基于变动统计的复杂系统可靠性综合评估
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摘要
为了在小样本条件下实现对复杂系统的可靠性评估,研究了复杂系统的环境、功能、状态及演化过程的随机特性,给出了一种基于变动统计的复杂系统可靠性综合评估方法。针对复杂系统的特点,根据变动统计理论,通过引入环境因子、继承因子和增长因子等方法,综合利用复杂系统在研制过程中的不同环境、阶段、层次和对象的试验数据,对复杂系统可靠性进行综合评估。以某战术武器系统为应用对象,结果表明该方法综合利用了武器系统在研制过程中的多种试验数据,扩大了样本量,有效地改善了多指标要求的战术武器系统可靠性评估精度。
To improve the precision of reliability assessment for the complex system,the stochastic features on environment,function,status and evolvement of the complex system are studied,and a synthetic reliability assessment method for the complex system based on dynamic population statistics is proposed.According to the theory of dynamic population statistics,the environment factor,inheritance factor and growth factor are introduced.Then,with these factors,the test data from various environment conditions,various develop phases,various structures and various objects are used to assess the reliability of the complex system.With the method,the various test data are used synthetically to enlarge the sample size and increase the information for reliability assessment.Thus,the precision of reliability assessment is improved.The present method is used to assess the reliability of the tactical weapon system.The result shows that the method is reasonable,and it is convenient for engineering application.
To improve the precision of reliability assessment for the complex system,the stochastic features on environment,function,status and evolvement of the complex system are studied,and a synthetic reliability assessment method for the complex system based on dynamic population statistics is proposed.According to the theory of dynamic population statistics,the environment factor,inheritance factor and growth factor are introduced.Then,with these factors,the test data from various environment conditions,various develop phases,various structures and various objects are used to assess the reliability of the complex system.With the method,the various test data are used synthetically to enlarge the sample size and increase the information for reliability assessment.Thus,the precision of reliability assessment is improved.The present method is used to assess the reliability of the tactical weapon system.The result shows that the method is reasonable,and it is convenient for engineering application.
引文
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[15]Essayed E A,Wang H Z.Bayes&classical estimation of environmental factors for the binomial distribution[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,1996,45(4):661-665.
[16]Li F,Shi Y M,Jing Y.Bayesian estimation for environmental factor of two parameter of Weibull distribution[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2008,30(1):186-189.(李凤,师义民,荆源.两参数Weibull分布环境因子的Bayes估计[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(1):186-189.)
[17]Hong D P,Ma X B,Zhao Y,et al.Environment referring factor based on proportional hazards model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2010,36(4):443-446.(洪东跑,马小兵,赵宇,等.基于比例风险模型的环境折合系数确定方法[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2010,36(4):443-446.)
[18]Kleyner A.Bayesian techniques to reduce the sample size in automotive electronics attribute testing[J].Microelectronic Reliability,1997,37(6):879-883.
[19]Yang J,Shen L J,Huang J,et al.Bayes comprehensive assessment of reliability for electronic products by using test information of similar products[J].Acta Aeronautica Et Astronautica Sinica,2008,29(6):1550-1553.(杨军,申丽娟,黄金,等.利用相似产品信息的电子产品可靠性Bayes综合评估[J].航空学报,2008,29(6):1550-1553.)
[20]Yang J,Huang J,Shen L J,et al.Bayes comprehensive assessment of reliability for binomial products by using test information of similar product[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2009,35(7):786-788.(杨军,黄金,申丽娟,等.利用相似产品信息的成败型产品Bayes可靠性评估[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2009,35(7):786-788.)
[21]Wang W,Zhou H Y,Yin G J.Bayes method with mixed Beta distribution[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2005,25(9):142-144.(王玮,周海云,尹国举.使用混合Beta分布的Bayes方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(9):142-144.)
[22]Yu D,Li X J,Jiang N N,et al.Some statistical inference problems and research progresses on reliability analysis of complex systems[J].Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences,2007,27(1):68-81.(于丹,李学京,姜宁宁,等.复杂系统可靠性分析中的若干统计问题与进展[J].系统科学与数学,2007,27(1):68-81.)
[2]Du Z H,Zhao Y,Huang M.Integrated reliability evaluation of development test data based on AMSAA model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2003,29(8):745-748.(杜振华,赵宇,黄敏.基于AMSAA模型的研制试验数据可靠性综合评估[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2003,29(8):745-748.)
[3]Zhao Y,Wang Y H,Huang M.Integrated reliability evaluation of complex electronic equipment using development data[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2002,24(1):99-102.(赵宇,王宇宏,黄敏.复杂电子设备研制阶段数据的可靠性综合评估[J].系统工程与电子技术,2002,24(1):99-102.)
