青藏高原“一江两河”地区农牧民家庭生计脆弱性评估
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摘要
家庭生计脆弱性评估有利于深入理解脆弱人群的特征,为政府制定气候变化适应策略和农牧民脱贫提供科学依据。本文利用西藏"一江两河"地区188户调研数据,基于可持续生计框架,在"风险-生计资产-适应能力"维度上构建农牧民家庭生计脆弱性指标体系,采用K-均值聚类方法对家庭分类并比较其生计脆弱性差异。结果表明:(1)高脆弱性家庭占比43. 09%,其整体表现为风险最高,生计资产和适应能力最低;(2)与低脆弱性家庭相比,高脆弱性家庭的特点主要是自然资源依赖度更高、受极端气象灾害影响较大、生计资产缺乏、生计多样化程度不高、资金补贴不足等。本文从积极应对自然灾害、提高农牧民教育水平和促进生计多样化等方面提出政策建议。
Although numerous studies concerned about the livelihood vulnerability to climate change at district or community level,few researches on how to precisely identify the vulnerable population have been done. A household-level assessment of livelihood vulnerability contributes to a deeper understanding of the characteristics of vulnerable population,enlightening the policymaker to develop climate change adaptation strategies and poverty alleviation policies for farmers and herders. In this study,188 households were investigated along the Yarlung Zangbo River,the Nyangqu River and the Lhasa River Region( the YNL river region) in the Tibetan Plateau.Followed by a framework of sustainable livelihood analysis and an approach of evaluation on "risk-livelihood assetadaptive capacity",a household-level livelihood vulnerability indicator system was introduced and accordingly the sampled households were classified into two categories( i. e.,the highly and the lowly vulnerable households)using K-means clustering. The results showed that:( 1) The highly vulnerable households accounted for 43. 09% of all involved households,which featured in a higher level of risk,but a lower level of livelihood assets and adaptive capacity as compared with those of the lowly vulnerable households.( 2) Compared to the lowly vulnerable households,the distinguishing feature of the highly vulnerable households were those,such as highly subjected to natural resources,more susceptible to extreme climate disasters,poor livelihood diversification,and insufficient government subsidies. The study suggests that the government should actively take actions to control natural disasters,to improve educational level and to promote livelihood diversification,which would help farmers and herders improve their adaptive capacity and reduce livelihood vulnerability.
Although numerous studies concerned about the livelihood vulnerability to climate change at district or community level,few researches on how to precisely identify the vulnerable population have been done. A household-level assessment of livelihood vulnerability contributes to a deeper understanding of the characteristics of vulnerable population,enlightening the policymaker to develop climate change adaptation strategies and poverty alleviation policies for farmers and herders. In this study,188 households were investigated along the Yarlung Zangbo River,the Nyangqu River and the Lhasa River Region( the YNL river region) in the Tibetan Plateau.Followed by a framework of sustainable livelihood analysis and an approach of evaluation on "risk-livelihood assetadaptive capacity",a household-level livelihood vulnerability indicator system was introduced and accordingly the sampled households were classified into two categories( i. e.,the highly and the lowly vulnerable households)using K-means clustering. The results showed that:( 1) The highly vulnerable households accounted for 43. 09% of all involved households,which featured in a higher level of risk,but a lower level of livelihood assets and adaptive capacity as compared with those of the lowly vulnerable households.( 2) Compared to the lowly vulnerable households,the distinguishing feature of the highly vulnerable households were those,such as highly subjected to natural resources,more susceptible to extreme climate disasters,poor livelihood diversification,and insufficient government subsidies. The study suggests that the government should actively take actions to control natural disasters,to improve educational level and to promote livelihood diversification,which would help farmers and herders improve their adaptive capacity and reduce livelihood vulnerability.
引文
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(1)尽管家庭(family)和户(household)在一些学科中有差异,但本文将家庭与户视为同一单元。(弗兰克·艾利思,农民经济学[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2006,P15-16)。
[2]崔红志.乡村振兴与精准脱贫的进展、问题与实施路径---“乡村振兴战略与精准脱贫研讨会暨第十四届全国社科农经协作网络大会”会议综述[J].中国农村经济,2018(9):136-144[CUI Hongzhi.Progress,problems,and implementation paths of Rural Revitalization and Precision Poverty Alleviation:a summary of the conference on“Rural Revitalization and Precision Poverty Alleviation seminar and the 14th national social science and economic cooperation network conference”[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2018(9):136-144]
[3]张镱锂,李炳元,郑度.论青藏高原范围与面积[J].地理研究,2002,21(1):1-8[ZHANG Yili,LI Bingyuan,ZHENG Du.Adiscussion on the boundary and area of the Tibetan Plateau in China[J].Geographical Research,2002,21(1):1-8]
[4]YAO T,THOMPSOM L G,MOSBRUGGER V,et al.Third Pole Environment(TPE)[J].Environmental Development,2012,3(1):52-64
[5]GAO Y,LI X,LEUNG L R,et al.Aridity changes in the Tibetan Plateau in a warming climate[J].Environmental Research Letters,2015,10(3):34013-34024
[6]LIU F,MAO X,ZHANG Y,et al.Risk analysis of snow disaster in the pastoral areas of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2014,24(3):411-426
