区域一体化合作是否导致污染转移——来自长三角城市群扩容的证据
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摘要
如何减少经济增长中的污染排放是中国新时期面临的重要任务。就区域角度来说,理论上存在技术引致的降低污染和排污产业转移的降低污染,后者尤其需要引起警示。同时,实现中国区域协调发展中,城市群的作用日渐突出,以城市群扩容的区域一体化合作方式成为区域经济协调发展的重要政策工具。尽管已有研究表明城市群扩容的区域一体化显著促进了城市经济共同增长,但在环境治理层面上,是否也会带来污染转移而影响不同地区的经济高质量发展,还缺乏有效的实证研究。本文以长三角城市群扩容的"准自然实验"为考察对象,首先通过理论模型提出政府之间推进区域一体化合作导致污染转移的理论机理,随后采用2003—2015年中国地级以上城市数据,通过双重差分(DID)方法对扩容带来的污染排放变化进行了实证检验。研究发现,通过城市群扩容的区域一体化具有显著的减排效应:从总量上看,污染排放通过原位城市向外围新加入城市转移,显著降低原位城市排污水平的同时,新加入城市的污染排放增加了;从结构上看,在降低原位城市污染密集度的同时并未增加新加入城市的排污密度,因而有利于新加入城市的经济规模总量上升;从整体上看,区域一体化合作显著带动了城市群的减排效应,有利于提高城市群经济发展的整体质量。本文研究结论的重要意义在于:通过地方政府一体化合作推动中国区域经济协调发展过程中,不仅要关注经济层面的合作,更要强调污染排放的协同治理与绿色发展合作,从而实现经济与环境的双赢效果。
It is an important task faced by China that how to reduce pollution emissions in economic growth in the new era. From a regional perspective,there are two ways to reduce pollution emissions which can be called technology-induced pollution reduction and transfer the polluting industry out. The latter in particular needs to be alerted. At the same time,the role of urban cluster has become increasingly prominent under the background of promoting regional coordinated development in China,and the enlargement of urban cluster with aims of regional integration and cooperation of local government has become an important policy tool in China's regional development. Although studies have shown that the regional integration of urban cluster significantly promotes the common growth of urban economy. However,from an environmental perspective,whether regional integration will also bring about pollution transfer and therefore affect the development quality of different regions remains a question. This paper took the‘quasi-natural experiment'of the enlargement of the Yangtze River Delta urban cluster as the object of investigation. Firstly,the theoretical model was proposed to promote the theoretical mechanism of pollution transfer caused by regional integration cooperation between the governments. Then,the data of 286 cities in China from 2003 to 2015 was adopted. The differenc E-in-difference( DID) method was used to empirically test the pollution emission change caused by the enlargement. The study found that regional integration through enlargement of urban cluster had significant emission reduction effects: From the total amount,pollution emissions were transferred from incumbent cities to new cluster cities and as a result,pollution emission significantly reduced in incumbent cities while it increased in new cluster cities. From the structural point of view,the pollution intensity of incumbent cities reduced without increasing the pollution intensity of new cluster cities. Overall,regional integration had significantly driven the emission reduction effect of urban cluster and was conducive to improving the quality of urban cluster economic development. The paper drew following conclusions that in the process of promoting the coordinated development of China's regional economy through local government integration and cooperation,we should not only pay attention to economic cooperation,but also emphasize the coordinated management and collaborative governance of pollution emissions to achieve economic and environmental‘win-win'effect.
It is an important task faced by China that how to reduce pollution emissions in economic growth in the new era. From a regional perspective,there are two ways to reduce pollution emissions which can be called technology-induced pollution reduction and transfer the polluting industry out. The latter in particular needs to be alerted. At the same time,the role of urban cluster has become increasingly prominent under the background of promoting regional coordinated development in China,and the enlargement of urban cluster with aims of regional integration and cooperation of local government has become an important policy tool in China's regional development. Although studies have shown that the regional integration of urban cluster significantly promotes the common growth of urban economy. However,from an environmental perspective,whether regional integration will also bring about pollution transfer and therefore affect the development quality of different regions remains a question. This paper took the‘quasi-natural experiment'of the enlargement of the Yangtze River Delta urban cluster as the object of investigation. Firstly,the theoretical model was proposed to promote the theoretical mechanism of pollution transfer caused by regional integration cooperation between the governments. Then,the data of 286 cities in China from 2003 to 2015 was adopted. The differenc E-in-difference( DID) method was used to empirically test the pollution emission change caused by the enlargement. The study found that regional integration through enlargement of urban cluster had significant emission reduction effects: From the total amount,pollution emissions were transferred from incumbent cities to new cluster cities and as a result,pollution emission significantly reduced in incumbent cities while it increased in new cluster cities. From the structural point of view,the pollution intensity of incumbent cities reduced without increasing the pollution intensity of new cluster cities. Overall,regional integration had significantly driven the emission reduction effect of urban cluster and was conducive to improving the quality of urban cluster economic development. The paper drew following conclusions that in the process of promoting the coordinated development of China's regional economy through local government integration and cooperation,we should not only pay attention to economic cooperation,but also emphasize the coordinated management and collaborative governance of pollution emissions to achieve economic and environmental‘win-win'effect.
