1978～2014年中国玉米生产的时空特征变化研究
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摘要
[目的]厘清中国玉米生产的时空变化特征,有助于保障玉米的持续、稳定供应。[方法]文章采用经验模态分解等方法,基于玉米总产、播种面积及单产3个指标,从全国和省域两个尺度系统分析1978~2014年中国玉米生产的时空特征。[结果](1)研究期间,全国玉米产量增加了1.60亿t,其波动量呈现先增大后减小的趋势,波动指数的变化幅度不大;玉米播种面积增加了1 716万hm~2,其变化趋势与玉米总产量的变化趋势基本一致;玉米单产从1978年的2 802.7kg/hm~2波动性增至2014年的5 809.1kg/hm~2,总体波动幅度大于玉米播种面积和总产量的波动幅度。(2)研究期间,省域玉米增加量呈现出"北高南低"的特征,中国玉米生产重心进一步北移;省域玉米播种面积增加量呈现出"北高南低""西高东低"的特征,东北区和华北区的玉米播种面积进一步扩大;省域玉米单产增加量呈现出"西高东低""北高南低"的特征,省域单产以趋势增长为主,但年际间的波动较剧烈。[结论]1978~2014年,省域间玉米生产分异特征明显,建议制定差别化的玉米生产策略。
Maize plays an important role in China' s agricultural production and national economy. Clarifying the spatial and temporal characteristics of maize production in China is helpful to ensure the sustainable and stable supply of maize. Based on the empirical mode decomposition method,etc,this paper systemically analyzed the change trend of China's maize yield in 1978 ~ 2014 on the national and provincial scale. The results showed that:( 1) Over the past 37 years,maize yield increased by 160 million t,the proportion of corn production in total grain production also increased from 18. 36% in 1978 to 35. 53% in 2014; maize planting area increased by 17. 16 million hm~2,which had almost the same change trend as the total grain yield; the yield of maize per unit increased from 2802. 7 kg/hm~2 in 1978 to 5 809. 1 kg/hm~2 in 2014,the index fluctuation remained essentially between-5% ~ 5%,the overall fluctuation was greater than that of the total maize yield and the maize planting area.( 2) Over the past37 years,provincial maize yield increased highly in the north and low in the south,while the provincial maize planting area showed the characteristics of " high in the north and low in the south. The maize planting area further enlarged into the Northeast and the Huanghuai region. The provincial maize per unit yield showed the characteristics of low in the east and high in the west. The fluctuation range of maize per unit yield was greater than that of maize sown area and maize yield. The results can provide a reference basis to compile differentiation maize production strategy.
Maize plays an important role in China' s agricultural production and national economy. Clarifying the spatial and temporal characteristics of maize production in China is helpful to ensure the sustainable and stable supply of maize. Based on the empirical mode decomposition method,etc,this paper systemically analyzed the change trend of China's maize yield in 1978 ~ 2014 on the national and provincial scale. The results showed that:( 1) Over the past 37 years,maize yield increased by 160 million t,the proportion of corn production in total grain production also increased from 18. 36% in 1978 to 35. 53% in 2014; maize planting area increased by 17. 16 million hm~2,which had almost the same change trend as the total grain yield; the yield of maize per unit increased from 2802. 7 kg/hm~2 in 1978 to 5 809. 1 kg/hm~2 in 2014,the index fluctuation remained essentially between-5% ~ 5%,the overall fluctuation was greater than that of the total maize yield and the maize planting area.( 2) Over the past37 years,provincial maize yield increased highly in the north and low in the south,while the provincial maize planting area showed the characteristics of " high in the north and low in the south. The maize planting area further enlarged into the Northeast and the Huanghuai region. The provincial maize per unit yield showed the characteristics of low in the east and high in the west. The fluctuation range of maize per unit yield was greater than that of maize sown area and maize yield. The results can provide a reference basis to compile differentiation maize production strategy.
