干旱影响生计脆弱性中的中介和调节效应
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摘要
[目的]气候变化下跨尺度变量对生计脆弱性的影响多数为定性研究,很少进行实证研究,文章通过实证分析探索跨尺度变量在干旱影响生计脆弱性中的作用。[方法]基于黄土高原218个农户调查数据,采用线性回归和层次回归分析跨尺度变量在干旱影响生计脆弱性中的中介和调节效应。[结果]干旱对农户生计脆弱性有显著影响。在干旱影响生计脆弱性的过程中,个人尺度的"户主年龄、感知的气温最大值、降雨量变化、干旱程度变化和灾后信息渠道"与农户尺度的"批发市场距离和集市距离"起到了调节作用;农户尺度的"三代直系亲属的户数和生产机械指数"起到了中介作用;而村庄尺度的"工程措施",既没起到中介作用,也没起到调节作用。[结论]用中介和调节效应反映了跨尺度变量的交互作用,在跨尺度效应的实证研究方面提供了科学的方法,弥补了现有研究的空白,这为制定减少农户生计脆弱性的政策提供了科学有效的依据。
The impact of cross-scale variables on livelihood vulnerability under climate change is mostly qualitative study,and empirical studies are rarely conducted. Therefore,the peper used empirical analysis to explore the role of cross-scale variables in the impact of drought on livelihood vulnerability. Based on the survey data of 218 households in the Loess Plateau,the mediating and moderating effects of cross-scale variables in the impact of drought on livelihood vulnerability were investigated by the linear regression and hierarchical regression analysis. The results showed that drought had a significant impact on the livelihood vulnerability of rural households. In the process of drought impacting on livelihood vulnerability,the " age of household head,perceived maximum temperature,rainfall changes,drought degree changes,and post-disaster information channels" at the scale of persons and the "wholesale markets' distance and village fairs' distance" at the scale of households played a moderating role; the "three generations of immediate family members' number of households and production machinery index" at the scale of the households played a mediating role; and the " engineering measures" had neither played a moderating role nor a mediating role at the scale of village. This paper used mediating and moderating effects to reflect the interaction of cross-scale variables,provided scientific methods in the empirical research of cross-scale effects,and made up for the gaps in existing research. This provides a scientific and effective basis for formulating policies to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of rural households.
The impact of cross-scale variables on livelihood vulnerability under climate change is mostly qualitative study,and empirical studies are rarely conducted. Therefore,the peper used empirical analysis to explore the role of cross-scale variables in the impact of drought on livelihood vulnerability. Based on the survey data of 218 households in the Loess Plateau,the mediating and moderating effects of cross-scale variables in the impact of drought on livelihood vulnerability were investigated by the linear regression and hierarchical regression analysis. The results showed that drought had a significant impact on the livelihood vulnerability of rural households. In the process of drought impacting on livelihood vulnerability,the " age of household head,perceived maximum temperature,rainfall changes,drought degree changes,and post-disaster information channels" at the scale of persons and the "wholesale markets' distance and village fairs' distance" at the scale of households played a moderating role; the "three generations of immediate family members' number of households and production machinery index" at the scale of the households played a mediating role; and the " engineering measures" had neither played a moderating role nor a mediating role at the scale of village. This paper used mediating and moderating effects to reflect the interaction of cross-scale variables,provided scientific methods in the empirical research of cross-scale effects,and made up for the gaps in existing research. This provides a scientific and effective basis for formulating policies to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of rural households.
引文
[1]史俊宏.干旱风险冲击下牧户适应性生计策略及其影响因素.中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(7):89-95.
[2]Keshavarz M,Maleksaeidi H,Karami E.Livelihood vulnerability to drought:A case of rural Iran.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2016,21.
[3]冯晓龙.基于分层模型的苹果种植农户气象灾害适应性行为研究.资源科学,2015,37(12):2491-2500.
[4]付瑶.青藏高原藏族牧民的气候变化适应性.2012.
[5]Adger W N,Arnell N W,Tompkins E L.Adapting to climate change:perspectives across scales.Global Environmental Change,2005,15(2):0-76.
