基于随机径流历时曲线的水库生态调度研究
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摘要
生态流量过程线使得水库生态调度考虑了径流的年内变化,然而径流的年际变化也是天然径流的重要特征。本文以引汉济渭工程的水库调度为例,利用标准化降水指数将长系列径流数据划分为典型年系列,应用随机径流历时曲线计算了相应典型年系列的生态流量,建立了包含生态流量约束的发电量最大优化调度模型。调度后的多年平均发电量在最小生态流量下为5.14亿k W·h,在适宜生态流量下为5.05亿k W·h,和工程规划的多年平均发电量5.03亿k W·h基本一致。划分典型年径流系列实施水库调度可以反映径流的年际变化。结果显示,在不同典型年基本可满足生态流量的需求,在特定年份来水特枯的情况下不满足生态需求,需要重点关注。
Ecological flow is a key factor in reservoir ecological operation to take into account the annual variations of runoff, but its inter-annual variations are also important. This paper presents an optimal operation model for maximizing the power generating capacity of reservoirs under the constraint of ecological flow in a case study of the Han to Wei River water diversion project. In this model, the standardized precipitation index is used to divide long runoff series into typical series of different levels, and stochastic flow duration curves are used for estimation of the ecological flows of the typical series. Calculations reveal that after years of reservoir operation in the schemes optimized using the model, the average generating capacity is 514 and 505 million k W·h under the minimum and appropriate ecological flows, respectively, which agrees with the value of 503 million k W·h in the project planning. This study shows that distinguishing different typical annual runoff series in optimizing reservoir operation can reflect the effects of inter-annual variations in the river runoffs so that the optimal operation scheme for every typical year can basically meet the ecological flow demand. However, in the years of extremely low flows, it does not meet the ecological demands, which needs special attention.
Ecological flow is a key factor in reservoir ecological operation to take into account the annual variations of runoff, but its inter-annual variations are also important. This paper presents an optimal operation model for maximizing the power generating capacity of reservoirs under the constraint of ecological flow in a case study of the Han to Wei River water diversion project. In this model, the standardized precipitation index is used to divide long runoff series into typical series of different levels, and stochastic flow duration curves are used for estimation of the ecological flows of the typical series. Calculations reveal that after years of reservoir operation in the schemes optimized using the model, the average generating capacity is 514 and 505 million k W·h under the minimum and appropriate ecological flows, respectively, which agrees with the value of 503 million k W·h in the project planning. This study shows that distinguishing different typical annual runoff series in optimizing reservoir operation can reflect the effects of inter-annual variations in the river runoffs so that the optimal operation scheme for every typical year can basically meet the ecological flow demand. However, in the years of extremely low flows, it does not meet the ecological demands, which needs special attention.
引文
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[3]黄强,赵梦龙,李瑛.水库生态调度研究新进展[J].水力发电学报,2017,36(3):1-11.HUANG Qiang,ZHAO Menglong,LI Ying.Advancements in studies on reservoir ecological operation[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2017,36(3):1-11.(in Chinese)
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[10]康玲,黄云燕,杨正祥,等.水库生态调度模型及其应用[J].水利学报,2010,41(2):134-141.KANG Ling,HUANG Yunyan,YANG Zhengxiang,et al.Reservoir ecological operation model and its application[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2010,41(2):134-141.(in Chinese)
[11]Higgins A J,Bryan B A,Overton I C,et al.Integrated modelling of cost-effective siting and operation of flow-control infrastructure for river ecosystem conservation[J].Water Resources Research,2011,47(5):1-14.
[12]Hayes M J,Svoboda M D,Wilhite D A,et al.Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1999,80(3):429-438.
[13]Svoboda M,Lecomte D,Hayes M,et al.The drought monitor[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1181-1190.
[14]洪兴骏,郭生练,周研来.标准化降水指数SPI分布函数的适用性研究[J].水资源研究,2013,2(1):33-41.HONG Xingjun,GUO Shenglian,ZHOU Yanlai.Standardized precipitation index distribution function SPI[J].Journal of Water Resources Research,2013,2(1):33-41.(in Chinese)
[15]King J,Louw D.Instream flow assessments for regulated rivers in South Africa using the Building Block Methodology[J].Aquatic Ecosystem Health&Management,1998,1(2):109-124.
