架。以新型智能装甲作战系统体系贡献率评估为研究对象,从体系功能完备、体系结构优化、作战能力提升、体系技术进步等多视角构建了立体多层的评估指标体系。采用基于信度规则库的证据推理方法,开展新型智能装甲作战系统体系贡献率评估研究。结果表明:体系贡献率是装备系统地位作用的综合性表征,宜从多视角、多层次开展综合研究;基于信度规则库的证据推理方法是一种有效、科学、实用的装备体系贡献率评估方法。
In allusion to the problem that contribution rate evaluation of weapon equipment system has highly complexity and great difficulty due to multitudinous relation factors,a research framework is proposed based on the systematic analysis of contribution rate conception. For the contribution rate evaluation of a new intelligent armoured combat system,an evaluation index system is established from the viewpoints of functional completeness,architecture optimization,operational capability enhancement and technological progress. The contribution rate evaluation of a new intelligent armoured combat system is systematically studied by using an evidential reasoning approach based on the belief rule base. The result shows that the contribution rate of weapon equipment system is a comprehensive characteristic parameter describing the position and function of weapon equipment system,its evaluation must be systematically studied from multiviewpoints and multilevels,and the evidential reasoning approach based on the belief rule base is an effective,scientific and practical method for solving the contribution rate evaluation of weapon equipment system.
In allusion to the problem that contribution rate evaluation of weapon equipment system has highly complexity and great difficulty due to multitudinous relation factors,a research framework is proposed based on the systematic analysis of contribution rate conception. For the contribution rate evaluation of a new intelligent armoured combat system,an evaluation index system is established from the viewpoints of functional completeness,architecture optimization,operational capability enhancement and technological progress. The contribution rate evaluation of a new intelligent armoured combat system is systematically studied by using an evidential reasoning approach based on the belief rule base. The result shows that the contribution rate of weapon equipment system is a comprehensive characteristic parameter describing the position and function of weapon equipment system,its evaluation must be systematically studied from multiviewpoints and multilevels,and the evidential reasoning approach based on the belief rule base is an effective,scientific and practical method for solving the contribution rate evaluation of weapon equipment system.
引文
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[14]吕惠文,武庆春,张炜.基于灰色证据理论的装备体系贡献率评估[J].军事交通学院学报,2017,19(5):22-27.LYU Hui-wen,WU Qing-chun,ZHANG Wei.Equipment system contribution evaluation based on gray evidence theory[J].Journal of Military Transportation University,2017,19(5):22-27.(in Chinese)
[15]陈文英,张兵志,焦爱泉,等.装甲装备体系贡献率评估指标体系构建[C]∥全军武器装备体系研究第九届学术研讨会论文集.合肥:全军武器装备体系专业组,2015:146-150.CHEN Wen-ying,ZHANG Bing-zhi,JIAO Ai-quan,et al.Contribution ratio evaluation index system construction of the armoured combat system[C]∥Proceedings of the 9th Whole Army Symposium on Weapon Equipment System of Systems Research.Hefei:the Weapon Equipment System of Systems Research Professional Organization,2015:146-150.(in Chinese)
[16]张兵志,陈文英,石义群.信息化条件下新型装甲突击系统能力需求研究[C]∥全军武器装备体系研究第七届学术研讨会论文集.葫芦岛:全军武器装备体系专业组,2013:346-350.ZHANG Bing-zhi,CHEN Wen-ying,SHI Yi-qun.Capacity requirement study of the new type armoured combat system under the information conditions[C]∥Proceedings of the 7th Whole Army Symposium on Weapon Equipment System of Systems Research.Huludao:the Weapon Equipment System of Systems Research Professional Organization,2013:346-350.(in Chinese)
[17]Yang J B,Xu D L.On the evidential reasoning algorithm for multiple attribute decision analysis under uncertainty[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics-Part A:Systems and Humans,2002,32(3):289-304.
[18]Yang J B,Liu J,Wang J,et al.Belief rule-based inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach-RIMER[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics-Part A:Systems and Humans,2006,36(2):266-285.
[19]Shafer G.A mathematical theory of evidence[M].Princeton,NJ,US:Princeton University Press,1976.
[20]Zhou Z J,Hu C H,Xu D L B C.New model for system behavior prediction based on belief rule based systems[J].Information Sciences,2010,180(24):4834-4864.
[21]Zhou Z J,Hu C H,Zhang B C.Hidden behavior prediction of complex systems based on hybrid information[J].IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics,2013,43(2):402-411.