引文
[1]唐华俊,吴文斌,杨鹏,等.农作物空间格局遥感监测研究进展.中国农业科学,2010,43(14):2879~2888
[2]曹阳,杨婕,熊伟,等.1961~2010年潜在干旱对我国夏玉米产量影响的模拟分析.生态学报,2014,34(2):421~429
[3]郭庆海.中国玉米主产区的演变与发展.玉米科学,2010,18(1):139~145
[4]陈欢,王全忠,周宏.中国玉米生产布局的变迁分析.经济地理,2015,35(8):165~171
[5]徐志宇,宋振伟,邓艾兴,等.近30年我国主要粮食作物生产的驱动因素及空间格局变化研究.南京农业大学学报,2013,36(1):79~86
[6]李艳梅,陈秧分,刘玉,等.基于LMDI和EMD模型的中国玉米产量变化及其波动性研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(5):946~954
[7]刘会玉,张明阳,林振山.建国以来江苏省粮食产量变化的多时间尺度分析.资源科学,2004,26(1):107~112
[8]韩长赋.玉米论略.农业经济问题,2012,(6):4~8
[9]Boone L,Van L V,De M S,et al.Environmental life cycle assessment of grain maize production:An analysis of factors causing variability.Science of the Total Environment,2016,553:551~564
[10]刘忠,黄峰,李保国.基于两步剔除趋势法的中国粮食单产波动特征分析.资源科学,2015,37(6):1279~1286
[11]刘忠,黄峰,李保国.基于经验模态分解的中国粮食单产波动特征及影响因素.农业工程学报,2015,31(2):7~13
[12]周曙东,赵明正,陈康,等.世界主要粮食出口国的粮食生产潜力分析.农业经济问题,2015,(6):91~104
[13]赵俊晔,张峭.我国玉米自然灾害风险区识别研究.自然灾害学报,2013,22(1):29~37
[14]Lee H,Bogner C,Lee S,et al.Crop selection under price and yield fluctuation:Analysis of agro-economic time series from South Korea.Agricultural Systems,2016,148:1~11
[15]邵飞,陆迁.基于Nerlove模型的中国不同区域玉米供给反应研究.经济问题,2011(7):73~76
[16]李贺.黑龙江省玉米产业发展现状、问题与对策研究.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(9):53~56
[17]王琛,吴敬学.我国玉米产业生产技术效率与其影响因素研究——基于2001~2011年的省级面板数据.中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(4):23~32
[18]祝美群,白人朴.改革开放以来我国粮食生产波动的分析.中国农业大学学报,2000,5(4):6~10
[19]钟甫宁.稳定的政策和统一的市场对我国粮食安全的影响.中国农村经济,1995,(7):44~47
[20]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,et al.The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and nonstationary time series analysis.Proceedings of the Royal Society of land A,1998,454:903~955
[21]郭耸,顾国昌,李常有,等.利用EMD的自适应图像去噪.计算机工程与应用,2013,49(8):12~16
[22]Ivan M C,Richard G B.Empirical mode decomposition based time frequency attributes.Proc 69th SEG Meeting Houston,1999,73~91
[23]陈宝柱,吕琳,张洪华.一种提取数据包络的方法.船电技术,2011,(5):37~39
[24]卫荣,张江涛,张云博,等.河南省玉米生产循环波动分析.河南农业大学学报,2012,46(4):463~468
[25]纪瑞鹏,张玉书,姜丽霞,等.气候变化对东北地区玉米生产的影响.地理研究,2012,31(2):290~298
[26]王崇桃,李少昆.玉米生产限制因素评估与技术优先序.中国农业科学,2010,43(6):1136~1146
[27]王崇桃,李少昆,韩伯棠.玉米产量潜力实现的限制因素的参与式评估.中国软科学,2006,(7):53~59
