2℃/1.5℃温控目标下生物质能结合碳捕集与封存技术(BECCS)
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摘要
工业化以来,全球气候变暖对自然和人类系统的影响日益显著。《巴黎协定》提出将全球升温限制在2℃以内,并努力将全球升温控制在1.5℃内,以避免气候变化造成更严重的影响。生物质能碳捕集与封存技术是未来有望将全球升温稳定在低水平的关键技术。梳理了实现温升目标2℃/1.5℃下BECCS可能贡献的最新研究进展,对BECCS发展的四个重要不确定因素即资源不确定性、技术不确定性、经济影响不确定性以及社会和生态影响不确定性进行了分析。在此基础上初步分析了BECCS在未来电力能源系统中的可能作用,并对中国研究和发展BECCS提出了政策建议。
Ever since modern industrialization, the impact of global warming on nature and human systems has become increasingly significant. In the face of growing CO2 concentrations, the Paris Agreement sets out a global action plan to limit global warming to well below 2 ℃ and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ℃ to prevent dangerous climate change. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage(BECCS) is expected to play a critical role in stabilizing global warming at a low level in the future. In the paper, the review of potential contribution of BECCS to the global warming target of 2 ℃/1.5 ℃ is provided. Four major uncertainties in the development of BECCS are analyzed, namely, resource uncertainty, technical uncertainty, economic impact uncertainty and social & ecological impact uncertainty. The potential role of BECCS in future power energy systems is preliminarily analyzed. Finally, the policy recommendation on the research and demonstration of BECCS are provided.
Ever since modern industrialization, the impact of global warming on nature and human systems has become increasingly significant. In the face of growing CO2 concentrations, the Paris Agreement sets out a global action plan to limit global warming to well below 2 ℃ and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 ℃ to prevent dangerous climate change. Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage(BECCS) is expected to play a critical role in stabilizing global warming at a low level in the future. In the paper, the review of potential contribution of BECCS to the global warming target of 2 ℃/1.5 ℃ is provided. Four major uncertainties in the development of BECCS are analyzed, namely, resource uncertainty, technical uncertainty, economic impact uncertainty and social & ecological impact uncertainty. The potential role of BECCS in future power energy systems is preliminarily analyzed. Finally, the policy recommendation on the research and demonstration of BECCS are provided.
引文
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