淮河流域径流过程变化时空特征及成因
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摘要
径流变化特征及成因研究对于农业灌溉、流域水资源配置与管理等具有重要理论与现实意义,而淮河流域是我国重要农业区,因而淮河流域径流过程特征及机理研究更突显其重要性.利用非参数Mann-Kendall趋势检验和小波转换等方法系统分析了淮河中上游息县、王家坝和蒋家集等9个水文站点径流资料,分析淮河流域中上游径流年内分配、年际变化、径流趋势、突变特征及周期变化等径流过程变化特征,并探讨了径流变化特征的成因.研究发现:(1)淮河中上游径流量主要集中于5-9月,约占年径流总量的70.37%,变差系数介于0.16~0.85之间,径流年际极值比则介于1.7~23.9之间,径流年际变化剧烈;(2)淮河中上游径流量整体呈下降趋势,尤其是4-5月径流下降趋势显著,季节变化不明显;(3)各站点年径流量在2000s呈显著周期变化,班台、王家坝、鲁台子和蚌埠站在该尺度上存在2.0~3.4 a尺度的小周期,息县、潢川和蒋家集站处于高能区.季节和汛期与非汛期的显著周期集中出现在1960s、1980s和2000s,1960s周期主要为2~8a.(4)潢川站年径流量对气候因子的响应最为明显,其对混合ENSO指数和太平洋中高纬年代际振荡指数(PDO)的响应分别通过了95%和99%的显著性检验.PDO对各站点月径流的直接影响最为显著,且主要集中在6月份,多呈显著负相关关系,以班台站最为显著,分别在1、4和6月通过了95%的显著性检验.南方涛动指数、北大西洋涛动指数和Nino3.4区海表温度距平指数(Nino3.4)对研究区月径流量的响应存在显著滞后性,Nino3.4对研究区月径流量滞后期的影响主要发生在潢川和蒋家集站,而北极涛动指数和PDO指数无滞后性响应.
The study on runoff variation characteristics and genesis is of great theoretical and practical significance for agriculturalirrigation and water resource management. The Huaihe Basin( HRB) is an important agricultural area in China. Therefore,its characteristics and mechanism of runoff are very important. The runoff data from the nine hydrological stations in the middle and upper reaches of HRB are analyzed in its distribution,abrupt change characteristics and cycle variation,and the causes of runoff variation characteristics. It is found that the runoff of the middle and upper reaches of HRB accounts for about 70. 37% of the total runoff from May to September,with the variation coefficient between 0. 16 and 0. 85,and the inter-annual extreme value ratio between 1. 7 and 2. 3. The runoff fluctuates in the middle reaches of HRB,and the trend of the runoff in the middle and upper reaches of HRB is decreasing,especially the runoff in April and May is significant and the seasonal variation is not obvious. The annual runoff of each site is significantly changed in 2000 s. The runoffs in stations Bantai,Wangjiaba,Lu Taizi stations have a small cycle of 2. 0-3. 4 years. The runoffs in the county,Huangchuan and Jiang Jiake stations were in the high energy area. The seasonality of flood in gand non-flooding periods are mainly in the 1980 s and the 1960 s. The response of the annual runoff to the climatic factors in Huangchuan Station is the most obvious,with significance of 95% and 99% for Multivariate ENSO Index and Pacific Decadal Oscillation( PDO) indices,respectively. The direct impact of PDO on the monthly runoff of each site was the most significant and mainly concentrated in June with a negative correlation. The results showed that the response of Southern Oscillation Index,North Atlantic Oscillation and the Nino3. 4 sea surface temperature( Nino3. 4) to the monthly runoff in the study area was significantly delayed,and Nino3. 4 had a significant effect on the monthly diameter of the study area. The effect of the lag period is mainly in Huangchuan and Jiangjiaji,while the Arctic Oscillation and PDO indices have no lag response.
