“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资风险的时空格局及驱动机制
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摘要
选取"一带一路"沿线56个国家为研究对象,结合相关数据,采用熵权法计算"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资风险,使用自然断点法将各国分为高风险区、较高风险区、中等风险区、较低风险区和低风险区5类不同的风险区域,分析其时空格局,并采用地理探测器法研究其驱动机制。结果表明:自2013年以来,"一带一路"沿线国家中低风险区和较低风险区国家数量减少,高风险区国家数量增加;较低风险区的国家分布于西亚、南亚和东南亚,中等风险区的国家大多分布在中东欧地区,高风险区和较高风险区的国家数量多且分布广泛。"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资风险时空格局的主要驱动因子为总储备、GDP、政府效能、人均GDP、法制程度、城镇人口和监管质量;各指标因子经过两两交互之后对"一带一路"沿线国家直接投资风险格局的影响力均呈现相互增强或非线性增强。
By selecting 56 countries as the study object and combining the relevant data,the direct investment risk of countries along the Belt and Road was calculated by entropy method,the natural breakpoint method was used to divide the countries into 5-class risk area including a high-risk area,a higher-risk area,a middle-risk area,a lower risk area and a low-risk area and the space-time pattern were analyzed,and the driving mechanism was studied by Geodetector method. The results showed that since 2013,the number of low-risk and lower-risk areas decreased and the number of high-risk countries increased in the countries along the Belt and Road. The countries in the lower risk areas were distributed in West Asia,South Asia and Southeast Asia,and the countries in the medium risk areas were mostly in the Central and Eastern Europe Region,and the countries in the high risk areas and the higher risk areas were more and more widely distributed. The main driving factors of the spatial and temporal pattern of direct investment risk in the countries along the Belt and Road were total reserves,gross domestic product,government efficiency,per capita gross domestic product,legal system,and urban population and supervision quality. The influence of each index factor on the risk pattern of direct investment in the countries along the Belt and Road showed mutual or non-linear enhancement after pairwise interaction.
By selecting 56 countries as the study object and combining the relevant data,the direct investment risk of countries along the Belt and Road was calculated by entropy method,the natural breakpoint method was used to divide the countries into 5-class risk area including a high-risk area,a higher-risk area,a middle-risk area,a lower risk area and a low-risk area and the space-time pattern were analyzed,and the driving mechanism was studied by Geodetector method. The results showed that since 2013,the number of low-risk and lower-risk areas decreased and the number of high-risk countries increased in the countries along the Belt and Road. The countries in the lower risk areas were distributed in West Asia,South Asia and Southeast Asia,and the countries in the medium risk areas were mostly in the Central and Eastern Europe Region,and the countries in the high risk areas and the higher risk areas were more and more widely distributed. The main driving factors of the spatial and temporal pattern of direct investment risk in the countries along the Belt and Road were total reserves,gross domestic product,government efficiency,per capita gross domestic product,legal system,and urban population and supervision quality. The influence of each index factor on the risk pattern of direct investment in the countries along the Belt and Road showed mutual or non-linear enhancement after pairwise interaction.
引文
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[36]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1)∶116-134.
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[2]Thomas D E,Grosse R. Country-of-origin Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in an Emerging Market:The Case of Mexico[J]. Journal of International Management,2001,7(1)∶59-79.
[3]Buckley P J,Clegg L J,Cross A R,et al. The Determinants of Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,2007,38(4)∶499-518.
[4]Bala Ramasamy,Matthew Yeung. The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Services[J]. The World Economyvol,2010,33(4)∶573-596.
[5]Agarwal S,Ramaswami S N. Choice of Foreign Market Entry Mode:Impact of Ownership,Location and Internalization Factors[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,1992,23(1)∶1-27.
[6]李一文.我国海外投资风险预警研究[J].管理世界,2016,(9)∶178-179.
[7]聂名华.境外直接投资风险识别及其模糊综合评价[J].中南财经政法大学学报,2007,(2)∶86-90.
[8]张艳辉,杜念茹,李宗伟,等.国家政治风险对我国对外直接投资的影响研究———来自112个国家的经验证据[J].投资研究,2016,35(2)∶19-30.