[22]Si X S,Hu C H,Yang J B,et al.A new prediction model based on belief rule base for system's behavior prediction[J].IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2011,19(4):636-651.
[23]Buchberger S G,Nadimpalli G.Leak estimation in water distribution systems by statistical analysis of flow readings[J].ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2004,130(4):321-329.
[24]Xu D L,Liu J,Yang J B,et al.Inference and learning methodology of belief-rule-based expert system for pipeline leak detection[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2007,32(1):103-113
[25]程贲,姜江,谭跃进,等.基于证据推理的武器装备体系能力需求满足度评估方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(11):2210-2216.CHENG Ben,JIANG Jiang,TAN Yue-jin,et al.A novel approach for WSo S capability requirement satisfactory degree evaluation using evidential reasoning[J].System Engineering Theory and Practice,2011,31(11):2210-2216.(in Chinese)
[26]程贲.基于能力的武器装备体系评估方法与应用研究[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2012.CHENG Ben.Capabilities-based weapon system-of-systems assessment methods and application research[D].Changsha:National University of Defense Technology,2012.(in Chinese)
[27]Wang Y M,Yang J B,Xu D L.Environmental impact assessment using the evidential reasoning approach[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2006,174:1885-1913.
[2]吴建宁,王选华.中国科技进步贡献度测度:一种新视角[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2013,34(8):1-10.WU Jian-ning,WANG Xuan-hua.Contribution rate on the progress of science and technology in China:a new perspective[J].Science of Science and Management of Science&Technology,2013,34(8):1-10.(in Chinese)
[3]田成诗.地区劳动力投入对其经济增长贡献的实证研究[J].大连民族学院学报,2006(6):52-54.TIAN Cheng-shi.The contribution of labour input to economic growth[J].Journal of Dalian Nationalities University,2006(6):52-54.(in Chinese)
[4]冯哲.互联网对中国GDP贡献度测算研究[D].北京:北京邮电大学,2011.FENG Zhe.Research on contribution degree evaluation of Internet to China's GDP[D].Beijing:Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications,2011.(in Chinese)
[5]王雷震,张帆,李春光.旅游对区域经济发展贡献度定量测度方法及其应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(5):54-62.WANG Lei-zhen,ZHANG Fan,LI Chun-guang.The quantitative methods and its applications on the tourist contribution to regional economic development[J].System Engineering Theory and Practice,2006,26(5):54-62.(in Chinese)
[6]姜超雁,张婕姝,真虹.国际航运中心建设对上海经济发展的贡献度研究[J].科学发展,2012(7):18-24.JIANG Chao-yan,ZHANG Jie-shu,ZHEN Hong.Research on economic contribution estimation of Shanghai international shipping center to Shanghai economy[J].Scientific Development,2012(7):18-24.(in Chinese)
[7]李玉凤.海南省出口贸易对经济增长的贡献度研究[J].价值工程,2006,25(5):16-17.LI Yu-feng.Study on contribution degree of export trade to economy increase in Hainan[J].Value Engineering,2006,25(5):16-17.(in Chinese)
[8]常雷雷,张小可,李孟军.基于灰靶理论的武器装备体系技术贡献度评估[J].兵工自动化,2010,29(10):13-15,19.CHANG Lei-lei,ZHANG Xiao-ke,LI Meng-jun.Weapon system of system technology contribution evaluation based on grey target theory[J].Ordnance Industry Automation,2010,29(10):13-15,19.(in Chinese)
[9]管清波,于小红.新型武器装备体系贡献度评估问题探析[J].装备学院学报,2015,26(3):1-5.GUAN Qing-bo,YU Xiao-hong.Research on evaluation of equipment's contribution to system warfighting[J].Journal of Equipment Academy,2015,26(3):1-5.(in Chinese)
[10]李怡勇,李智,管清波,等.武器装备体系贡献度评估刍议与示例[J].装备学院学报,2015,26(4):5-10.LI Yi-yong,LI Zhi,GUAN Qing-bo,et al.Discussion and demonstration on contribution eva Iuation of weapon equipment system[J].Journal of Equipment Academy,2015,26(4):5-10.(in Chinese)
[11]李际超,杨克巍,张小可,等.基于武器装备体系作战网络模型的装备贡献度评估[J].复杂系统与复杂性科学,2016,13(3):1-7.LI Ji-chao,YANG Ke-wei,ZHANG Xiao-ke,et al.Equipment contribution degree evaluation method based on combat network of weapon system-of-systems[J].Complex Systems and Complexity Science,2016,13(3):1-7.(in Chinese)