The study on runoff variation characteristics and genesis is of great theoretical and practical significance for agriculturalirrigation and water resource management. The Huaihe Basin( HRB) is an important agricultural area in China. Therefore,its characteristics and mechanism of runoff are very important. The runoff data from the nine hydrological stations in the middle and upper reaches of HRB are analyzed in its distribution,abrupt change characteristics and cycle variation,and the causes of runoff variation characteristics. It is found that the runoff of the middle and upper reaches of HRB accounts for about 70. 37% of the total runoff from May to September,with the variation coefficient between 0. 16 and 0. 85,and the inter-annual extreme value ratio between 1. 7 and 2. 3. The runoff fluctuates in the middle reaches of HRB,and the trend of the runoff in the middle and upper reaches of HRB is decreasing,especially the runoff in April and May is significant and the seasonal variation is not obvious. The annual runoff of each site is significantly changed in 2000 s. The runoffs in stations Bantai,Wangjiaba,Lu Taizi stations have a small cycle of 2. 0-3. 4 years. The runoffs in the county,Huangchuan and Jiang Jiake stations were in the high energy area. The seasonality of flood in gand non-flooding periods are mainly in the 1980 s and the 1960 s. The response of the annual runoff to the climatic factors in Huangchuan Station is the most obvious,with significance of 95% and 99% for Multivariate ENSO Index and Pacific Decadal Oscillation( PDO) indices,respectively. The direct impact of PDO on the monthly runoff of each site was the most significant and mainly concentrated in June with a negative correlation. The results showed that the response of Southern Oscillation Index,North Atlantic Oscillation and the Nino3. 4 sea surface temperature( Nino3. 4) to the monthly runoff in the study area was significantly delayed,and Nino3. 4 had a significant effect on the monthly diameter of the study area. The effect of the lag period is mainly in Huangchuan and Jiangjiaji,while the Arctic Oscillation and PDO indices have no lag response.
引文
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[19]Wang WS,Ding J,Heng T et al.Wavelet analysis method for identification of periodic component and abrupt change of hydrological series.Engineering Investigation,2003,(1):32-35.[王文圣,丁晶,衡彤等.水文序列周期成分和突变特征识别的小波分析法.工程勘察,2003,(1):32-35.]
[20]Chen J,Wu X,Finlayson BL et al.Variability and trend in the hydrology of the Yangtze River,China:Annual precipitation and runoff.Journal of Hydrology,2014,513(5):403-412.
[21]Zheng YJ,Zhang Q,Chen XH.Changing properties of precipitation structure during 1961—2005 across the Huaihe Basin.Journal of Wuhan University:Natural Science Edition,2015,61(3):247-254.[郑泳杰,张强,陈晓宏.1961-2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析.武汉大学学报:理学版,2015,61(3):247-254.]
[22]Lu YY,Wu BW,Tian H et al.Spatial and temporal variability characteristics of precipitation in Huaihe Basin during1961-2005.Resources&Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2011,20(5):567-573.[卢燕宇,吴必文,田红等.基于Kriging插值的1961-2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析.长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(5):567-573.]
[23]Chen Y,Gao G,Ren GY et al.Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation over ten Major Basins in China between1956 and 2000.Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research,2005,20(5):637-643.[陈峪,高歌,任国玉等.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征.自然资源学报,2005,20(5):637-643.]
[24]Tan YJ,Qiu XF,Zeng Y et al.Variation trend of precipitation in different river basins in recent 50 years.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(4):494-501.[谭云娟,邱新法,曾燕等.近50 a来中国不同流域降水的变化趋势分析.气象科学,2016,36(4):494-501.]
[25]Ning Y,Qian M,Wang YT eds.Handbook of water conservancy in Huaihe Basin.Beijing:Science Press,2003:25-33.[宁远,钱敏,王玉太.淮河流域水利手册.北京:科学出版社,2003:25-33.]
[26]Wang KQ,Zeng Y,Xie ZQ et al.Change trend of temperature and precipitation in Huaihe River Basin from 1961 to2008.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(6):671-677.[王珂清,曾燕,谢志清等.1961-2008年淮河流域气温和降水变化趋势.气象科学,2012,32(6):671-677.]
[27]Chen XF,Li R,Hu J.Drought causes analysis and prevention countermeasures in Huaihe River of Anhui Province.Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2013,41(8):3459-3462.[陈小凤,李瑞,胡军.安徽省淮河流域旱灾成因分析及防治对策.安徽农业科学,2013,41(8):3459-3462.]
[28]Ling HB,Xu HL,Zhang QQ et al.The multi-time scale analysis on climate change and runoff processes in the Tianshan Mountains,Xinjiang.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(11):1908-1917.[凌红波,徐海量,张青青等.1957-2007年新疆天山山区气候变化对径流的影响.自然资源学报,2011,26(11):1908-1917.]