[6]Lyle G.Understanding the nested,multi-scale,spatial and hierarchical nature of future climate change adaptation decision making in agricultural regions:A narrative literature review.Journal of Rural Studies,2015,37:38-49.
[7]Huai J.Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change:A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones.Scientific Reports,2016,6:33744.
[8]Khayyati M,Aazami M.Drought impact assessment on rural livelihood systems in Iran.Ecological Indicators,2016,69:850-858.
[9]Nieves García de Frutos,JoséManuel Ortega Egea.Environmental Information Influences on Pro-environmental Behaviour Aimed at Fighting Climate Change:Main and Moderating Effects.2011.
[10]胡江霞,文传浩.社会网络、风险识别能力与农村移民可持续生计---基于代际差异视角.技术经济,2017,36(4):110-116.
[11]Reed M S,Podesta G,Fazey I,et al.combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.Ecological Economics,2013,94(Complete):66-77.
[12]杨明,温忠麟,陈宇帅.职业胜任力在工作要求-资源模型中的调节和中介作用.心理科学,2017(4):822-829.
[13]Monirul Alam G M,Alam K,Mushtaq S,et al.Vulnerability to climatic change in riparian char and river-bank households in Bangladesh:Implication for policy,livelihoods and social development.Ecological Indicators,2017,72:23-32.
[14]Hahn M B,Riederer A M,Foster S O.The Livelihood Vulnerability Index:A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change-A case study in Mozambique.Global Environmental Change,2009,19(1):0-88.
[15]R M Baron,D A Kenny.The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research:conceptual,strategic,and statistical considerations.Journal of Personality&Social Psychology,1986,51(6):1173-1182.
[16]Huai J.Role of Livelihood Capital in Reducing Climatic Vulnerability:Insights of Australian Wheat from 1990-2010.Plos One,2016,11(3):e0152277.
[17]胡贤辉.农业劳动力年龄对农户耕地利用效率的影响---来自不同经济发展水平地区的实证.资源科学,2011,33(9):1691-1698.
[18]张钦,赵雪雁,雒丽,等.高寒生态脆弱区气候变化对农户生计的脆弱性影响评价---以甘南高原为例.生态学杂志,2016,35(3):781-790.
[19]谈存峰.技术进步、技术效率与农业生产率增长---基于甘肃省的实证分析.中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(6):93-98.
[20]姚晓红,许彦平,秘晓东.气候变化对天水苹果生长的影响及对策研究.干旱地区农业研究,2006,24(4):129-133.
[21]申顺吏,杨俊梅,王星星.影响山西苹果产量的气候因子分析及产量预测.中国气象学会年会s14提升气象科技创新能力,保障农业丰产增效.2016.
[22]段晓凤,张磊,金飞,等.气象因子对苹果产量、品质的影响研究进展.中国农学通报,2014,30(7):33-37.
[23]李星敏,柏秦凤,朱琳.气候变化对陕西苹果生长适宜性影响.应用气象学报,2011,22(2):241-248.
[24]韩林.环境变化对民勤绿洲边缘区农村家庭生计的影响研究.兰州大学,2013.
[25]谷雨,王青.新时期不同类型农户生计脆弱性研究---以重庆市合川区为例.湖北农业科学,2013,52(7):1715-1720.
[26]Paul C J,Weinthal E S,Bellemare M F,et al.Social capital,trust,and adaptation to climate change:Evidence from rural Ethiopia.Global Environmental Change,2016,36:124-138.
[27]李慧玲,马海霞,杨睿.棉花主产区棉农生计资本对生计策略的影响分析---基于新疆玛纳斯县和阿瓦提县的调查数据.干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(5):57-63.
[2]Keshavarz M,Maleksaeidi H,Karami E.Livelihood vulnerability to drought:A case of rural Iran.International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction,2016,21.
[3]冯晓龙.基于分层模型的苹果种植农户气象灾害适应性行为研究.资源科学,2015,37(12):2491-2500.
