茶叶出口萎缩对近代中国贸易条件的影响——基于历史计量的视角
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摘要
贸易条件是衡量一国在国际市场中竞争实力和利益获得的重要指标,1867—1931年进出口贸易数据显示出中国贸易条件存在恶化趋势,同期茶叶作为近代中国最具有比较优势和代表性的出口商品,也经历了由盛及衰的变化过程。茶叶出口萎缩是近代中国贸易条件恶化的主要原因吗?本文试图通过历史计量研究来回答这一问题。研究结果表明,茶叶出口对贸易条件变化有显著的正向影响,茶叶出口萎缩确实是引发贸易条件恶化的主要原因;作者进一步将生丝出口和棉纱进口因素纳入模型,证明了这一结论的稳健性。本研究印证了比较优势在国际贸易中的重要作用,给予了近代中国贸易条件变化规律一个可信的解释,相关结论也可为当前中国农产品对外贸易形势评估和政策制定提供历史借鉴。
The terms of trade are regarded as important indicators to measure a country's competition strength and benefits in the international market.In the year from 1867 to 1931,the data of China's international trade showed that there is a trend of deterioration of the term of trade.At the same time,as the main export commodity and the most comparative advantage export commodity in modernChina,tea also experienced a shrink.Is the shrink of tea export as the main reason of the deterioration of the terms of trade? This paper tries to answer this question by an empirical research.The empirical results show that the tea exporting has significant positive influence on the change of the terms of trade; the tea export shrinkage is the main reason for the deterioration of terms of trade.When we extend the analysis by taking the raw silk export and cotton yarn import,we get the same conclusion.The conclusion of this paper confirms the importance of comparative advantage in international trade,gives a plausible explanation for the deterioration of terms of trade in modern China,and provides historical basis for current international trade policy of China's agricultural products.
The terms of trade are regarded as important indicators to measure a country's competition strength and benefits in the international market.In the year from 1867 to 1931,the data of China's international trade showed that there is a trend of deterioration of the term of trade.At the same time,as the main export commodity and the most comparative advantage export commodity in modernChina,tea also experienced a shrink.Is the shrink of tea export as the main reason of the deterioration of the terms of trade? This paper tries to answer this question by an empirical research.The empirical results show that the tea exporting has significant positive influence on the change of the terms of trade; the tea export shrinkage is the main reason for the deterioration of terms of trade.When we extend the analysis by taking the raw silk export and cotton yarn import,we get the same conclusion.The conclusion of this paper confirms the importance of comparative advantage in international trade,gives a plausible explanation for the deterioration of terms of trade in modern China,and provides historical basis for current international trade policy of China's agricultural products.
引文
[1]袁欣.近代中国的贸易条件:一般趋势及其与农产品贸易的关系[J].中国农史,2008(3):76—83
[2]Hou C M.Foreign Investment and Economic Development in China,1840—1937[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1965.
[3]Dernberger R.F.The Role of the Foreigner in China’s Economic in Historical Perspective,1840—1949.In Dwight Perkins,ed.China’s Modern Economy in Historical Perspective [M].California:Stanford University Press,1975:19—49.
[4]Huenemann R W.The Dragon and Iron Horse:the Economics of Railroad in China,1876—1937[M].Cambridge,The Council on East Asian Studies,Harvard University,1984.
[5]Prebisch R.The Economic Development of Latin American and Its Principal Problems [M].New York:United Nations Publication,1950.
[6]Singer H W.The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries [J].American Economic Review,1950(2):473—485.
[7]Bhagwati J.Immiserating growth:a Geometrical Note[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1958(3):201—205
[8]Levis A W.The Evolution of the International Economic Order.New Jersey:Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University Discussion paper,1977.
[9]李康华.中国对外贸易史简论[M].北京:对外贸易出版社,1981.
[10]袁欣.1868—1936年中国茶叶贸易衰弱的数量分析[J].中国社会经济史研究,2005(1):90—99.
[11]仲伟民.茶叶与鸦片:十九世纪经济全球化中的中国[M].北京:三联书店,2010.
[12]闻云峰.近代中国茶叶对外贸易经济效益的综合分析[D].南京大学硕士学位论文,2011.
[13]陈争平.中国经济史探索:陈争平文集[M].浙江大学出版社,2012.
[14]张九洲.论近代中国的银汇波动与对外贸易[J].史学月刊,1997(3):34—38.
[15]林满红.对外汇率长期下跌对清末国际贸易与物价之影响(1874—1911)[J].教学与研究,1979(1):147—176.
[16]王良行.上海贸易条件研究(1867—1931)[J].近代史研究,1996(3):44—87.
[17]袁欣.转型时期的中国对外贸易[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,2008.
[18]杨小玲.贸易条件理论研究的滥觞与发展[J].当代经济管理,2012(2):5—9
[19]李一文,王仁才.近代中国对美国贸易的贸易条件分析[J].南开经济研究,2000(5):74—78.
[20]韩青.中国贸易条件及其影响因素的经验分析:1980—2002[J].经济科学,2006(6):66—76.
[21]辛佳.中国贸易条件影响因素的实证与规范分析[D].哈尔滨工业大学硕士学位论文,2008.
[22]周建明.20世纪20至30年代的中德贸易条件及价格变动趋势分析[J].中国社会经济史研究,2006(2):82—96.
[23]张建华,刘庆玉.中国贸易条件影响因素的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2004(6):20—23.
