考虑企业生产能力储备的应急物资配置随机规划模型
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摘要
需求的不确定性极大地影响着应急物资配置,易导致物资供应不足或过剩.本文引入企业生产能力差异,考虑受灾地和需求量的不确定性,以经济成本和惩罚成本最小为目标,建立基于情景的应急物资配置两阶段随机规划模型,第1阶段确定不同生产能力企业的布局和实物储备,第2阶段根据情景中受灾地需求量的不同生产并配送物资,应用样本均值逼近方法求解模型.基于2008年雨雪冰冻灾害、汶川地震、华南和中南地区洪灾,以及台风"黑格比"等自然灾害数据,设计情景进行算例分析.结果表明,储备物资生产能力,并适当考虑供给延迟和不足的惩罚,既可大幅减少实物储备,又能降低物资供应不足的风险;过度追求风险最小,需大量增加实物和生产能力储备,易造成资源浪费.
The uncertainty of demand impose great impact on emergency supplies allocation.The inappropriate decisions may easily result in insufficient supply or waste.The production capacity of enterprise and uncertainties in disaster-affected locations and demand are integrated in a two-stage stochastic programming model,which are configured with the objectives of minimizing economic and penalty costs.The location of enterprises and physical inventory are determined in the first stage.Then,depending on demand for scenarios,production and distribution decisions are made in the second stage.A sample average approximation method is proposed for solving the model.Based on data from snowstorm,earthquake,flood and typhoon in China,2008,a serial scenarios are designed for numerical studies.The results show that storing production capacity for supplies and introducing penalty for delay and shortage of demand are beneficial for decreasing physical inventory and risk of insufficient supply.Moreover,physical inventory and production capacity should be greatly increased if minimizing risk of insufficient supply,which may easily result in waste of resources.
The uncertainty of demand impose great impact on emergency supplies allocation.The inappropriate decisions may easily result in insufficient supply or waste.The production capacity of enterprise and uncertainties in disaster-affected locations and demand are integrated in a two-stage stochastic programming model,which are configured with the objectives of minimizing economic and penalty costs.The location of enterprises and physical inventory are determined in the first stage.Then,depending on demand for scenarios,production and distribution decisions are made in the second stage.A sample average approximation method is proposed for solving the model.Based on data from snowstorm,earthquake,flood and typhoon in China,2008,a serial scenarios are designed for numerical studies.The results show that storing production capacity for supplies and introducing penalty for delay and shortage of demand are beneficial for decreasing physical inventory and risk of insufficient supply.Moreover,physical inventory and production capacity should be greatly increased if minimizing risk of insufficient supply,which may easily result in waste of resources.
引文
[1]中华人民共和国民政部规划财务司.国家综合防灾减灾规划“十二五”规划[EB/OL].[2016-11-20].http://cws.mca.gov.cn/article/jhgh.201102/20110200133426.shtml.
[2]张文峰.应急物资储备模式及其储备量研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2010.
[3]张永领.中国政府应急物资的储备模式研究[J].经济与管理,2011,25(2):92-96.Zhang Y L.The study on emergency material reserve model of Chinese government[J].Economy and Management,2011,25(2):92-96.
[4]Doyen A,Aras N,Barbarosoglu G.A two-echelon stochastic facility location model for humanitarian relief logistics[J].Optimization Letters,2012,6(6):1123-1145.
[5]田军,葛永玲,侯丛丛.政府主导的基于实物期权契约的应急物资采购模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(10):2582-2590.Tian J,Ge Y L,Hou C C.Government-driving emergency supplies procurement model based on real option contract[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2014,34(10):2582-2590.
[6]Falasca M,Zobel C W.A two-stage procurement model for humanitarian relief supply chains[J].Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management,2011,1(2):151-169.
[7]Balcik B,Ak D.Supplier selection for framework agreements in humanitarian relief[J].Production and Operations Management,2014,23(6):1028-1041.
[8]葛洪磊,刘南.复杂灾害情景下应急物资配置的随机规划模型[J]·系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(12):3034-3042.Ge H L,Liu N.A stochastic programming model for relief resources allocation problem based on complex disaster scenarios[J].Systems Engineering一Theory&Practice,2014,34(12):3034-3042.
[9]Roni M S,Jin M,Eksioglu S D.A hybrid inventory management system responding to regular demand and surge demand[J].Omega,2015,52:190-200.
[10]Mansini R,Savelsbergh M,Tocchella B.The supplier selection problem with quantity discounts and truckload shipping[J].Omega,2012,40(4):445-455.
[11]Hammami R,Temponi C,Frein Y.A scenario-based stochastic model for supplier selection in global context with multiple buyers,currency fluctuation uncertainties,and price discounts[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2014,233(1):159-170.
