定居工程实施背景下牧民的生计风险及应对策略——以新疆阿勒泰地区为例
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摘要
阿勒泰地区是全国和新疆自治区的重要牧区之一,在退耕还林(草)工程、牧民定居工程等农牧业重大政策实施过程中,当地农牧户也面临各种生产生活压力,暴露于各种风险之中.本文通过对阿勒泰地区牧民进行随机入户调查,探讨了牧民面临的主要生计风险及其应对策略,并采用二元Probit回归模型分析了影响牧民风险应对策略选择的主要因素.结果表明:1)牧民面临的主要风险问题为市场风险、就业风险、子女教育/婚姻风险、医疗风险等,牧民最担心的生计风险为子女教育/婚姻问题,其次是医疗风险.2)牧民最常采用的风险应对策略是政府救济,也会采取寻求他人帮助、社会保险、出售资产、外出务工等应对策略,最少采用的应对策略是孩子辍学.3)金融资本、人力资本是影响牧民风险应对策略选择的主要因素,物质资本、自然资本次之,社会资本影响最弱.从提高牧民生计风险抵御能力角度出发,提出了促进牧民稳定定居的政策建议.
Households as basic ecoeconomic system are the implementer of agricultural and implementation of major policies and are often exposed to various natural and human risks.The Altay Region is one of the key pastoral areas in Xinjiang Autonomous Region and the whole country.Take the Grain to Green and the Herdsmen Settlement Project as examples,the herdsmen face all kinds of production and living pressure,and are exposed to various livelihood risks during the implementation process of agricultural major policy.Herder household survey in the Altay Region was done to analyze the main livelihood risks faced by herders and their coping strategies.Factors affecting risk coping strategies were analyzed by binary Probit regression model.The main risks faced by herders were found to be:market risk,unemployment risk,children's education/marriage risk,medical risk.Children's education/marriage risk was the first livelihood risk worried by Herders followed by medical risks.Herders usually take government assistance as a coping strategy when they face livelihood risks,they also adopt coping strategies such as seeking helps from others,social insurance,sale of assets,going out to work or other coping strategies,dropping out of school is the last one they will adopt.Financial capital and human capital are the main factors affect risk coping strategies adopted by herders,followed by natural capital and physical capital.Social capital is the weakest.Based on improving the herders'livelihood risks resilience,the present work puts forward some policy recommendations to promote herders'stable settlement.
Households as basic ecoeconomic system are the implementer of agricultural and implementation of major policies and are often exposed to various natural and human risks.The Altay Region is one of the key pastoral areas in Xinjiang Autonomous Region and the whole country.Take the Grain to Green and the Herdsmen Settlement Project as examples,the herdsmen face all kinds of production and living pressure,and are exposed to various livelihood risks during the implementation process of agricultural major policy.Herder household survey in the Altay Region was done to analyze the main livelihood risks faced by herders and their coping strategies.Factors affecting risk coping strategies were analyzed by binary Probit regression model.The main risks faced by herders were found to be:market risk,unemployment risk,children's education/marriage risk,medical risk.Children's education/marriage risk was the first livelihood risk worried by Herders followed by medical risks.Herders usually take government assistance as a coping strategy when they face livelihood risks,they also adopt coping strategies such as seeking helps from others,social insurance,sale of assets,going out to work or other coping strategies,dropping out of school is the last one they will adopt.Financial capital and human capital are the main factors affect risk coping strategies adopted by herders,followed by natural capital and physical capital.Social capital is the weakest.Based on improving the herders'livelihood risks resilience,the present work puts forward some policy recommendations to promote herders'stable settlement.
