基于洪水演进数值模拟的洪灾生命损失计算方法研究
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摘要
通过建立的一二维衔接洪水演进数学模型,对永定河泛区的洪水演进进行数值模拟,得到泛区内水位、流量、淹没范围等信息。在此基础上对泛区的洪灾生命损失进行计算,并对洪灾生命损失计算的D&M公式进行了修正,从而能够更好地反映预警时间与洪水风险特征之间的关系。计算结果表明修正效果较好,修正后的公式更具适用性。
Through the establishing 1- D and 2- D linking flood routing numerical model,a numerical simulation is made on the flood routing of Yongding River Flood Plain,and then the data of water level,flow rate,inundated area,etc. are obtained. On the basis of this,the life loss from flood disaster within the flood plain is calculated,while D&M formula for life loss calculation is modified,thus the relationship between the time of early warning and the flood risk characteristics can be better reflected. The calculation result shows that the effect of the modification is better and the modified formula is more applicable as well.
Through the establishing 1- D and 2- D linking flood routing numerical model,a numerical simulation is made on the flood routing of Yongding River Flood Plain,and then the data of water level,flow rate,inundated area,etc. are obtained. On the basis of this,the life loss from flood disaster within the flood plain is calculated,while D&M formula for life loss calculation is modified,thus the relationship between the time of early warning and the flood risk characteristics can be better reflected. The calculation result shows that the effect of the modification is better and the modified formula is more applicable as well.
引文
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[13]赵安,王婷君.基于过程机理的洪灾生命损失评价模型框架初探[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(1):38-44.
[2]Michael L De Kay,Gary H Mc Clelland.Predicting loss of life in cases of dam failure and flash flood[J].Risk Analysis,1993,13(2):193-205.
[3]Graham W J.A procedure for estimating loss of life caused by dam failing[R].DSO-99-06(USBR),1999.
[4]Reiter P.Loss of life caused by dam failure:the RESCDAM LOL method and its application to Kyrkosjarvi dam in Seinajoki[R].RESCDAM project,Final report of PR Water Consulting Ltd,Helsinki,2001.
[5]周克发,李雷,盛金保.我国溃坝生命损失评价模型初步研究[J].安全与环境学报,2007,7(3):145-149.
[6]胡德秀,周孝德,杨杰.基于不确定性分析的溃坝失事生命损失风险概率估算方法[J].西安理工大学学报,2008,24(2):133-138.
[7]付意成,魏传江,王启猛,等.区域洪灾风险评价体系研究[J].灾害学,2009,24(3):27-32.
[8]吴欢强,傅琼华,董建良,等.我国溃坝生命损失估算方法探讨[J].珠江现代建设,2010(3):14-18.
[9]王晓航,盛金保,张行南,等.基于GIS技术的溃坝生命损失预警综合评价模型研究[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(4):72-78.
[10]殷丹.浑河沈阳城市段洪灾损失评估研究[J].水利科技与经济,2012,18(12):58-60.
[11]黄家宝,郑泳,徐林春.基于GIS的乐昌峡水利枢纽工程防洪调度洪灾损失评估研究[J].广州水利水电,2012(1):25-28.
[12]黄凌,孙月峰,王晓玲.基于人工神经网络的水库溃坝生命损失估算模型及应用[J].中国农村水利水电,2012(1):137-140.
[13]赵安,王婷君.基于过程机理的洪灾生命损失评价模型框架初探[J].自然灾害学报,2013,22(1):38-44.