[16]Lytle D A,Poff N L.Adaptation to natural flow regimes[J].Trends in Ecology&Evolution,2004,19(2):94-100.
[17]王为民,金玉广.流量历时曲线法在年径流计算中的应用[J].吉林水利,1994(7):34-36.WANG Weimin,JIN Yuguang.Application of flow duration curve method in annual runoff calculation[J].Jilin Water,1994(7):34-36.(in Chinese)
[18]Sugiyama H,Vudhivanich V,Whitaker A C,et al.Stochastic flow duration curves for evaluation of flow regimes in rivers[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2003,39(1):47-58.
[19]刘静,郑红星,戴向前.随机流量历时曲线及其在生态流量计算中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2011,9(3):118-123.LIU Jing,ZHENG Hongxing,DAI Xiangqian.The random flow duration curve and its application in the calculation of ecological flow[J].South to North Water Diversion and Sater Conservancy Science and Technology,2011,9(3):118-123.(in Chinese)
[20]Yu B,Xu L.Review of ecological compensation in hydropower development[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,55:729-738.
[21]骆文广,杨国录,宋云浩,等.再议水库生态环境调度[J].水科学进展,2016,27(2):317-326.LUO Wenguang,YANG Guolu,SONG Yunhao,et al.The reservoir ecological operation[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(2):317-326.(in Chinese)
[22]明波,黄强,王义民,等.基于改进布谷鸟算法的梯级水库优化调度研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(3):341-349.MING Bo,HUANG Qiang,WANG Yimin,et al.Study on optimal operation of cascade reservoirs based on improved cuckoo algorithm[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(3):341-349.(in Chinese)
[23]Walton S,Hassan O,Morgan K,et al.Modified cuckoo search:A new gradient free optimisation algorithm[J].Chaos Solitons&Fractals,2011,44(9):710-718.
[24]Tennant D L.Instream Flow regimens for fish,wildlife,recreation and related environmental resources[J].Fisheries,1976,1(4):6-10.
[25]钟华平,刘恒,耿雷华,等.河道内生态需水估算方法及其评述[J].水科学进展,2006,17(3):430-434.ZHONG Huaping,LIU Heng,GENG Leihua,et al.Review of assessment methods for instream ecological flow requirements[J].Advances in Water Science,2006,17(3):430-434.(in Chinese)
[2]Navarro J E,Mccauley D J,Blystra A R.Instream flow incremental methodology(IFIM)for modelling fish habitat[J].Journal of Water Management Modeling,1994,22(5):230-242.
[3]黄强,赵梦龙,李瑛.水库生态调度研究新进展[J].水力发电学报,2017,36(3):1-11.HUANG Qiang,ZHAO Menglong,LI Ying.Advancements in studies on reservoir ecological operation[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2017,36(3):1-11.(in Chinese)
[4]张飒,班璇,黄强,等.基于变化范围法的汉江中游水文情势变化规律分析[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(7):34-43.ZHANG Sa,BAN Xuan,HUANG Qiang,et al.Analysis of hydrological regime changes in the midstream Han River using range of variability approach[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2016,35(7):34-43.(in Chinese)
[5]郭文献,王艳芳,徐建新.河流生境研究综述[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2015,36(3):21-23.GUO Wenxian,WANG Yanfang,XU Jianxin.Research overview on river habitat[J].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power(Natural Science Edition),2015,36(3):21-23.(in Chinese)
[6]胡和平,刘登峰,田富强,等.基于生态流量过程线的水库生态调度方法研究[J].水科学进展,2008,19(3):325-332.HU Heping,LIU Dengfeng,TIAN Fu Qiang,et al.Amethod of reservoir ecological operation based on ecological flow regime[J].Advances in Water Science,2008,19(3):325-332.(in Chinese)
[7]Suen J P,Eheart J W.Reservoir management to balance ecosystem and human needs:Incorporating the paradigm of the ecological flow regime[J].Water Resources Research,2006,42(3):178-196.