[24]孙敬水,姚晶晶.贸易条件变动影响因素的主成分分析——以浙江省为例[J].国际贸易问题,2008(8):82—87.
[25]张海波,刘洪钟.中国贸易条件的变动趋势测算及影响因素分析[J].国际经贸探索,2008(12):9—13.
[26]李英楠.中国初级产品贸易条件影响因素的实证分析[D].辽宁大学硕士学位论文,2013.
[27]孔敏主编.南开经济指数资料汇编[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1988.
[28]袁欣.对外贸易经济效益研究——中国历史发展的经验[M].广州:中山大学出版社,2004.
[29]陈昭,刘巍.对1887—1909年中国狭义货币供应量M1的估计[J].中国经济史研究,2011(4):24—30.
[30]刘巍.中国的货币供求与经济增长(1927—1936年)[J].中国社会经济史研究,2004(1):80—89.
[31]巫宝三主编.中国国民所得(上册)[M].北京:中华书局,1947.75—76.
[32]姚贤镐.中国近代对外贸易史资料(1840—1895):第二册[M].北京:中华书局,1962.
[33]张元明.民国国际贸易史料汇编[M].凤凰出版社,2014.
[34]严中平等编.中国近代经济史统计资料选辑[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2009.
[2]Hou C M.Foreign Investment and Economic Development in China,1840—1937[M].Cambridge:Harvard University Press,1965.
[3]Dernberger R.F.The Role of the Foreigner in China’s Economic in Historical Perspective,1840—1949.In Dwight Perkins,ed.China’s Modern Economy in Historical Perspective [M].California:Stanford University Press,1975:19—49.
[4]Huenemann R W.The Dragon and Iron Horse:the Economics of Railroad in China,1876—1937[M].Cambridge,The Council on East Asian Studies,Harvard University,1984.
[5]Prebisch R.The Economic Development of Latin American and Its Principal Problems [M].New York:United Nations Publication,1950.
[6]Singer H W.The Distribution of Gains between Investing and Borrowing Countries [J].American Economic Review,1950(2):473—485.
[7]Bhagwati J.Immiserating growth:a Geometrical Note[J].The Review of Economic Studies,1958(3):201—205
[8]Levis A W.The Evolution of the International Economic Order.New Jersey:Woodrow Wilson School Princeton University Discussion paper,1977.
[9]李康华.中国对外贸易史简论[M].北京:对外贸易出版社,1981.
[10]袁欣.1868—1936年中国茶叶贸易衰弱的数量分析[J].中国社会经济史研究,2005(1):90—99.
[11]仲伟民.茶叶与鸦片:十九世纪经济全球化中的中国[M].北京:三联书店,2010.
[12]闻云峰.近代中国茶叶对外贸易经济效益的综合分析[D].南京大学硕士学位论文,2011.
[13]陈争平.中国经济史探索:陈争平文集[M].浙江大学出版社,2012.
[14]张九洲.论近代中国的银汇波动与对外贸易[J].史学月刊,1997(3):34—38.
[15]林满红.对外汇率长期下跌对清末国际贸易与物价之影响(1874—1911)[J].教学与研究,1979(1):147—176.
[16]王良行.上海贸易条件研究(1867—1931)[J].近代史研究,1996(3):44—87.
[17]袁欣.转型时期的中国对外贸易[M].北京:对外经济贸易大学出版社,2008.
[18]杨小玲.贸易条件理论研究的滥觞与发展[J].当代经济管理,2012(2):5—9
[19]李一文,王仁才.近代中国对美国贸易的贸易条件分析[J].南开经济研究,2000(5):74—78.
[20]韩青.中国贸易条件及其影响因素的经验分析:1980—2002[J].经济科学,2006(6):66—76.
[21]辛佳.中国贸易条件影响因素的实证与规范分析[D].哈尔滨工业大学硕士学位论文,2008.
[22]周建明.20世纪20至30年代的中德贸易条件及价格变动趋势分析[J].中国社会经济史研究,2006(2):82—96.
[23]张建华,刘庆玉.中国贸易条件影响因素的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2004(6):20—23.
[24]孙敬水,姚晶晶.贸易条件变动影响因素的主成分分析——以浙江省为例[J].国际贸易问题,2008(8):82—87.
[25]张海波,刘洪钟.中国贸易条件的变动趋势测算及影响因素分析[J].国际经贸探索,2008(12):9—13.
[26]李英楠.中国初级产品贸易条件影响因素的实证分析[D].辽宁大学硕士学位论文,2013.
[27]孔敏主编.南开经济指数资料汇编[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,1988.
[28]袁欣.对外贸易经济效益研究——中国历史发展的经验[M].广州:中山大学出版社,2004.
[29]陈昭,刘巍.对1887—1909年中国狭义货币供应量M1的估计[J].中国经济史研究,2011(4):24—30.
[30]刘巍.中国的货币供求与经济增长(1927—1936年)[J].中国社会经济史研究,2004(1):80—89.
[31]巫宝三主编.中国国民所得(上册)[M].北京:中华书局,1947.75—76.
[32]姚贤镐.中国近代对外贸易史资料(1840—1895):第二册[M].北京:中华书局,1962.
[33]张元明.民国国际贸易史料汇编[M].凤凰出版社,2014.
[34]严中平等编.中国近代经济史统计资料选辑[M].北京:中国社会科学出版社,2009.