[12]Qian L.Market-based supplier selection with price,delivery time,and service level dependent demand[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2014,147:697-706.
[13]Ware N R,Singh S P,Banwet D K.A mixed-integer non-linear program to model dynamic supplier selection problem[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2014,41(2):671-678.
[14]Guo C,Li X.A multi-echelon inventory system with supplier selection and order allocation under stochastic demand[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2014,151:37-47.
[15]Deng S,Aydin R,Kwong C K,et al.Integrated product line design and supplier selection:A multi-objective optimization paradigm[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2014,70:150-158.
[16]Choudhary D,Shankar R.Joint decision of procurement lot-size,supplier selection,and carrier selection[J].Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management,2013,19(1):16-26.
[17]Choudhary D,Shankar R.A goal programming model for joint decision making of inventory lot-size,supplier selection and carrier selection[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2014,71:1-9.
[18]罗静,李从东.基于演化博弈的应急物资生产能力储备策略[J].工业工程,2015,18(2):15-19.Lou J,Li C D.Capacity reserve strategy of emergency materials based on evolutionary game[J].IndustrialEngineering Journal,2015,18(2):15-19.
[19]陈涛,黄钧,张玲.协议企业实物储备、生产能力储备模式的协调性研究[J].中国管理科学,2013,21(5):149-156.Chen T,Huang J,Zhang L.Research on coordination of the enterprises in-kind agreement physical reserves and production capacity reserves mode[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2013,21(5):149-156.
[20]陈业华,史开菊.突发事件灾前应急物资政企联合储备模式[J].系统工程,2014,32(2):84-90.Chen Y H,Shi K J.Emergency materials reserve mode based on government and manufacture joint before emergencies[J].Systems Engineering,2014,32(2):84-90.
[21]张自立,李向阳,王桂森.基于生产能力储备的应急物资协议企业选择研究[J].运筹与管理,2009,18(1):146-150.Zhang Z L,Li X Y,Wang G S.Research on selecting emergency material agreement enterprises based on productivity reserve[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2009,18(1):146-150.
[22]张自立,李向阳,张紫琼.基于生产能力共同储备的政府和企业应急经费规划模型[J].管理工程学报,2011,25(1):56-61.Zhang Z L,Li X Y,Zhang Z Q.Emergency fund planning model based on associated production capacity reserve of the government and enterprises[J].Journal of Industrial Engineering/Engineering Management,2011,25(1):56-61.
[23]Barbarosoglu G,Arda Y.A two-stage stochastic programming framework for transportation planning in disaster response[J].Journal of Operational Research Society,2004,55:43-53.
[24]Chang M S,Tseng Y L,Chen J W.A scenario planning approach for the flood emergency logistics preparation problem under uncertainty[J].Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2007,43(6):737-754.
[25]Rawls C G,Turnquist M A.Pre-positioning of emergency supplies for disaster response[J],Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2010,44(4):521-534.
[26]Mete H O,Zabinsky Z B.Stochastic optimization of medical supply location and distribution in disaster management[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2010,126(1):76-84.
[27]Dong J X,Lee C Y,Song D P.Joint service capacity planning and dynamic container routing in shipping network with uncertain demands[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2015,78:404-421.
[28]Long Y,Lee L H,Chew E P.The sample average approximation method for empty container repositioning with uncertainties[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2012,222(1):65-75.
[29]Ozdemir D,Yiicesan E,Herer Y T.Multi-location transshipment problem with capacitated production[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2013,226(3):425-435.
[30]民政部,水利部.2008年十大自然灾害事件[J].中国减灾,2009(1):7-9.
[2]张文峰.应急物资储备模式及其储备量研究[D].北京:北京交通大学,2010.
[3]张永领.中国政府应急物资的储备模式研究[J].经济与管理,2011,25(2):92-96.Zhang Y L.The study on emergency material reserve model of Chinese government[J].Economy and Management,2011,25(2):92-96.
[4]Doyen A,Aras N,Barbarosoglu G.A two-echelon stochastic facility location model for humanitarian relief logistics[J].Optimization Letters,2012,6(6):1123-1145.
[5]田军,葛永玲,侯丛丛.政府主导的基于实物期权契约的应急物资采购模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(10):2582-2590.Tian J,Ge Y L,Hou C C.Government-driving emergency supplies procurement model based on real option contract[J].Systems Engineering—Theory&Practice,2014,34(10):2582-2590.
[6]Falasca M,Zobel C W.A two-stage procurement model for humanitarian relief supply chains[J].Journal of Humanitarian Logistics and Supply Chain Management,2011,1(2):151-169.
[7]Balcik B,Ak D.Supplier selection for framework agreements in humanitarian relief[J].Production and Operations Management,2014,23(6):1028-1041.
