玛纳斯河流域NDVI时空变化及对气象因子的响应
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摘要
基于MODIS-NDVI数据和同期的气象资料,运用趋势分析、R/S分析、偏相关分析等方法,在区域和像元两个尺度上研究玛纳斯河流域的植被空间变化特征。结合趋势分析结果和Hurst指数,研究玛纳斯河流域NDVI变化的可持续性特征,并从气温和降水量2个因素分析了NDVI对气象因子的响应。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年玛纳斯河流域NDVI变化呈微弱增长趋势,增长速率为0.044/10a。(2)玛纳斯河流域植被覆盖状况改善的区域占总面积的42.03%,没有发生显著变化的区域占总面积的55.88%,显著退化的区域仅占总面积的2.09%,研究区整体生态环境有所改善。(3)从Hurst指数来看,研究区大部分地区NDVI变化具有可持续性,但局部地区具有反持续性。持续性改善区域占总面积的52.81%,持续退化的面积比重为29.54%,15.87%面积的区域未来变化趋势无法确定。(4)相关性分析结果显示:NDVI与年降水量呈正相关,与平均温度呈负相关,降水对NDVI的影响高于平均温度。
Based on the MODIS-NDVI data and the corresponding meteorological data,trend analysis,R/S analysis,partial correlation analysis were carried out to study the characteristics of the spatial variation of vegetation in the Manasi River Basin from the two scales of region and pixel.The trend analysis result and Hurst index were combined to study the sustainability characteristics of NDVI pattern in Manasi River Basin.The response of NDVI to meteorological factors was analyzed from two aspects of temperature and precipitation.The results indicate that:(1)during 2000—2015,the NDVI in Manasi River Basin showed the weak growth trend,with a growth rate of 0.044/decade;(2)the areas of vegetation improvement in the Manasi River Basin accounted for 42.03%of the total area,55.88%of the total area without significant change,the significant degradation area accounted for only 2.09%of the total area,the overall ecological environment in the study area had been improved;(3)according to the Hurst index,NDVI changes were sustainable in most regions of the study area,but were anti-sustainability in some regions;the area of sustainable improvement accounted for 52.81%of the total area,the area of continuous degradation was 29.54%,and the area where the future trend of change could not be determined accounted for 15.87%;(4)the results of correlation analysis showed that NDVI was positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with average temperature,suggesting that the effect of precipitation on NDVI was higher than average temperature.
Based on the MODIS-NDVI data and the corresponding meteorological data,trend analysis,R/S analysis,partial correlation analysis were carried out to study the characteristics of the spatial variation of vegetation in the Manasi River Basin from the two scales of region and pixel.The trend analysis result and Hurst index were combined to study the sustainability characteristics of NDVI pattern in Manasi River Basin.The response of NDVI to meteorological factors was analyzed from two aspects of temperature and precipitation.The results indicate that:(1)during 2000—2015,the NDVI in Manasi River Basin showed the weak growth trend,with a growth rate of 0.044/decade;(2)the areas of vegetation improvement in the Manasi River Basin accounted for 42.03%of the total area,55.88%of the total area without significant change,the significant degradation area accounted for only 2.09%of the total area,the overall ecological environment in the study area had been improved;(3)according to the Hurst index,NDVI changes were sustainable in most regions of the study area,but were anti-sustainability in some regions;the area of sustainable improvement accounted for 52.81%of the total area,the area of continuous degradation was 29.54%,and the area where the future trend of change could not be determined accounted for 15.87%;(4)the results of correlation analysis showed that NDVI was positively correlated with precipitation and negatively correlated with average temperature,suggesting that the effect of precipitation on NDVI was higher than average temperature.
引文
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[17]姜亮亮,刘海隆,包安明,等.玛纳斯河流域景观格局演变特征与驱动机制分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(4):256-262.
[18]刘洋,李诚志,刘志辉,等.1982—2013年基于GIMMSNDVI的新疆植被覆盖时空变化[J].生态学报,2016,36(19):6198-6208.