[29]Wang Y,Zhang Q,Zhang S et al.Spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation in the Huaihe River Basin and its response to ENSO events.Scientia Geographica Sinica,2016,36(1):128-134.[王月,张强,张生等.淮河流域降水过程时空特征及其对ENSO影响的响应研究.地理科学,2016,36(1):128-134.]
[30]Feng J,Chen W,Tam CY et al.Different impacts of El Ni1o and El Ni1o Modoki on China rainfall in the decaying phases.International Journal of Climatology,2011,31(14):2091-2101.
[31]Xin ZB,Xie ZR.The impact of enso events on Huaihe River Basin's precipitation.Marine Forecasts,2005,22(4):346-354.[信忠保,谢志仁.ENSO事件对淮河流域降水的影响.气象科学,2005,22(4):346-354.]
[2]Hou QL,Bai HY,Ren YY et al.Analysis of variation in runoff of the main stream of the Weihe River and related driving forces over the last 50 years.Resources Science,2011,33(8):1505-1512.[侯钦磊,白红英,任园园等.50年来渭河干流径流变化及其驱动力分析.资源科学,2011,33(8):1505-1512.]
[3]Ding YJ,Ye BS,Han TD et al.Regional differences in climate and runoff over the past 50 years in Western China.Chinese Science:Earth Science,2007,37(2):206-214.[丁永建,叶柏生,韩添丁等.过去50年中国西部气候和径流变化的区域差异.中国科学:地球科学,2007,37(2):206-214.]
[4]Qin DH,Stocker T.Highlights of the IPCC Working Group I Fifth Assessment Report.Progressus Inquisitiones de Mutatione Climatis,2014,10(1):1-6.[秦大河,Thomas Stocker.IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论.气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.]
[5]Zhang Q,Chen J,Becker S.Flood/drought change of last millennium in the Yangtze Delta and its possible connections with Tibetan climatic changes.Global&Planetary Change,2007,57(3/4):213-221.
[6]Liu GH,Qi SH,Zhu JX et al.Quantitative estimation of runoff changes in Ganjiang River,Lake Poyang Basin under climate change and anthropogenic impacts.J Lake Sci,2016,28(3):682-690.DOI:10.18307/2016.0326.[刘贵花,齐述华,朱婧碹等.气候变化和人类活动对鄱阳湖流域赣江径流影响的定量分析.湖泊科学,2016,28(3):682-690.]
[7]Zhang SF,Zhang JC,Min JJ et al.Drought-flood abrupt alternation based on runoff in the Huaihe River Basin during rainy season.J Lake Sci,2012,24(5):679-686.DOI:10.18307/2012.0506.[张水锋,张金池,闵俊杰等.基于径流分析的淮河流域汛期旱涝急转研究.湖泊科学,2012,24(5):679-686.]
[8]Huaihe Water Conservancy Commission[EB].2008-08-15.[淮河水利委员会.流域概况[EB].2008-08-15.]
[9]Wang YZ ed.Waterlogging disaster and its control in Huaihe River Basin.Beijing:Science Press,2015.[王友贞.淮河流域涝渍灾害及其治理.北京:科学出版社,2015.]
[10]She DX,Xia J,Zhang YY et al.The trend analysis and statistical distribution of extreme rainfall events in the Huaihe River Basin in the past 50 years.Acta Geographica Sinica,2011,66(9):1200-1210.[佘敦先,夏军,张永勇等.近50年来淮河流域极端降水的时空变化及统计特征.地理学报,2011,66(9):1200-1210.]
[11]Du H,Xia J,Zeng SD et al.Temporal and spatial variations and statistical models of extreme runoff in Huaihe River Basin during 1956-2010.Acta Geographica Sinica,2012,67(3):398-409.[杜鸿,夏军,曾思栋等.淮河流域极端径流的时空变化规律及统计模拟.地理学报,2012,67(3):398-409.]
[12]Zhang Q,Wang Y,Singh VP et al.Impacts of ENSO and ENSO Modoki+A regimes on seasonal precipitation variations and possible underlying causes in the Huaihe Basin,China.Journal of Hydrology,2016,53(3):308-319.