[8]葛洪磊,刘南.复杂灾害情景下应急物资配置的随机规划模型[J]·系统工程理论与实践,2014,34(12):3034-3042.Ge H L,Liu N.A stochastic programming model for relief resources allocation problem based on complex disaster scenarios[J].Systems Engineering一Theory&Practice,2014,34(12):3034-3042.
[9]Roni M S,Jin M,Eksioglu S D.A hybrid inventory management system responding to regular demand and surge demand[J].Omega,2015,52:190-200.
[10]Mansini R,Savelsbergh M,Tocchella B.The supplier selection problem with quantity discounts and truckload shipping[J].Omega,2012,40(4):445-455.
[11]Hammami R,Temponi C,Frein Y.A scenario-based stochastic model for supplier selection in global context with multiple buyers,currency fluctuation uncertainties,and price discounts[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2014,233(1):159-170.
[12]Qian L.Market-based supplier selection with price,delivery time,and service level dependent demand[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2014,147:697-706.
[13]Ware N R,Singh S P,Banwet D K.A mixed-integer non-linear program to model dynamic supplier selection problem[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2014,41(2):671-678.
[14]Guo C,Li X.A multi-echelon inventory system with supplier selection and order allocation under stochastic demand[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2014,151:37-47.
[15]Deng S,Aydin R,Kwong C K,et al.Integrated product line design and supplier selection:A multi-objective optimization paradigm[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2014,70:150-158.
[16]Choudhary D,Shankar R.Joint decision of procurement lot-size,supplier selection,and carrier selection[J].Journal of Purchasing and Supply Management,2013,19(1):16-26.
[17]Choudhary D,Shankar R.A goal programming model for joint decision making of inventory lot-size,supplier selection and carrier selection[J].Computers&Industrial Engineering,2014,71:1-9.
[18]罗静,李从东.基于演化博弈的应急物资生产能力储备策略[J].工业工程,2015,18(2):15-19.Lou J,Li C D.Capacity reserve strategy of emergency materials based on evolutionary game[J].IndustrialEngineering Journal,2015,18(2):15-19.
[19]陈涛,黄钧,张玲.协议企业实物储备、生产能力储备模式的协调性研究[J].中国管理科学,2013,21(5):149-156.Chen T,Huang J,Zhang L.Research on coordination of the enterprises in-kind agreement physical reserves and production capacity reserves mode[J].Chinese Journal of Management Science,2013,21(5):149-156.
[20]陈业华,史开菊.突发事件灾前应急物资政企联合储备模式[J].系统工程,2014,32(2):84-90.Chen Y H,Shi K J.Emergency materials reserve mode based on government and manufacture joint before emergencies[J].Systems Engineering,2014,32(2):84-90.
[21]张自立,李向阳,王桂森.基于生产能力储备的应急物资协议企业选择研究[J].运筹与管理,2009,18(1):146-150.Zhang Z L,Li X Y,Wang G S.Research on selecting emergency material agreement enterprises based on productivity reserve[J].Operations Research and Management Science,2009,18(1):146-150.
[22]张自立,李向阳,张紫琼.基于生产能力共同储备的政府和企业应急经费规划模型[J].管理工程学报,2011,25(1):56-61.Zhang Z L,Li X Y,Zhang Z Q.Emergency fund planning model based on associated production capacity reserve of the government and enterprises[J].Journal of Industrial Engineering/Engineering Management,2011,25(1):56-61.
[23]Barbarosoglu G,Arda Y.A two-stage stochastic programming framework for transportation planning in disaster response[J].Journal of Operational Research Society,2004,55:43-53.
[24]Chang M S,Tseng Y L,Chen J W.A scenario planning approach for the flood emergency logistics preparation problem under uncertainty[J].Transportation Research Part E:Logistics and Transportation Review,2007,43(6):737-754.
[25]Rawls C G,Turnquist M A.Pre-positioning of emergency supplies for disaster response[J],Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2010,44(4):521-534.
[26]Mete H O,Zabinsky Z B.Stochastic optimization of medical supply location and distribution in disaster management[J].International Journal of Production Economics,2010,126(1):76-84.
[27]Dong J X,Lee C Y,Song D P.Joint service capacity planning and dynamic container routing in shipping network with uncertain demands[J].Transportation Research Part B:Methodological,2015,78:404-421.
[28]Long Y,Lee L H,Chew E P.The sample average approximation method for empty container repositioning with uncertainties[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2012,222(1):65-75.
[29]Ozdemir D,Yiicesan E,Herer Y T.Multi-location transshipment problem with capacitated production[J].European Journal of Operational Research,2013,226(3):425-435.
[30]民政部,水利部.2008年十大自然灾害事件[J].中国减灾,2009(1):7-9.