空气污染的健康效应及经济损失研究——以2014年亚太经济合作组织会议期间为例
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摘要
将北京市在2014年APEC会议期间实行的一系列控制空气污染政策作为一次自然实验,运用固定效应模型工具变量法实证检验空气污染控制政策对公众健康的影响。结果表明,空气污染与居民死亡率显著相关,心血管和呼吸系统等疾病患者对空气污染更为敏感。具体而言,PM2.5和PM10浓度每降低10μg/m3,月平均CVR疾病死亡率(与空气污染相关疾病的死亡率)分别下降约6.64%和6.57%。空气污染对不同年龄组的影响程度不同,儿童和老年人最容易受到恶化的空气质量的伤害,但是恶化的空气质量的危害对儿童和老年人的影响机制却不相同。空气污染物浓度与公共健康直接经济损失呈正相关关系。控制空气污染的政策可以通过改善空气质量来避免居民过早死亡造成的巨大经济损失。
A series of air pollution control policies implemented during the APEC meeting in Beijing in 2014 were taken as a natural experiment. The effects of air pollution control policies on public health were empirically tested using the fixed-effect model tool variable method. The results show that the death is related to the air pollution,especially the deaths caused by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Specifically,10μg/m~3 reduction in PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) concentrations lessen the monthly CVR mortality rate by 6.64 and 6.57 percent respectively.Air pollution differ in affecting different age groups.Children and the elderly are most vulnerable to deteriorating air quality,but the impact of the damage on the two groups is different.The concentration of air pollutants is positively correlated with the direct economic loss of public health.Air pollution control regulations can improve the air quality to avoid the huge economic losses caused by premature deaths.
A series of air pollution control policies implemented during the APEC meeting in Beijing in 2014 were taken as a natural experiment. The effects of air pollution control policies on public health were empirically tested using the fixed-effect model tool variable method. The results show that the death is related to the air pollution,especially the deaths caused by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases. Specifically,10μg/m~3 reduction in PM_(2.5) and PM_(10) concentrations lessen the monthly CVR mortality rate by 6.64 and 6.57 percent respectively.Air pollution differ in affecting different age groups.Children and the elderly are most vulnerable to deteriorating air quality,but the impact of the damage on the two groups is different.The concentration of air pollutants is positively correlated with the direct economic loss of public health.Air pollution control regulations can improve the air quality to avoid the huge economic losses caused by premature deaths.
引文
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[2]常桂秋,潘小川,谢学琴,等.北京市大气污染与城区居民死亡率关系的时间序列分析[J].卫生研究,2003,32(6):566—568.
[3]S E Clark-Reyna,S E Grineski,and T W Collins. Residential Exposure to Air Toxics is Linked to Lower Grade Point Averages Among School Children in El Paso,Texas,USA[J]. Population&Environment,2016,37(3):319—340.
[4]W P Logan. Mortality in the London Fog Incident,1952[J]. The Lancet,1953,1(7):336—338.
[5]高军,徐希平,李包罗,等.北京市海淀区空气污染与居民死亡关系的调查[J].中国慢性病预防与控制,1993,1(5):207—210.
[6]Roger D Peng. Francesca Dominici and Thomas A Louis. Model Choice in Time Series Studies of Air Pollution and Mortality[J].Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,2006,169(2):179—203.
[7]McMichael AJ,Anderson HR and Brunekreef B,et al.Inappropriate Use of Daily Mortality Analyses to Estimate Longer-term Mortality Effects of Air Pollution[J].International Journal of Epidemiology,1998,27(3):450—453.
[8]Simon Hales,Tony Blakely and Alistair Woodward. Air Pollution and Mortality in New Zealand:Cohort Study[J].Journal of Epidemiology&Community Health,2010,66(5):468—473.
[9]Arden Pope III.Mortality Effects of Longer Term Exposures to Fine Particulate Air Pollution:Review of Recent Epidemiological Evidence[J].Inhalation Toxicology,2007,19(1):33—38.
[10]Jie Cao,Chunxue Yang and Jianxin Li,et al.Association Between Long-term Exposure to Outdoor Air Pollution and Mortality in China:A Cohort Study[J].Journal of Hazardous Materials,2010,186(2):1594—1600.
[11]D A Pope III.Respiratory Disease Associated With Community Air Pollution and a Steel mill,Utah Valley[J].Am J Public Health,1989,79(5):623—628.
[12]Yuyu Chen,Avraham Ebenstein and Michael Greenstone,et al.Evidence on The Impact of Sustained Exposure to Air pollution on Life Expectancy From China’s Huai River Policy[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America,2013,110(32):12936—12941.
[13]Cheng Huang,Catherine Nichols and Yang Liu,et al.Ambient Air Pollution and Adverse Birth Outcomes:A Natural Experiment Study[J].Population Health Metrics,2015,13(1):1—17.
[14]Mathilde Pascal,Grégoire Falq and VérèneWagner,et al.Short-term Impacts of Particulate Matter(PM10,PM10-2.5,PM2.5)on Mortality in Nine French Cities[J].Atmospheric Environment,2014,95(10):175—184.
[15]N A H Janssen,P Fischer and M Marra,et al. Short-term Effects of PM2.5,PM10 and PM2.5-10 on Daily Mortality in the Netherlands[J].Science of The Total Environment,2013,463-464(1):20—26.
[16]Hien Tran,Jeongyeong Kim and Daeun Kim,et al.Impact of Air Pollution on Cause-specific Mortality in Korea:Results From Bayesian Model Averaging and Principle Component Regression Approaches[J].Science of The Total Environment,2018,636(6):1020—1031.
(1)Ambient air pollution:A Global Assessment of Exposure and Burden of Disease.World Health Organization,2016.
(2)Cost of Pollution in China:Economic Estimates of Physical Damages.World Bank,Washington,2016.