基于里程碑事件的航空复杂装备研制进度风险管理研究
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摘要
结合我国航空复杂装备研制现状,分析航空复杂装备研制的全过程,构建了基于里程碑事件的航空复杂装备研制进度GERT网络模型,求解得到航空复杂装备研制过程进度时间及方差,在该模型的基础上确定进度风险发生概率,进而对整个项目研制进度风险量化分析,并通过弹性分析确定关键里程碑事件的网络参数变化对整体研制进度风险的影响,分析得到关键进度风险控制点.最后以某飞机研制项目为例,通过建模分析验证研究方法的有效性.
According to our country's present situation of the aviation complex equipment, we analyze the overall process of the development for the aviation complex equipment. A GERT network of the progress for development of aviation complex equipment is built to obtain the time and variance of the development process. Moreover, we receive the probability of risk occurrence on the basis of the model and quantitative analysis of the schedule risk of the development project. In addition, determining the effect of network parameters on the schedule risk by means of elastic analysis, and finding the critical control points of schedule risk. Finally, a case on the aircraft development project is used to validate the validity of the model.
According to our country's present situation of the aviation complex equipment, we analyze the overall process of the development for the aviation complex equipment. A GERT network of the progress for development of aviation complex equipment is built to obtain the time and variance of the development process. Moreover, we receive the probability of risk occurrence on the basis of the model and quantitative analysis of the schedule risk of the development project. In addition, determining the effect of network parameters on the schedule risk by means of elastic analysis, and finding the critical control points of schedule risk. Finally, a case on the aircraft development project is used to validate the validity of the model.
引文
[1]陈洪新,庄雪松,李婷,朱明旭.航空复杂装备协同研制供应商参与模式决策研究[J].工业工程,2016(19):146-152.
[2]刘红旗,方志耕,陶良彦.复杂装备研制项目进度规划GERT网络“反问题”模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2015(37):2758-2763.
[3]袁博,王瑛,汪送.新型航空装备研制风险的管理与控制研究[J].工业安全与环保,2011(37):54-56.
[4]曹吉鸣,申良法,彭为,马腾.风险链视角下建设项目进度风险评估[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2015(43):468-474.
[5]刘俊艳,王卓甫.工程进度风险因素的非叠加性影响[J]·系统工程理论与实践,2011(31):1517-1523.
[6]陈述,胡志根.土石过水围堰条件下的水电工程施工进度风险研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013(33):1622-1627.
[7]卢福强,毕华玲,黄敏,王雷震.IT外包进度风险控制的结构化分布式决策模型[J].系统工,2016(34):139-145.
[8]曹小秋,吴园园,吴鹏昆.基于网络的系统性风险测度方法及其在中国银行业的应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2017, 47(4):83-93.
[9]徐吉辉,邹星琪.基于I-Monte Carlo的飞机研制费用风险建模与实证分析[J].数学实践与认识,2015,45(13):58-66.
[10]舒亮亮,陈洪转.复杂产品“主制造商-供应商”协同合作激励GERT网络建模[J].科技管理研究,2012(17):132-136.
[11]陶良彦,刘思峰,方志耕,吴利丰,姜志平.基于多层次的复杂产品研制进度规划“超冲突均衡”博弈模型[J].控制与决策,2014(29):2002-2010.
[12]许静,李亚平,方志耕.高校网络舆情危机演化GERT模型及其应对机制和策略[J].数学的实践与认识,2015, 45(5):75-82.
[13] Liangyan Tao, Desheng Wu, Sifeng Liu, James H. Lambert. Schedule risk analysis for new-product development:The GERT method extended by a characteristic function[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2017(167):464-473.
[14] Kenzo Kurihara, Nobuyuki Nishiuchi. Efficient monte carlo simulation method of GERT-type network for project management[J]. Computers&Industrial Engineering, 2002(42):521-531.
[15] Zhou Li, Xie Jiaping, Gu Xiaoyu, Lin Yong. Petros Ieromonachou, Xiaole Zhang. Forecasting return of used products for remanufacturing using Graphical evaluation and review technique(GERT)[J].Int J Production Economics, 2016(181):315-324.
[16] Reza Abdi, Hamid Reza Ghasemzadeh, Shamsollah Abdollahpour, Majid Sabzeparvar, Adel Dabbag Mohamadi Nasab. Modeling and analysis of mechanization projects of wheat production by GERT networks[J]. Agricultural Sciences in China, 2010, 9(7):1078-1083.
[17] Nelson S G, Amir A, Samin A. The use of GERT based method to model concurrent product development processes[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2015, 9(40):197-208.
[2]刘红旗,方志耕,陶良彦.复杂装备研制项目进度规划GERT网络“反问题”模型[J].系统工程与电子技术,2015(37):2758-2763.
[3]袁博,王瑛,汪送.新型航空装备研制风险的管理与控制研究[J].工业安全与环保,2011(37):54-56.
[4]曹吉鸣,申良法,彭为,马腾.风险链视角下建设项目进度风险评估[J].同济大学学报(自然科学版),2015(43):468-474.
[5]刘俊艳,王卓甫.工程进度风险因素的非叠加性影响[J]·系统工程理论与实践,2011(31):1517-1523.
[6]陈述,胡志根.土石过水围堰条件下的水电工程施工进度风险研究[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013(33):1622-1627.
[7]卢福强,毕华玲,黄敏,王雷震.IT外包进度风险控制的结构化分布式决策模型[J].系统工,2016(34):139-145.
[8]曹小秋,吴园园,吴鹏昆.基于网络的系统性风险测度方法及其在中国银行业的应用[J].数学的实践与认识,2017, 47(4):83-93.
[9]徐吉辉,邹星琪.基于I-Monte Carlo的飞机研制费用风险建模与实证分析[J].数学实践与认识,2015,45(13):58-66.
[10]舒亮亮,陈洪转.复杂产品“主制造商-供应商”协同合作激励GERT网络建模[J].科技管理研究,2012(17):132-136.
[11]陶良彦,刘思峰,方志耕,吴利丰,姜志平.基于多层次的复杂产品研制进度规划“超冲突均衡”博弈模型[J].控制与决策,2014(29):2002-2010.
[12]许静,李亚平,方志耕.高校网络舆情危机演化GERT模型及其应对机制和策略[J].数学的实践与认识,2015, 45(5):75-82.
[13] Liangyan Tao, Desheng Wu, Sifeng Liu, James H. Lambert. Schedule risk analysis for new-product development:The GERT method extended by a characteristic function[J]. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2017(167):464-473.
[14] Kenzo Kurihara, Nobuyuki Nishiuchi. Efficient monte carlo simulation method of GERT-type network for project management[J]. Computers&Industrial Engineering, 2002(42):521-531.
[15] Zhou Li, Xie Jiaping, Gu Xiaoyu, Lin Yong. Petros Ieromonachou, Xiaole Zhang. Forecasting return of used products for remanufacturing using Graphical evaluation and review technique(GERT)[J].Int J Production Economics, 2016(181):315-324.
[16] Reza Abdi, Hamid Reza Ghasemzadeh, Shamsollah Abdollahpour, Majid Sabzeparvar, Adel Dabbag Mohamadi Nasab. Modeling and analysis of mechanization projects of wheat production by GERT networks[J]. Agricultural Sciences in China, 2010, 9(7):1078-1083.
[17] Nelson S G, Amir A, Samin A. The use of GERT based method to model concurrent product development processes[J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2015, 9(40):197-208.