引文
[1]徐现祥,李郁.市场一体化与区域协调发展[J].经济研究,2005(12):57-67.
[2]刘乃全,吴友.长三角扩容能促进区域经济共同增长吗[J].中国工业经济,2017(6):79-97.
[3]张学良,李培鑫,李丽霞.政府合作、市场整合与城市群经济绩效[J].经济学(季刊),2017,16(4):1563-1582.
[4]陈彦斌.推动我国经济高质量发展的六大突破口[N].光明日报,2018-05-29(15).
[5]COPELAND B,RAND M,TAYLOR S. North-south trade and the environment[J]. The quarterly journal of economics,1994,109,(3):755-787.
[6]LIST J A,MILLIMET D L,FREDRIKSSON P G,et al. Effects of environmental regulations on manufacturing plant births:evidence from a propensity score matching estimator[J]. The review of economics and statistics,2003,85(4):944-952.
[7]COLE M A,ELLIOTT R J R,FREDRIKSSON P G. Endogenous pollution havens:does FDI influence environmental regulations?[J].Scandinavian journal of economics,2006,108(1):157-178.
[8]周黎安.中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究[J].经济研究,2007(7):36-50.
[9]XU C. The fundamental institutions of China’s reforms and development[J]. Journal of economic literature,2011,49(4):1076-1151.
[10]韩永辉,黄亮雄,王贤彬.产业政策推动地方产业结构升级了吗?———基于发展型地方政府的理论解释与实证检验[J].经济研究,2017(8):33-48.
[11]HSIEH C T,PETER J K. Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India[J]. Quarterly journal of economics,2009,124(4):1403-1448.
[12]赵勇,魏后凯.政府干预、城市群空间功能分工与地区差距———兼论中国区域政策的有效性[J].管理世界,2015(8):14-29.
[13]踪家峰,岳耀民.官员交流、任期与经济一体化———来自省级经验的证据[J].公共管理学报,2013,10(4):57-67.
[14]豆建民,崔书会.国内市场一体化促进了污染产业转移吗?[J].产业经济研究,2018(4):76-87.
[15]SHEN J, WEI Y D, Yang Z. The impact of environmental regulations on the location of pollution-intensive industries in China[J]. Journal of cleaner production,2017,148:785-794.
[16]仇方道,蒋涛,张纯敏.江苏省污染密集型产业空间转移及影响因素[J].地理科学,2013,33(7):789-796.
[17]崔建鑫,赵海霞.长江三角洲地区污染密集型产业转移及驱动机理[J].地理研究,2015,34(3):504-512.
[18]赵领娣,徐乐.基于长三角扩容准自然实验的区域一体化水污染效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2019,29(3):50-61.
[19]姚洋.发展经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2013.
[20]沈坤荣,金刚,方娴.环境规制引起了污染就近转移吗?[J].经济研究,2017(5):44-58.
[21]CHEN Z,KAHN M E,LIU Y,et al. The consequences of spatially differentiated water pollution regulation in China[J]. Journal of environmental economics and management,2018,88:468-485.
[22]和立道,王英杰,张鑫娜.财政分权、节能环保支出与绿色发展[J].经济与管理评论,2018(6):25-35.
[23]刘华军,雷名雨.中国雾霾污染区域协同治理困境及其破解思路[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(10):88-95.
(1)值得关注的是,表2中得到的整体城市群污染排放的显著减少,与表3中工业企业数和工业总产值均得到负的回归结果在逻辑上具有一致性。这可能印证了理论模型(7)的分析结果,即一体化的空间资源整合中,一些重污染的工业企业同时面临搬迁成本高、被转入地环境管制约束等导致转移成本过高而只能关停、淘汰或转出到更远的中西部地区,从而使得长三角整体城市群污染排放的下降。
(1)为进一步稳健性起见,考虑到模型中对照组城市可能存在一些极端值的影响。比如过去某些城市实行了SO2排放权交易试点、某些城市进行了行政区划调整,以及不同城市受到的工业产能冲击差异等等,从而可能影响了所得到的差分效应。因此,为进一步排除极端值的影响,使对照组数据更加平滑,将对照组城市的被解释变量进行前后5%的截尾处理,重新进行估计,得到的交互项系数便高度显著,与前面基本结论一致。由于篇幅有限,估计结果并未列出,有需要可以跟作者索取。
[2]刘乃全,吴友.长三角扩容能促进区域经济共同增长吗[J].中国工业经济,2017(6):79-97.
