考虑风险与社会支付意愿的大坝长效服役决策
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摘要
鉴于大坝长效服役决策需满足严格的工程技术要求,同时兼顾一系列复杂的社会、经济、环境和生态问题的特性,阐述了水库大坝长效服役决策的总体思路,探讨了除险加固、工程降等、拆除退役或近坝址重建等大坝长效服役的可选措施。在计算大坝服役可靠度的基础上,引入生命质量指数,衡量社会经济水平提高和人们生活质量改善对大坝长效安全服役要求的综合提升,据此提出了考虑大坝安全风险和社会支付意愿的大坝服役性能提升措施的决策判据。对一座存在一定坝体失稳风险的某混凝土重力坝提升服役性能措施进行了推荐,建议采取水库水位降低10 m运行或大坝补强加固的措施提升大坝长期服役性能,与工程实际吻合。
The decision-making of dams for long-term service needs to strictly meet the engineering and technical requirements, as well as considering a series of complex social, economic, environmental and ecological issues. This paper presents the general idea of the decision-making method for dams and reservoirs of long-term service, and discusses the optional life promotion measures, including reinforcement, degradation, retirement by demolition and reconstruction near the dam site. The life quality index(LQI) is introduced to evaluate the comprehensive improvements of the dam life promotion measures caused by social life quality improvements based on the calculation of dam service reliability. The decision-making criteria of dam performance promotion measures are then proposed based on LQI and the social willingness to pay. Finally, a concrete gravity dam with stability risks was taken as an example and the optimal engineering measures of performance promotion were recommended. It is suggested to operate with a 10 m reduction of the reservoir water level or with suitable dam reinforcement measures to promote the long-term service performance, consistent with engineering practice.
The decision-making of dams for long-term service needs to strictly meet the engineering and technical requirements, as well as considering a series of complex social, economic, environmental and ecological issues. This paper presents the general idea of the decision-making method for dams and reservoirs of long-term service, and discusses the optional life promotion measures, including reinforcement, degradation, retirement by demolition and reconstruction near the dam site. The life quality index(LQI) is introduced to evaluate the comprehensive improvements of the dam life promotion measures caused by social life quality improvements based on the calculation of dam service reliability. The decision-making criteria of dam performance promotion measures are then proposed based on LQI and the social willingness to pay. Finally, a concrete gravity dam with stability risks was taken as an example and the optimal engineering measures of performance promotion were recommended. It is suggested to operate with a 10 m reduction of the reservoir water level or with suitable dam reinforcement measures to promote the long-term service performance, consistent with engineering practice.
引文
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[10]PANDEY M D,NATHWANI J S.Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety[J].Structural Safety,2004,26(2):181-199.
[11]PANDEY M D,NATHWANI J S.Canada wide standard for particulate matter and ozone:cost-benefit analysis using a life quality index[J].Risk Analysis,2003,23(1):55-67.
[12]NATHWANI J S,LIND N C,PANDEY M D.The LQIstandard of practice:optimizing engineered safety with the life quality index[J].Structure&Infrastructure Engineering,2008,4(5):327-334.
[13]KATHARINA F,EDGAR V,MAURICIO S.On the assessment of marginal life saving costs for risk acceptance criteria[J].Structural Safety,2013,44:37-46.
[14]GUO J.Recent achievements in hydraulic research in China[J].Comprehensive Renewable Energy,2012(6):485-505.
[15]胡春宏,陈建国,郭庆超.潼关高程的稳定降低与渭河下游河道综合治理[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2004,2(1):19-25.(HU Chunhong,CHENJianguo,GUO Qingchao.Stable lowering of Tongguan bed elevation and comprehensive regulation of the Lower Weihe River[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2004,2(1):19-25.(in Chinese))
[16]CHEN B,WU Z R,LIANG J C,et al.Time-varying identification model for crack monitoring data from concrete dams based on support vector regression and the bayesian framework[J].Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2017(1):1-11.
[17]宋敬衖,何鲜峰.我国溃坝生命风险分析方法探讨[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2008,36(5):628-633.(SONG Jingxiang,HE Xianfeng.Discussion on analysis method for risk of life loss caused by dam failure in China[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2008,36(5):628-633.(in Chinese))
[18]刘冬华,刘茂.基于生活质量指数的风险社会可接受性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2007,3(4):47-50.(LIU Donghua,LIU Mao.Social risk acceptability based on life quality index[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2007,3(4):47-50.(in Chinese))
[19]HICKS J R.The foundation of welfare economics[J].The Economic Journal,1939,49:696-712.
[20]LIU Xiaojie,LI Xiaojing,SHI Weihua,et al.Matrix algorithm for reliability of structure in generalized random space[J].Applied Mechanics and Materials,2012,166/167/168/169:1913-1916.