[8]Vogel R M,Sieber J,Archfield S A,et al.Relations among storage,yield,and instream flow[J].Water Resources Research,2007,43(5):909-918.
[9]陈端,陈求稳,陈进.考虑生态流量的水库优化调度模型研究进展[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(5):248-256.CHEN Duan,CHEN Jian Ping,CHEN Jin.Review on optimization models of reservoir operation with consideration of ecological flow[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2011,30(5):248-256.(in Chinese)
[10]康玲,黄云燕,杨正祥,等.水库生态调度模型及其应用[J].水利学报,2010,41(2):134-141.KANG Ling,HUANG Yunyan,YANG Zhengxiang,et al.Reservoir ecological operation model and its application[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2010,41(2):134-141.(in Chinese)
[11]Higgins A J,Bryan B A,Overton I C,et al.Integrated modelling of cost-effective siting and operation of flow-control infrastructure for river ecosystem conservation[J].Water Resources Research,2011,47(5):1-14.
[12]Hayes M J,Svoboda M D,Wilhite D A,et al.Monitoring the 1996 drought using the standardized precipitation index[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,1999,80(3):429-438.
[13]Svoboda M,Lecomte D,Hayes M,et al.The drought monitor[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2002,83(8):1181-1190.
[14]洪兴骏,郭生练,周研来.标准化降水指数SPI分布函数的适用性研究[J].水资源研究,2013,2(1):33-41.HONG Xingjun,GUO Shenglian,ZHOU Yanlai.Standardized precipitation index distribution function SPI[J].Journal of Water Resources Research,2013,2(1):33-41.(in Chinese)
[15]King J,Louw D.Instream flow assessments for regulated rivers in South Africa using the Building Block Methodology[J].Aquatic Ecosystem Health&Management,1998,1(2):109-124.
[16]Lytle D A,Poff N L.Adaptation to natural flow regimes[J].Trends in Ecology&Evolution,2004,19(2):94-100.
[17]王为民,金玉广.流量历时曲线法在年径流计算中的应用[J].吉林水利,1994(7):34-36.WANG Weimin,JIN Yuguang.Application of flow duration curve method in annual runoff calculation[J].Jilin Water,1994(7):34-36.(in Chinese)
[18]Sugiyama H,Vudhivanich V,Whitaker A C,et al.Stochastic flow duration curves for evaluation of flow regimes in rivers[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,2003,39(1):47-58.
[19]刘静,郑红星,戴向前.随机流量历时曲线及其在生态流量计算中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2011,9(3):118-123.LIU Jing,ZHENG Hongxing,DAI Xiangqian.The random flow duration curve and its application in the calculation of ecological flow[J].South to North Water Diversion and Sater Conservancy Science and Technology,2011,9(3):118-123.(in Chinese)
[20]Yu B,Xu L.Review of ecological compensation in hydropower development[J].Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews,2016,55:729-738.
[21]骆文广,杨国录,宋云浩,等.再议水库生态环境调度[J].水科学进展,2016,27(2):317-326.LUO Wenguang,YANG Guolu,SONG Yunhao,et al.The reservoir ecological operation[J].Advances in Water Science,2016,27(2):317-326.(in Chinese)
[22]明波,黄强,王义民,等.基于改进布谷鸟算法的梯级水库优化调度研究[J].水利学报,2015,46(3):341-349.MING Bo,HUANG Qiang,WANG Yimin,et al.Study on optimal operation of cascade reservoirs based on improved cuckoo algorithm[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2015,46(3):341-349.(in Chinese)
[23]Walton S,Hassan O,Morgan K,et al.Modified cuckoo search:A new gradient free optimisation algorithm[J].Chaos Solitons&Fractals,2011,44(9):710-718.
[24]Tennant D L.Instream Flow regimens for fish,wildlife,recreation and related environmental resources[J].Fisheries,1976,1(4):6-10.
[25]钟华平,刘恒,耿雷华,等.河道内生态需水估算方法及其评述[J].水科学进展,2006,17(3):430-434.ZHONG Huaping,LIU Heng,GENG Leihua,et al.Review of assessment methods for instream ecological flow requirements[J].Advances in Water Science,2006,17(3):430-434.(in Chinese)