新能源光伏对售电市场影响分析
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摘要
随着分布式电源的大量接入,地区光伏电量的占有率不断提升。大量新能源电源并网,除了对电网公司规划、生产及运营等方面带来很大影响,对供电企业的电力市场占有率也会产生未知的影响。通过运用灰色理论和RBF神经网络法2种方法,设定了3种场景,对光伏装机容量和光伏发电量等指标进行量化推导,分析地区新能源(光伏、风电)高速发展对售电市场的份额、变动趋势的影响,对新能源电源发展及电量情况进行预测,以促进新能源发电与电网发展建设更加科学、协调发展。
With the abundant access of distributed generation, the proportion of local photovoltaics keeps increasing. The abundant access of new energy generation not only brings significant effect on planning, production and operation of power grid companies but unknown effect on power market occupation of power enterprises. Based on grey theory and RBF neural network, the paper sets three scenarios to quantify and deduce installed capacity and generation capacity of photovoltaics so as to analyze the impact of the evolving new energy(photovoltaics and wind power) on power sales market and variation trend; in addition, the paper predicts the development of new energy power generation and power quantity to enable new energy power generation, grid development and construction more scientifically and coordinated.
With the abundant access of distributed generation, the proportion of local photovoltaics keeps increasing. The abundant access of new energy generation not only brings significant effect on planning, production and operation of power grid companies but unknown effect on power market occupation of power enterprises. Based on grey theory and RBF neural network, the paper sets three scenarios to quantify and deduce installed capacity and generation capacity of photovoltaics so as to analyze the impact of the evolving new energy(photovoltaics and wind power) on power sales market and variation trend; in addition, the paper predicts the development of new energy power generation and power quantity to enable new energy power generation, grid development and construction more scientifically and coordinated.
引文
[1]赵波.大量分布式光伏电源接入对配电网的影响研究[J].浙江电力,2010,29(6):5-8.
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[6]高振宇,徐以理,许万选,等.考虑分布式光伏电源影响的负荷预测方法研究[J].浙江电力,2014,33(2):18-21.
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[9]霍玉佼,朱丽,孙勇.屋顶光伏阵列优化及其对既有建筑能耗的影响研究[J].建筑节能,2015(6):36-39.
[10]周希松.分布式光伏发电系统在民用建筑中的应用[J].现代建筑电气,2017(2):38-41.
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[12]刘保松,刘晓光,刘庆超.现行条件下我国光伏发电盈利分析[J].发电与空调,2015(1):43-45.
[13]王玮,田育江,张家玮.分布式光伏发电成本收益分析及风险防范[J].山西:山西电力,2017(2):35-38.
[14]刘思峰,谢乃明.灰色理论系统及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.
[15]刘金琨.RBF神经网络自适应控制MATLAB仿真[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2014.
[2]葛晓慧,赵波.光伏电源接入对配电网电压稳定的影响研究[J].浙江电力,2011,30(10):6-8.
[3]白熊,王骏海,高振宇,等,光伏电站接入配电网典型设计研究[J].浙江电力,2010,29(12):4-7.
[4]刘永胜,李题印,包拯民,等.基于PSCAD/EMTDC的并网光伏发电分析[J].浙江电力,2011,30(3):6-9.
[5]张昀.光伏电源的选址定容规划[J].浙江电力,2011,30(9):19-22.
[6]高振宇,徐以理,许万选,等.考虑分布式光伏电源影响的负荷预测方法研究[J].浙江电力,2014,33(2):18-21.
[7]张全斌.运用度电成本理论剖析光电项目投资机遇[J].浙江电力,2017,36(4):9-13.
[8]刘维亮,范云其,李峰,等.并网方式对分布式光伏发电项目成本与收益的影响[J].浙江电力,2016,35(11):23-26.
[9]霍玉佼,朱丽,孙勇.屋顶光伏阵列优化及其对既有建筑能耗的影响研究[J].建筑节能,2015(6):36-39.
[10]周希松.分布式光伏发电系统在民用建筑中的应用[J].现代建筑电气,2017(2):38-41.
[11]张铭杰.分布式光伏发电经济效益分析[J].广东:新技术新工艺,2015(12):53-55.
[12]刘保松,刘晓光,刘庆超.现行条件下我国光伏发电盈利分析[J].发电与空调,2015(1):43-45.
[13]王玮,田育江,张家玮.分布式光伏发电成本收益分析及风险防范[J].山西:山西电力,2017(2):35-38.
[14]刘思峰,谢乃明.灰色理论系统及其应用[M].北京:科学出版社,2013.
[15]刘金琨.RBF神经网络自适应控制MATLAB仿真[M].北京:清华大学出版社,2014.