[4]Hong D P,Zhao Y,Ma X B.Integrated reliability assessment using varied environment test data[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2009,35(10):1152-1155.(洪东跑,赵宇,马小兵.利用变环境试验数据的可靠性综合评估[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2009,35(10):1152-1155.)
[5]He G W.A Bayesian approach for estimating increasing MTBF[J].Acta Electronica Sinica,1981,9(3):70-74.(何国伟.评估电子产品平均寿命的一种变动统计方法[J].电子学报,1981,9(3):70-74.)
[6]Xie H W,Yan Z Q,Jiang Y J,et al.Problems and methods of dynamic population statistics in equipment test evaluation[J].Journal of Astronautics,2010,31(11):2427-2437.(谢红卫,闫志强,蒋英杰,等.装备试验评估中的变动统计问题与方法[J].宇航学报,2010,31(11):2427-2437.)
[7]He S Y,Zhao Y,Fang X Z.Equipment reliability estimation under different experiment periods and environments[J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis,2008,44(3):331-334.(何书元,赵宇,房祥忠.估计不同阶段和环境下的设备可靠性[J].北京大学学报,2008,44(3):331-334.)
[8]Liu Z Y,Huang M,Zhao Y.Integrated evaluation of system reliability using component's varied population-environment data[J].Acta Aeronautica Et Astronautica Sinica,2004,25(3):254-257.(刘智洋,黄敏,赵宇.利用设备变母体变环境数据的系统可靠性综合评估[J].航空学报,2004,25(3):254-257.)
[9]Wendai W,Dimitri B K.Fitting the Weibull log-linear model to accelerated life-test data[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,2000,49(2):217-223.
[10]Kalbfleisch J D,Prentice R L.The statistical analysis of failure time data[M].Hoboken:Wiley,2002.
[11]Zhao H,Yu D.A random effects generalized linear model for reliability competitive evaluation[J].Science China-Series A,39(6):741-748.
[12]Maurizio G,Gianpaolo P.Automative reliability inference based on past data and technical knowledge[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2002,76:129-137.
[13]Wang H W.The study on liquid rocket engine reliability growth analysis and decision[J].Journal of Astronautics,2004,25(6):655-658.(王华伟.液体火箭发动机可靠性增长分析与决策研究[J].宇航学报,2004,25(6):655-658.)
[14]Gong E L,Xie H W,Li P B,et al.Determination of growth factor in reliability growth evaluation with exponential life[J].Journal of National University of Defense Technology,2008,30(6):53-56.(宫二玲,谢红卫,李鹏波,等.指数寿命可靠性增长评估中增长因子的确定方法[J].国防科技大学学报,2008,30(6):53-56.)
[15]Essayed E A,Wang H Z.Bayes&classical estimation of environmental factors for the binomial distribution[J].IEEE Trans.on Reliability,1996,45(4):661-665.
[16]Li F,Shi Y M,Jing Y.Bayesian estimation for environmental factor of two parameter of Weibull distribution[J].Systems Engineering and Electronics,2008,30(1):186-189.(李凤,师义民,荆源.两参数Weibull分布环境因子的Bayes估计[J].系统工程与电子技术,2008,30(1):186-189.)
[17]Hong D P,Ma X B,Zhao Y,et al.Environment referring factor based on proportional hazards model[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2010,36(4):443-446.(洪东跑,马小兵,赵宇,等.基于比例风险模型的环境折合系数确定方法[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2010,36(4):443-446.)
[18]Kleyner A.Bayesian techniques to reduce the sample size in automotive electronics attribute testing[J].Microelectronic Reliability,1997,37(6):879-883.
[19]Yang J,Shen L J,Huang J,et al.Bayes comprehensive assessment of reliability for electronic products by using test information of similar products[J].Acta Aeronautica Et Astronautica Sinica,2008,29(6):1550-1553.(杨军,申丽娟,黄金,等.利用相似产品信息的电子产品可靠性Bayes综合评估[J].航空学报,2008,29(6):1550-1553.)
[20]Yang J,Huang J,Shen L J,et al.Bayes comprehensive assessment of reliability for binomial products by using test information of similar product[J].Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2009,35(7):786-788.(杨军,黄金,申丽娟,等.利用相似产品信息的成败型产品Bayes可靠性评估[J].北京航空航天大学学报,2009,35(7):786-788.)
[21]Wang W,Zhou H Y,Yin G J.Bayes method with mixed Beta distribution[J].Systems Engineering-Theory&Practice,2005,25(9):142-144.(王玮,周海云,尹国举.使用混合Beta分布的Bayes方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2005,25(9):142-144.)
[22]Yu D,Li X J,Jiang N N,et al.Some statistical inference problems and research progresses on reliability analysis of complex systems[J].Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences,2007,27(1):68-81.(于丹,李学京,姜宁宁,等.复杂系统可靠性分析中的若干统计问题与进展[J].系统科学与数学,2007,27(1):68-81.)