[21]胡江,苏怀智.基于生命质量指数的病险水库除险加固效应评价方法[J].水利学报,2012,43(7):852-859.(HU Jiang,SU Huaizhi.Identification of significant environmental factors affecting fish abundance by genetic programming[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,43(7):852-859.(in Chinese))
[22]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴:2014[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.
[2]吴中如,顾冲时,苏怀智,等.水工结构工程分析计算方法回眸与发展[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版).2015,43(5):395-405.(WU Zhongru,GU Chongshi,SUHuaizhi,et al.Review and prospect of calculation analysis methods in hydro-structure engineering[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2015,43(5):395-405.(in Chinese))
[3]水利部大坝安全管理中心.全国水库垮坝登记册[G].南京:水利部大坝安全管理中心,2015.
[4]张建云,杨正华.水库大坝病险和溃坝的研究与警示[M].北京:科学出版社,2014.
[5]JOHN H.Dam removal science and decision making[M].Washington D.C.:The H John HeinzⅢCenter for Science,Economics and the Environment,2002.
[6]WU Zhongru,XU Bo,GU Chongshi,et al.Comprehensive evaluation methods for dam service status[J].Technological Science:Science China Series E,2012,42(11):2300-2312.
[7]彭辉,刘德富.病坝识别及其拆除决策步骤研究[J].中国农村水利水电,2009(9):101-104.(PENG Hui,LIU Defu.Sick and dangerous dam identification and corresponding decision-making of removal[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2009(9):101-104.(in Chinese))
[8]杨杰,江德军,郑成成,等.病险水库除险加固方案决策研究[J].西北农林科技大学学报(自然科学版),2014,42(11):213-219.(YANG Jie,JIANG Dejun,ZHENG Chengcheng,et al.Deciding reinforcement scheme for dangerous dam[J].Journal of Northwest A&FUniversity(Natural Science Edition),2014,42(11):213-219.(in Chinese))
[9]NATHWANI J S,LIND N C,PANDEY M D.Affordable safety by choice:the life quality method[M].Waterloo:University of Waterloo,1997.
[10]PANDEY M D,NATHWANI J S.Life quality index for the estimation of societal willingness-to-pay for safety[J].Structural Safety,2004,26(2):181-199.
[11]PANDEY M D,NATHWANI J S.Canada wide standard for particulate matter and ozone:cost-benefit analysis using a life quality index[J].Risk Analysis,2003,23(1):55-67.
[12]NATHWANI J S,LIND N C,PANDEY M D.The LQIstandard of practice:optimizing engineered safety with the life quality index[J].Structure&Infrastructure Engineering,2008,4(5):327-334.
[13]KATHARINA F,EDGAR V,MAURICIO S.On the assessment of marginal life saving costs for risk acceptance criteria[J].Structural Safety,2013,44:37-46.
[14]GUO J.Recent achievements in hydraulic research in China[J].Comprehensive Renewable Energy,2012(6):485-505.
[15]胡春宏,陈建国,郭庆超.潼关高程的稳定降低与渭河下游河道综合治理[J].中国水利水电科学研究院学报,2004,2(1):19-25.(HU Chunhong,CHENJianguo,GUO Qingchao.Stable lowering of Tongguan bed elevation and comprehensive regulation of the Lower Weihe River[J].Journal of China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,2004,2(1):19-25.(in Chinese))
[16]CHEN B,WU Z R,LIANG J C,et al.Time-varying identification model for crack monitoring data from concrete dams based on support vector regression and the bayesian framework[J].Mathematical Problems in Engineering,2017(1):1-11.
[17]宋敬衖,何鲜峰.我国溃坝生命风险分析方法探讨[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2008,36(5):628-633.(SONG Jingxiang,HE Xianfeng.Discussion on analysis method for risk of life loss caused by dam failure in China[J].Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2008,36(5):628-633.(in Chinese))
[18]刘冬华,刘茂.基于生活质量指数的风险社会可接受性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2007,3(4):47-50.(LIU Donghua,LIU Mao.Social risk acceptability based on life quality index[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2007,3(4):47-50.(in Chinese))
[19]HICKS J R.The foundation of welfare economics[J].The Economic Journal,1939,49:696-712.
[20]LIU Xiaojie,LI Xiaojing,SHI Weihua,et al.Matrix algorithm for reliability of structure in generalized random space[J].Applied Mechanics and Materials,2012,166/167/168/169:1913-1916.
[21]胡江,苏怀智.基于生命质量指数的病险水库除险加固效应评价方法[J].水利学报,2012,43(7):852-859.(HU Jiang,SU Huaizhi.Identification of significant environmental factors affecting fish abundance by genetic programming[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,43(7):852-859.(in Chinese))
[22]中华人民共和国国家统计局.中国统计年鉴:2014[M].北京:中国统计出版社,2015.