[13]Li W,Chen H,Wu XQ et al.Spatio-temporal variation of meteorological drought in a highly urbanized area in Southern China,a case study in Shenzhen City.Journal of North China University of Water Conservancy and Hydropower:Natural Science Edition,2016,37(3):11-18.[李蔚,陈晓宏,吴孝情.中国南方高度城市化地区气象干旱时空演变规律分析——以深圳市为例.华北水利水电大学学报:自然科学版,2016,37(3):11-18.]
[14]Zhang Q,Sun P,Jiang T.Changing properties,causes and impacts of extreme streamflow in Lake Poyang Basin,China.J Lake Sci,2011,23(3):445-453.DOI:10.18307/2011.0319.[张强,孙鹏,江涛等.鄱阳湖流域水文极值演变特征、成因与影响.湖泊科学,2011,23(3):445-453.]
[15]Shi H,Hu C,Wang Y et al.Analyses of trends and causes for variations in runoff and sediment load of the Yellow River.International Journal of Sediment Research,2017,32(2):171-179.
[16]Zhang Q,Gu X,Singh VP et al.Flood frequency under the influence of trends in the Pearl River basin,China:Changingpatterns,causes and implications.Hydrological Processes,2015,29(6):1406-1417.
[17]Zhang W,Yan Y,Zheng J et al.Temporal and spatial variability of annual extreme water level in the Pearl River Delta region,China.Global&Planetary Change,2009,69(1/2):35-47.
[18]Miao LI,Xia J,Chen SM et al.Wavelet analysis on annual precipitation around 300 years in Beijing Area.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(6):1001-1011.[李淼,夏军,陈社明等.北京地区近300年降水变化的小波分析.自然资源学报,2011,26(6):1001-1011.]
[19]Wang WS,Ding J,Heng T et al.Wavelet analysis method for identification of periodic component and abrupt change of hydrological series.Engineering Investigation,2003,(1):32-35.[王文圣,丁晶,衡彤等.水文序列周期成分和突变特征识别的小波分析法.工程勘察,2003,(1):32-35.]
[20]Chen J,Wu X,Finlayson BL et al.Variability and trend in the hydrology of the Yangtze River,China:Annual precipitation and runoff.Journal of Hydrology,2014,513(5):403-412.
[21]Zheng YJ,Zhang Q,Chen XH.Changing properties of precipitation structure during 1961—2005 across the Huaihe Basin.Journal of Wuhan University:Natural Science Edition,2015,61(3):247-254.[郑泳杰,张强,陈晓宏.1961-2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析.武汉大学学报:理学版,2015,61(3):247-254.]
[22]Lu YY,Wu BW,Tian H et al.Spatial and temporal variability characteristics of precipitation in Huaihe Basin during1961-2005.Resources&Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2011,20(5):567-573.[卢燕宇,吴必文,田红等.基于Kriging插值的1961-2005年淮河流域降水时空演变特征分析.长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(5):567-573.]
[23]Chen Y,Gao G,Ren GY et al.Spatial and temporal variation of precipitation over ten Major Basins in China between1956 and 2000.Journal of Natural Resources Policy Research,2005,20(5):637-643.[陈峪,高歌,任国玉等.中国十大流域近40多年降水量时空变化特征.自然资源学报,2005,20(5):637-643.]
[24]Tan YJ,Qiu XF,Zeng Y et al.Variation trend of precipitation in different river basins in recent 50 years.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2016,36(4):494-501.[谭云娟,邱新法,曾燕等.近50 a来中国不同流域降水的变化趋势分析.气象科学,2016,36(4):494-501.]
[25]Ning Y,Qian M,Wang YT eds.Handbook of water conservancy in Huaihe Basin.Beijing:Science Press,2003:25-33.[宁远,钱敏,王玉太.淮河流域水利手册.北京:科学出版社,2003:25-33.]
[26]Wang KQ,Zeng Y,Xie ZQ et al.Change trend of temperature and precipitation in Huaihe River Basin from 1961 to2008.Journal of the Meteorological Sciences,2012,32(6):671-677.[王珂清,曾燕,谢志清等.1961-2008年淮河流域气温和降水变化趋势.气象科学,2012,32(6):671-677.]
[27]Chen XF,Li R,Hu J.Drought causes analysis and prevention countermeasures in Huaihe River of Anhui Province.Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences,2013,41(8):3459-3462.[陈小凤,李瑞,胡军.安徽省淮河流域旱灾成因分析及防治对策.安徽农业科学,2013,41(8):3459-3462.]
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