[9]Robock S H. Political Risk:Identification and Assessment[J]. Columbia Journal of World Business,1971,6(4)∶6-20.
[10]Brouthers K D. The Influence of International Risk on Entry Mode Strategy in the Computer Software Industry[J]. Management International Review,1995,35(1)∶7-28.
[11]Miller K D. A Framework for Integrated Risk Management in International Business[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,1992,23(2)∶311-331.
[12]Miller K D. Industry and Country Effects on Managers'Perceptions of Environmental Uncertainties[J]. Journal of International Business Studies,1993,24(4)∶693-714.
[13]国家发展改革委外交部商务部.推动共建丝绸之路经济带和21世纪海上丝绸之路的愿景与行动[N].人民日报,2015-03-29(4).
[14]习近平.携手推进“一带一路”建设[N].人民日报,2017-05-15(3).
[15]刘卫东.“一带一路”战略的科学内涵与科学问题[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(5)∶538-544.
[16]杜德斌,马亚华.“一带一路”:中华民族复兴的地缘大战略[J].地理研究,2015,34(6)∶1005-1014.
[17]刘晓凤,葛岳静,赵亚博.国家距离与中国企业在“一带一路”投资区位选择[J].经济地理,2017,37(11)∶99-108.
[18]邹嘉龄,刘春腊,尹国庆,等.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家贸易格局及其经济贡献[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(5)∶598-605.
[19]李坤.中国对“一带一路”国家直接投资的产业选择研究[D].武汉:湖北大学博士学位论文,2016.
[20]孙祁祥,锁凌燕,郑伟.“一带一路”与新型全球化:风险及应对[J].中共中央党校学报,2017,21(6)∶100-106.
[21]翁东玲.“一带一路”建设的金融支持与合作风险探讨[J].东北亚论坛,2016,25(6)∶46-57,125.
[22]黄剑.中国与“一带一路”沿线国家项目对接风险及应对策略[J].北京工商大学学报(社会科学版),2017,32(6)∶14-22.
[23]王永中,李曦晨.中国对一带一路沿线国家投资风险评估[J].开放导报,2015,(4)∶30-34.
[24]聂娜.中国参与共建“一带一路”的对外投资风险来源及防范机制[J].当代经济管理,2016,38(9)∶84-90.
[25]李锋.“一带一路”沿线国家的投资风险与应对策略[J].中国流通经济,2016,30(2)∶115-121.
[26]凌兰兰,陶士贵.“一带一路”战略研究述评[J].改革与战略,2017,33(1)∶49-52,89.
[27]周五七.“一带一路”沿线直接投资分布与挑战应对[J].改革,2015,(8)∶39-47.
[28]齐晓凡,丁新举.“一带一路”战略下中国企业海外投资风险应对[J].企业管理,2017,(1)∶85-87.
[29]胡俊超,王丹丹.“一带一路”沿线国家国别风险研究[J].经济问题,2016,(5)∶1-6,43.
[30]周伟,陈昭,吴先明.中国在“一带一路”OFDI的国家风险研究:基于39个沿线东道国的量化评价[J].世界经济研究,2017,(8)∶15-25,135.
[31]苏馨.中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的风险研究[D].长春:吉林大学硕士学位论文,2017.
[32]高虎城.深化经贸合作共创新的辉煌———“一带一路”战略构建经贸合作新格局[J].国际商务财会,2014,(6)∶5-7.
[33]江红,杨小柳.基于熵权的亚太地区水安全评价[J].地理科学进展,2015,34(3)∶373-380.
[34]曾金芳.基于熵权法的油气资源投资环境综合评价研究[D].北京:中国地质大学(北京)硕士学位论文,2011.
[35]方尹,陈俊华,代欢欢.“一带一路”背景下海湾国家投资环境综合评价[J].世界地理研究,2018,27(2)∶36-44,94.
[36]王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1)∶116-134.
[37]吴彤.中国对“丝绸之路经济带”沿线国家直接投资的风险分析[D].西安:陕西师范大学硕士学位论文,2017.
[38]许勤华. 2018“一带一路”能源资源投资政治风险评估报告[R].北京:中国人民大学国发院能源与资源战略研究中心,2018.