(1)根据《农业部关于“镰刀弯”地区玉米结构调整的指导意见》,“镰刀弯”地区包括东北冷凉区、北方农牧交错区、西北风沙干旱区、太行山沿线区及西南石漠化区,是玉米结构调整的重点地区
[2]曹阳,杨婕,熊伟,等.1961~2010年潜在干旱对我国夏玉米产量影响的模拟分析.生态学报,2014,34(2):421~429
[3]郭庆海.中国玉米主产区的演变与发展.玉米科学,2010,18(1):139~145
[4]陈欢,王全忠,周宏.中国玉米生产布局的变迁分析.经济地理,2015,35(8):165~171
[5]徐志宇,宋振伟,邓艾兴,等.近30年我国主要粮食作物生产的驱动因素及空间格局变化研究.南京农业大学学报,2013,36(1):79~86
[6]李艳梅,陈秧分,刘玉,等.基于LMDI和EMD模型的中国玉米产量变化及其波动性研究.北京大学学报(自然科学版),2015,51(5):946~954
[7]刘会玉,张明阳,林振山.建国以来江苏省粮食产量变化的多时间尺度分析.资源科学,2004,26(1):107~112
[8]韩长赋.玉米论略.农业经济问题,2012,(6):4~8
[9]Boone L,Van L V,De M S,et al.Environmental life cycle assessment of grain maize production:An analysis of factors causing variability.Science of the Total Environment,2016,553:551~564
[10]刘忠,黄峰,李保国.基于两步剔除趋势法的中国粮食单产波动特征分析.资源科学,2015,37(6):1279~1286
[11]刘忠,黄峰,李保国.基于经验模态分解的中国粮食单产波动特征及影响因素.农业工程学报,2015,31(2):7~13
[12]周曙东,赵明正,陈康,等.世界主要粮食出口国的粮食生产潜力分析.农业经济问题,2015,(6):91~104
[13]赵俊晔,张峭.我国玉米自然灾害风险区识别研究.自然灾害学报,2013,22(1):29~37
[14]Lee H,Bogner C,Lee S,et al.Crop selection under price and yield fluctuation:Analysis of agro-economic time series from South Korea.Agricultural Systems,2016,148:1~11
[15]邵飞,陆迁.基于Nerlove模型的中国不同区域玉米供给反应研究.经济问题,2011(7):73~76
[16]李贺.黑龙江省玉米产业发展现状、问题与对策研究.中国农业资源与区划,2016,37(9):53~56
[17]王琛,吴敬学.我国玉米产业生产技术效率与其影响因素研究——基于2001~2011年的省级面板数据.中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(4):23~32
[18]祝美群,白人朴.改革开放以来我国粮食生产波动的分析.中国农业大学学报,2000,5(4):6~10
[19]钟甫宁.稳定的政策和统一的市场对我国粮食安全的影响.中国农村经济,1995,(7):44~47
[20]Huang N E,Shen Z,Long S R,et al.The empirical mode decomposition and the Hilbert spectrum for nonlinear and nonstationary time series analysis.Proceedings of the Royal Society of land A,1998,454:903~955
[21]郭耸,顾国昌,李常有,等.利用EMD的自适应图像去噪.计算机工程与应用,2013,49(8):12~16
[22]Ivan M C,Richard G B.Empirical mode decomposition based time frequency attributes.Proc 69th SEG Meeting Houston,1999,73~91
[23]陈宝柱,吕琳,张洪华.一种提取数据包络的方法.船电技术,2011,(5):37~39
[24]卫荣,张江涛,张云博,等.河南省玉米生产循环波动分析.河南农业大学学报,2012,46(4):463~468
[25]纪瑞鹏,张玉书,姜丽霞,等.气候变化对东北地区玉米生产的影响.地理研究,2012,31(2):290~298
[26]王崇桃,李少昆.玉米生产限制因素评估与技术优先序.中国农业科学,2010,43(6):1136~1146
[27]王崇桃,李少昆,韩伯棠.玉米产量潜力实现的限制因素的参与式评估.中国软科学,2006,(7):53~59
(1)根据《农业部关于“镰刀弯”地区玉米结构调整的指导意见》,“镰刀弯”地区包括东北冷凉区、北方农牧交错区、西北风沙干旱区、太行山沿线区及西南石漠化区,是玉米结构调整的重点地区