[7]高懋芳,邱建军.青藏高原主要自然灾害特点及分布规律研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2011,25(8):101-106[GAOMaofang,QIU Jianjun.Characteristics and distribution law of major natural disasters in Tibetan Plateau[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2011,25(8):101-106]
[8]WEI Y,WANG S,FANG Y,et al.Integrated assessment on the vulnerability of animal husbandry to snow disasters under climate change in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau[J].Global and Planetary Change,2017,157:139-152
[9]FANG Y,ZHAO C,DING Y,et al.Impacts of snow disaster on meat production and adaptation:an empirical analysis in the yellow river source region[J].Sustainability Science,2016,11(2):249-260
[10]韩峥.脆弱性与农村贫困[J].农业经济问题,2004(10):8-12[HAN Zheng.Fragility and rural poverty[J].Issues in Agricultural Economy,2004(10):8-12]
[11]ADGER W N.Vulnerability[J].Global Environmental Change,2006,16(3):268-281
[12]IPCC.Climate change 2007:impacts,adaptation and vulnerability[M].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,2007:3-26
[13]MOSS R H,BRENKERT A L,MALONE E L.Vulnerability to climate change:a quantitative approach[J].Prepared for the USDepartment of Energy,2001:155-167
[14]VINCENT K.Creating an index of social vulnerability to climate change for Africa[G]//Tyndall Centre Working Papers.Norwich:Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,2004:No.56
[15]BROOKS N,ADGER W N,KELLY P M.The determinants of vulnerability and adaptive capacity at the national level and the implications for adaptation[J].Global Environmental Change,2005,15(2):151-163
[16]CUTTER S L,BORUFF B J,SHIRLEY W L.Social vulnerability to environmental hazards[J].Social Science Quarterly,2003,84(2):242-261
[17]GBETIBOUO G A,RINGLER C,HASSAN R.Vulnerability of the South African farming sector to climate change and variability:an indicator approach[J].Natural Resources Forum,2010,34(3):175-187
[18]GE Y,DOU W,GU Z,et al.Assessment of social vulnerability to natural hazards in the Yangtze River Delta,China[J].Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment,2013,27(8):1899-1908
[19]HAHN M B,RIEDERER A M,FOSTER S O.The Livelihood Vulnerability Index:a pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change-a case study in Mozambique[J].Global Environmental Change,2009,19(1):74-88
[20]KUMAR P,GENELETTI D,NAGENDRA H.Spatial assessment of climate change vulnerability at city scale:a study in Bangalore,India[J].Land Use Policy,2016,58:514-532
[21]PANDEY R,JHA S K,ALATALO J M,et al.Sustainable livelihood framework-based indicators for assessing climate change vulnerability and adaptation for Himalayan communities[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,79:338-346
[22]MONIRUL ALAM G M,ALAM K,MUSHTAQ S,et al.Vulnerability to climatic change in riparian char and river-bank households in Bangladesh:implication for policy,livelihoods and social development[J].Ecological Indicators,2017,72:23-32
[23]谭淑豪,谭文列婧,励汀郁,等.气候变化压力下牧民的社会脆弱性分析---基于内蒙古锡林郭勒盟4个牧业旗的调查[J].中国农村经济,2016(7):67-80[TAN Shuhao,TANWenliejing,LI Tingyu,et al.Herders'social vulnerability to climate change:based on the investigation of four livestock husbandry banner in Xilinguole League,Inner Mongolia[J].Chinese Rural Economy,2016(7):67-80]
[24]RAJESH S,JAIN S,SHARMA P.Inherent vulnerability assessment of rural households based on socio-economic indicators using categorical principal component analysis:a case study of Kimsar region,Uttarakhand[J].Ecological Indicators,2018,85:93-104
[25]GHIMIRE Y N,SHIVAKOTI G P,PERRET S R.Householdlevel vulnerability to drought in hill agriculture of Nepal:implications for adaptation planning[J].International Journal of Sustainable Development and World Ecology,2010,17(3):225-230
[26]FANG Y,ZHAO C,RASUL G,et al.Rural household vulnerability and strategies for improvement:an empirical analysis based on time series[J].Habitat International,2016,53:254-264
[27]喻鸥,阎建忠,张镱锂.区域气候变化脆弱性综合评估研究进展[J].地理科学进展,2011,30(1):27-34[YU Ou,YANJianzhong,ZHANG Yili.Reviews on regional climate change vulnerability assessment[J].Progress in Geography,2011,30(1):27-34]
[28]WANG Y,WANG J,LI S,et al.Vulnerability of the Tibetan Pastoral Systems to climate and global change[J].Ecology and Society,2014,19(4):8
[29]彭开丽,张安录.土地利用变化中农户脆弱性研究---一个理论分析框架及基于中国中部五省的调研实证[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(11):1798-1810[PENG Kaili,ZHANG Anlu.Farmers’vulnerability in farmland conversion:analytical framework and empirical research on five provinces in central China[J].Journal of Nature Resources,2015,30(11):1798-1810]
[30]CELIDONI M.Vulnerability to poverty:an empirical comparison of alternative measures[J].Applied Economics,2013,45(12):1493-1506
[31]MUTABAZI K D,SIEBER S,MAEDA C,et al.Assessing the determinants of poverty and vulnerability of smallholder farmers in a changing climate:the case of Morogoro region,Tanzania[J].Regional Environmental Change,2015,15(7):1243-1258
[32]WARD P S.Transient poverty,poverty dynamics,and vulnerability to poverty:an empirical analysis using a balanced panel from rural China[J].World Development,2016,78:541-553
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(1)尽管家庭(family)和户(household)在一些学科中有差异,但本文将家庭与户视为同一单元。(弗兰克·艾利思,农民经济学[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2006,P15-16)。