[12]罗小明,朱延雷,何榕.基于复杂网络的武器装备体系贡献度评估分析方法[J].火力与指挥控制,2017,42(2):83-87.LUO Xiao-ming,ZHU Yan-lei,HE Rong.Research on evaluation method of contribution to system warfighting for weapons and equipment system based on complex network[J].Fire Control and Command Control,2017,42(2):83-87.(in Chinese)
[13]李炜,张恒,王玮.评价舰船装备体系贡献度的一种方法[J].舰船科学技术,2015,37(10):1-5.LI Wei,ZHANG Heng,WANG Wei.An evaluation method for the contribution margin of a ship in the combat system of systems[J].Ship Science and Technology,2015,37(10):1-5.(in Chinese)
[14]吕惠文,武庆春,张炜.基于灰色证据理论的装备体系贡献率评估[J].军事交通学院学报,2017,19(5):22-27.LYU Hui-wen,WU Qing-chun,ZHANG Wei.Equipment system contribution evaluation based on gray evidence theory[J].Journal of Military Transportation University,2017,19(5):22-27.(in Chinese)
[15]陈文英,张兵志,焦爱泉,等.装甲装备体系贡献率评估指标体系构建[C]∥全军武器装备体系研究第九届学术研讨会论文集.合肥:全军武器装备体系专业组,2015:146-150.CHEN Wen-ying,ZHANG Bing-zhi,JIAO Ai-quan,et al.Contribution ratio evaluation index system construction of the armoured combat system[C]∥Proceedings of the 9th Whole Army Symposium on Weapon Equipment System of Systems Research.Hefei:the Weapon Equipment System of Systems Research Professional Organization,2015:146-150.(in Chinese)
[16]张兵志,陈文英,石义群.信息化条件下新型装甲突击系统能力需求研究[C]∥全军武器装备体系研究第七届学术研讨会论文集.葫芦岛:全军武器装备体系专业组,2013:346-350.ZHANG Bing-zhi,CHEN Wen-ying,SHI Yi-qun.Capacity requirement study of the new type armoured combat system under the information conditions[C]∥Proceedings of the 7th Whole Army Symposium on Weapon Equipment System of Systems Research.Huludao:the Weapon Equipment System of Systems Research Professional Organization,2013:346-350.(in Chinese)
[17]Yang J B,Xu D L.On the evidential reasoning algorithm for multiple attribute decision analysis under uncertainty[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics-Part A:Systems and Humans,2002,32(3):289-304.
[18]Yang J B,Liu J,Wang J,et al.Belief rule-based inference methodology using the evidential reasoning approach-RIMER[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics-Part A:Systems and Humans,2006,36(2):266-285.
[19]Shafer G.A mathematical theory of evidence[M].Princeton,NJ,US:Princeton University Press,1976.
[20]Zhou Z J,Hu C H,Xu D L B C.New model for system behavior prediction based on belief rule based systems[J].Information Sciences,2010,180(24):4834-4864.
[21]Zhou Z J,Hu C H,Zhang B C.Hidden behavior prediction of complex systems based on hybrid information[J].IEEE Transactions on Cybernetics,2013,43(2):402-411.
[22]Si X S,Hu C H,Yang J B,et al.A new prediction model based on belief rule base for system's behavior prediction[J].IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2011,19(4):636-651.
[23]Buchberger S G,Nadimpalli G.Leak estimation in water distribution systems by statistical analysis of flow readings[J].ASCE Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management,2004,130(4):321-329.
[24]Xu D L,Liu J,Yang J B,et al.Inference and learning methodology of belief-rule-based expert system for pipeline leak detection[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2007,32(1):103-113
[25]程贲,姜江,谭跃进,等.基于证据推理的武器装备体系能力需求满足度评估方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2011,31(11):2210-2216.CHENG Ben,JIANG Jiang,TAN Yue-jin,et al.A novel approach for WSo S capability requirement satisfactory degree evaluation using evidential reasoning[J].System Engineering Theory and Practice,2011,31(11):2210-2216.(in Chinese)
[26]程贲.基于能力的武器装备体系评估方法与应用研究[D].长沙:国防科学技术大学,2012.CHENG Ben.Capabilities-based weapon system-of-systems assessment methods and application research[D].Changsha:National University of Defense Technology,2012.(in Chinese)
[27]Wang Y M,Yang J B,Xu D L.Environmental impact assessment using the evidential reasoning approach[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2006,174:1885-1913.