引文
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[33]刘康,李月娥,吴群,等.基于Probit回归模型的经济发达地区土地利用变化驱动力分析:以南京市为例[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(7):2131
[34]乐章.他们在担心什么:风险与保障视角中的农民问题[J].农业经济问题,2006(2):26
[35]韩峥.脆弱性与农村贫困[J].农业经济问题,2004(10):8
[2]刘生琰.游牧民生计方式变迁与心理适应研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2013
[3]李晓丽.甘南藏族游牧民定居研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2015
[4]杜富林,丽丽,杜娅茹.牧民对极端气候风险的感知与适应对策实证研究:基于内蒙古锡林郭勒和呼伦贝尔牧户调查数据[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(9):132
[5]陈传波.农户风险与脆弱性:一个分析框架及贫困地区的经验[J].农业经济问题,2005(8):47
[6]宝希吉日,黄晶,乌日根巴雅尔.内蒙古牧户风险管理行为的实证研究[J].财经理论研究,2015(2):33
[7]苏芳,尚海洋.农户生计资本对其风险应对策略的影响:以黑河流域张掖市为例[J].中国农村经济,2012(8):79
[8]田素妍,陈嘉烨.可持续生计框架下农户气候变化适应能力研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(5):31
[9]许汉石,乐章.生计资本、生计风险与农户的生计策略[J].农业经济问题,2012(10):100
[10]赵雪雁,赵海莉,刘春芳.石羊河下游农户的生计风险及应对策略:以民勤绿洲区为例[J].地理研究,2015,34(5):922
[11]李哲,陈玉萍,丁士军,等.农户处理大病风险及其经济损失的策略:基于湖北贫困县的研究[J].管理评论,2009,21(10):116
[12]Jin J,Gao Y,Wang X,et al.Farmers’risk preferences and their climate change adaptation strategies in the Yongqiao District,China[J].Land Use Policy,2015(47):365
[13]侯麟科,仇焕广,白军飞,等.农户风险偏好对农业生产要素投入的影响:以农户玉米品种选择为例[J].农业技术经济,2014(5):21
[14]Sherbinin A D,Vanwey L K,Mcsweeney K,et al.Rural household demographics,livelihoods and the environment[J].Global Environmental Change,2008,18(1):38
[15]Berg M V D.Household income strategies and natural disasters:dynamic livelihoods in rural Nicaragua[J].Ecological Economics,2010,69(3):592
[16]Soltani A,Angelsen A,Eid T,et al.Poverty,sustainability,and household livelihood strategies in Zagros,Iran[J].Ecological Economics,2012,79(4):60
[17]催恒心.新疆牧民定居与饲草料地建设方案研究[M].乌鲁木齐:新疆人民出版社,1999
[18]郭文慧.改革开放以来新疆游牧民族定居问题研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2010
[19]张灵俐.新疆哈萨克族游牧民定居问题研究[D].石河子:石河子大学,2008
[20]吐尔逊娜依·热依木,夏热古丽·穆力达坤.北疆牧区牧民定居后的生产经营模式:以昌吉市阿什里乡为例[J].草业科学,2014(12):2348
[21]许文艳.哈萨克牧民定居后农牧业剩余劳动力转移问题研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2011
[22]李艳.游牧民定居后的经济发展研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆师范大学,2012
[23]夏热古丽·穆力达坤,吐尔逊娜依·热依木,安沙舟,等.牧民定居前后生活、生产方式的变化:以昌吉市阿什里乡为例[J].草业科学,2013(11):1876
[24]萨丽哈·木那特,杨丽,海米提·依米提.牧民定居的生态、经济和社会效益分析:以新疆昌吉市阿什里哈萨克乡为例[J].草业科学,2011,28(3):478
[25]朱进忠.对新疆草业发展的思考(一)[J].新疆农业科学,2006(3):195
[26]许鹏.新疆北疆平原荒漠生态特征,问题与对策[J].草业学报,1997,6(4):6
[27]罗麟.新疆草地资源及其合理利用[J].新疆农业科学,1991(2):834
[28]陈华忠.阿勒泰地区牧民定居工程综合效益评价[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆农业大学,2013
[29]朱秀红.新疆游牧民族定居问题的研究[D].乌鲁木齐:新疆大学,2005
[30]刘正江.哈萨克族定居牧民传统生计方式的变迁与社会适应:以新疆裕民县阿勒腾也木勒乡为例[J].中国穆斯林,2012(3):25
[31]马玲玲.新疆牧民适度定居及对策[J].新疆农业科学,2008(6):1196
[32]陈祥军.生计变迁下的环境与文化:以乌伦古河富蕴段牧民定居为例[J].开放时代,2009(11):142
[33]刘康,李月娥,吴群,等.基于Probit回归模型的经济发达地区土地利用变化驱动力分析:以南京市为例[J].应用生态学报,2015,26(7):2131
[34]乐章.他们在担心什么:风险与保障视角中的农民问题[J].农业经济问题,2006(2):26
[35]韩峥.脆弱性与农村贫困[J].农业经济问题,2004(10):8