[19] Nemani R R,Keeling C D,Hashimoto H,et al.Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982to 1999[J].Science,2003,300(5625):1560-1563.
[20]杜加强,贾尔恒·阿哈提,赵晨曦,等.1982—2012年新疆植被NDVI的动态变化及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(12):3567-3578.
[21]罗敏,古丽,加帕尔,等.2000—2013年塔里木河流域生长季NDVI时空变化特征及其影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(1):50-63.
[2]Hilker T,Lyapustin A I,Hall F G,et al.On the measurability of change in Amazon vegetation from MODIS[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2015,166:233-242.
[3]刘可,杜灵通,侯静,等.近30年中国陆地生态系统NDVI时空变化特征[J].生态学报,2018,38(6):1885-1896.
[4]李跃鹏,刘海艳,周维博.陕西省1982—2015NDVI时空分布特征及其与气候因子相关性[J].生态科学,2017,36(6):153-160.
[5] Fensholt R,Rasmussen K,Nielsen T T,et al.Evaluation of earth observation based long term vegetation trends:Intercomparing NDVI time series trend analysis consistency of Sahel from AVHRR GIMMS,Terra MODIS and SPOT VGT data[J].Remote Sensing of Environment,2009,113(9):1886-1898.
[6]闫俊杰,乔木,周宏飞,等.基于MODIS/NDVI的新疆伊犁河谷植被变化[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(3):512-519.
[7] Studer S,Appenzeller C,Defila C.Inter-Annual variability and decadal trends in alpine spring phenology:A multivariate analysis approach[J].Climatic Change,2005,73(3):395-414.
[8] Sun J,Qin X.Precipitation and temperature regulate the seasonal changes of NDVI across the Tibetan Plateau[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2016,75(4):1-9.
[9]刘金巍,靳甜甜,刘国华,等.新疆玛纳斯河流域2000—2010年土地利用/覆盖变化及影响因素[J].生态学报,2014,34(12):3211-3223.
[10]张宏锋,欧阳志云,郑华,等.新疆玛纳斯河流域景观格局变化及其生态效应[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(6):1408-1414.
[11]李慧婷,徐丽萍,郭鹏,等.玛纳斯河流域景观格局变化与地形控制分析[J].水土保持研究,2015,22(6):273-278.
[12]张静静,郑辉,朱连奇,等.豫西山地植被NDVI及其气候响应的多维变化[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):765-778.
[13]袁丽华,蒋卫国,申文明,等.2000—2010年黄河流域植被覆盖的时空变化[J].生态学报,2013,33(24):7798-7806.
[14]姜红涛,塔西甫拉提·特依拜,阿尔达克·克里木,等.艾比湖流域NDVI变化及其与降水、温度的关系[J].中国沙漠,2014,34(6):1678-1684.
[15]方利,王文杰,蒋卫国,等.2000—2014年黑龙江流域(中国)植被覆盖时空变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].地理科学,2017,37(11):1745-1754.
[16]慈晖,张强.新疆NDVI时空特征及气候变化影响研究[J].地球信息科学学报,2017,19(5):662-671.
[17]姜亮亮,刘海隆,包安明,等.玛纳斯河流域景观格局演变特征与驱动机制分析[J].水土保持研究,2014,21(4):256-262.
[18]刘洋,李诚志,刘志辉,等.1982—2013年基于GIMMSNDVI的新疆植被覆盖时空变化[J].生态学报,2016,36(19):6198-6208.
[19] Nemani R R,Keeling C D,Hashimoto H,et al.Climate-driven increases in global terrestrial net primary production from 1982to 1999[J].Science,2003,300(5625):1560-1563.
[20]杜加强,贾尔恒·阿哈提,赵晨曦,等.1982—2012年新疆植被NDVI的动态变化及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(12):3567-3578.
[21]罗敏,古丽,加帕尔,等.2000—2013年塔里木河流域生长季NDVI时空变化特征及其影响因素分析[J].自然资源学报,2017,32(1):50-63.