[3]张学良,李培鑫,李丽霞.政府合作、市场整合与城市群经济绩效[J].经济学(季刊),2017,16(4):1563-1582.
[4]陈彦斌.推动我国经济高质量发展的六大突破口[N].光明日报,2018-05-29(15).
[5]COPELAND B,RAND M,TAYLOR S. North-south trade and the environment[J]. The quarterly journal of economics,1994,109,(3):755-787.
[6]LIST J A,MILLIMET D L,FREDRIKSSON P G,et al. Effects of environmental regulations on manufacturing plant births:evidence from a propensity score matching estimator[J]. The review of economics and statistics,2003,85(4):944-952.
[7]COLE M A,ELLIOTT R J R,FREDRIKSSON P G. Endogenous pollution havens:does FDI influence environmental regulations?[J].Scandinavian journal of economics,2006,108(1):157-178.
[8]周黎安.中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究[J].经济研究,2007(7):36-50.
[9]XU C. The fundamental institutions of China’s reforms and development[J]. Journal of economic literature,2011,49(4):1076-1151.
[10]韩永辉,黄亮雄,王贤彬.产业政策推动地方产业结构升级了吗?———基于发展型地方政府的理论解释与实证检验[J].经济研究,2017(8):33-48.
[11]HSIEH C T,PETER J K. Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India[J]. Quarterly journal of economics,2009,124(4):1403-1448.
[12]赵勇,魏后凯.政府干预、城市群空间功能分工与地区差距———兼论中国区域政策的有效性[J].管理世界,2015(8):14-29.
[13]踪家峰,岳耀民.官员交流、任期与经济一体化———来自省级经验的证据[J].公共管理学报,2013,10(4):57-67.
[14]豆建民,崔书会.国内市场一体化促进了污染产业转移吗?[J].产业经济研究,2018(4):76-87.
[15]SHEN J, WEI Y D, Yang Z. The impact of environmental regulations on the location of pollution-intensive industries in China[J]. Journal of cleaner production,2017,148:785-794.
[16]仇方道,蒋涛,张纯敏.江苏省污染密集型产业空间转移及影响因素[J].地理科学,2013,33(7):789-796.
[17]崔建鑫,赵海霞.长江三角洲地区污染密集型产业转移及驱动机理[J].地理研究,2015,34(3):504-512.
[18]赵领娣,徐乐.基于长三角扩容准自然实验的区域一体化水污染效应研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2019,29(3):50-61.
[19]姚洋.发展经济学[M].北京:北京大学出版社,2013.
[20]沈坤荣,金刚,方娴.环境规制引起了污染就近转移吗?[J].经济研究,2017(5):44-58.
[21]CHEN Z,KAHN M E,LIU Y,et al. The consequences of spatially differentiated water pollution regulation in China[J]. Journal of environmental economics and management,2018,88:468-485.
[22]和立道,王英杰,张鑫娜.财政分权、节能环保支出与绿色发展[J].经济与管理评论,2018(6):25-35.
[23]刘华军,雷名雨.中国雾霾污染区域协同治理困境及其破解思路[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2018,28(10):88-95.
(1)值得关注的是,表2中得到的整体城市群污染排放的显著减少,与表3中工业企业数和工业总产值均得到负的回归结果在逻辑上具有一致性。这可能印证了理论模型(7)的分析结果,即一体化的空间资源整合中,一些重污染的工业企业同时面临搬迁成本高、被转入地环境管制约束等导致转移成本过高而只能关停、淘汰或转出到更远的中西部地区,从而使得长三角整体城市群污染排放的下降。
(1)为进一步稳健性起见,考虑到模型中对照组城市可能存在一些极端值的影响。比如过去某些城市实行了SO2排放权交易试点、某些城市进行了行政区划调整,以及不同城市受到的工业产能冲击差异等等,从而可能影响了所得到的差分效应。因此,为进一步排除极端值的影响,使对照组数据更加平滑,将对照组城市的被解释变量进行前后5%的截尾处理,重新进行估计,得到的交互项系数便高度显著,与前面基本结论一致。由于篇幅有限,估计结果并未列出,有需要可以跟作者索取。