[4]付瑶.青藏高原藏族牧民的气候变化适应性.2012.
[5]Adger W N,Arnell N W,Tompkins E L.Adapting to climate change:perspectives across scales.Global Environmental Change,2005,15(2):0-76.
[6]Lyle G.Understanding the nested,multi-scale,spatial and hierarchical nature of future climate change adaptation decision making in agricultural regions:A narrative literature review.Journal of Rural Studies,2015,37:38-49.
[7]Huai J.Integration and Typologies of Vulnerability to Climate Change:A Case Study from Australian Wheat Sheep Zones.Scientific Reports,2016,6:33744.
[8]Khayyati M,Aazami M.Drought impact assessment on rural livelihood systems in Iran.Ecological Indicators,2016,69:850-858.
[9]Nieves García de Frutos,JoséManuel Ortega Egea.Environmental Information Influences on Pro-environmental Behaviour Aimed at Fighting Climate Change:Main and Moderating Effects.2011.
[10]胡江霞,文传浩.社会网络、风险识别能力与农村移民可持续生计---基于代际差异视角.技术经济,2017,36(4):110-116.
[11]Reed M S,Podesta G,Fazey I,et al.combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.Ecological Economics,2013,94(Complete):66-77.
[12]杨明,温忠麟,陈宇帅.职业胜任力在工作要求-资源模型中的调节和中介作用.心理科学,2017(4):822-829.
[13]Monirul Alam G M,Alam K,Mushtaq S,et al.Vulnerability to climatic change in riparian char and river-bank households in Bangladesh:Implication for policy,livelihoods and social development.Ecological Indicators,2017,72:23-32.
[14]Hahn M B,Riederer A M,Foster S O.The Livelihood Vulnerability Index:A pragmatic approach to assessing risks from climate variability and change-A case study in Mozambique.Global Environmental Change,2009,19(1):0-88.
[15]R M Baron,D A Kenny.The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research:conceptual,strategic,and statistical considerations.Journal of Personality&Social Psychology,1986,51(6):1173-1182.
[16]Huai J.Role of Livelihood Capital in Reducing Climatic Vulnerability:Insights of Australian Wheat from 1990-2010.Plos One,2016,11(3):e0152277.
[17]胡贤辉.农业劳动力年龄对农户耕地利用效率的影响---来自不同经济发展水平地区的实证.资源科学,2011,33(9):1691-1698.
[18]张钦,赵雪雁,雒丽,等.高寒生态脆弱区气候变化对农户生计的脆弱性影响评价---以甘南高原为例.生态学杂志,2016,35(3):781-790.
[19]谈存峰.技术进步、技术效率与农业生产率增长---基于甘肃省的实证分析.中国农业资源与区划,2015,36(6):93-98.
[20]姚晓红,许彦平,秘晓东.气候变化对天水苹果生长的影响及对策研究.干旱地区农业研究,2006,24(4):129-133.
[21]申顺吏,杨俊梅,王星星.影响山西苹果产量的气候因子分析及产量预测.中国气象学会年会s14提升气象科技创新能力,保障农业丰产增效.2016.
[22]段晓凤,张磊,金飞,等.气象因子对苹果产量、品质的影响研究进展.中国农学通报,2014,30(7):33-37.
[23]李星敏,柏秦凤,朱琳.气候变化对陕西苹果生长适宜性影响.应用气象学报,2011,22(2):241-248.
[24]韩林.环境变化对民勤绿洲边缘区农村家庭生计的影响研究.兰州大学,2013.
[25]谷雨,王青.新时期不同类型农户生计脆弱性研究---以重庆市合川区为例.湖北农业科学,2013,52(7):1715-1720.
[26]Paul C J,Weinthal E S,Bellemare M F,et al.Social capital,trust,and adaptation to climate change:Evidence from rural Ethiopia.Global Environmental Change,2016,36:124-138.
[27]李慧玲,马海霞,杨睿.棉花主产区棉农生计资本对生计策略的影响分析---基于新疆玛纳斯县和阿瓦提县的调查数据.干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(5):57-63.