罗兴亚人危机凸显美缅关系的深层困境
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摘要
2016年3月,昂山素季领导的缅甸全国民主联盟上台执政后,美缅关系并未如外界所预想的那样继续走近,反而因缅甸国内若开邦"罗兴亚人危机"的爆发龃龉不断。美缅关系由冷到热再到相对冷淡的原因是多方面的,这里既有缅甸国内改革放缓且人权危机爆发的因素,也有特朗普政府亚洲政策调整的影响,而深层次原因则是昂山素季和民盟政府没有倒向西方成为美国利益的代理人,而是奉行务实的中立主义外交政策,与东盟和周边大国发展平衡外交,并在经济发展与和平进程问题上加强了对中国的倚重。美国对此大失所望,转而利用罗兴亚人危机批评、敲打昂山素季。在这些因素的持续作用下,美缅关系从奥巴马时期的热络逐渐回归平淡,甚至可能迎来一段寒冬期。
After theNLD led by Ang San Suu Kyi came to power in Myanmar in March of 2016, the US and Myanmar did not get closer to each other in their relations as expected by the world, but have been caught instead in a continuing discord over the Rohingya crisis taking place in Rakhine State of Myanmar. There are multiple reasons for the US-Myanmar relationship to warm up before cooling off, which superficially involve not only the slowing down of reforms and outbreak of human right crisis in Myanmar, but also policy adjustment by the Trump administration toward Asia. However, the deep-seated reason lies in the fact that Ang San Suu Kyi and the NLD government refuse to lean to the US and become its proxy, but pursue a practical and neutral diplomatic line, while developing a balanced relationship with ASEAN and major countries in the neighborhood, and strengthening its reliance on China for economic development and domestic peace process, which has so much annoyed the US that it chastises Ang San Suu Kyi by capitalizing on the Rohingya crisis. Under the persisting impact of these factors, the US-Myanmar relationship has cooled off from a heated one during the Obama administration, which may even witness a cold spell.
After theNLD led by Ang San Suu Kyi came to power in Myanmar in March of 2016, the US and Myanmar did not get closer to each other in their relations as expected by the world, but have been caught instead in a continuing discord over the Rohingya crisis taking place in Rakhine State of Myanmar. There are multiple reasons for the US-Myanmar relationship to warm up before cooling off, which superficially involve not only the slowing down of reforms and outbreak of human right crisis in Myanmar, but also policy adjustment by the Trump administration toward Asia. However, the deep-seated reason lies in the fact that Ang San Suu Kyi and the NLD government refuse to lean to the US and become its proxy, but pursue a practical and neutral diplomatic line, while developing a balanced relationship with ASEAN and major countries in the neighborhood, and strengthening its reliance on China for economic development and domestic peace process, which has so much annoyed the US that it chastises Ang San Suu Kyi by capitalizing on the Rohingya crisis. Under the persisting impact of these factors, the US-Myanmar relationship has cooled off from a heated one during the Obama administration, which may even witness a cold spell.
引文
[1]“罗兴亚人”译自缅语Rohingya,也可以为“罗兴迦人”“罗兴伽人”等。但缅甸政府并不承认“罗兴亚人”这一称呼,而称其为“宾格利人”(Bengali,孟加拉人的音译),或“若开穆斯林”。
[1]祝湘辉:《“保护的责任”中的非军事干预新模式》,载《南亚研究》2019年第1期,第124页。
[1]“163 Killed, 91 Missing from Oct. 9 to Sept. 26 in N-Rakhine,” The Global New Light of Myanmar, September 27, 2017, http://www.globalnewlightofmyanmar.com/163-killed-91-missing-9-oct-26-sept-northern-rakhine/.
[2]“A Visual that Shows Just How Many Rohingya Villages Have Been Burned,”Reuters, January 1, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingyarakhine/a-visual-that-shows-just-how-many-rohingya-villages-have-been-burnedidUSKBN1EQ0PO.
[3]“UN Says Rohingya Crisis Could Endanger Regional Security,” U. S. News, February 5,2018, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-02-04/un-rohingya-crisis-couldendanger-regional-security.
[4]“UN council calls for ‘immediate steps’ to end Myanmar violence,” September14, 2017, https://www.yahoo.com/news/myanmars-suu-kyi-scraps-un-trip-amidrohingya-055639873.html.
[1]《昂山素季会见彭斯:我们比任何国家都了解缅甸》,观察者网,2018年11月14日,https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2018_11_14_479657.shtml?s=zwyzxw。
[2]“H.R. 5819, BURMA Act of 2018,” https://www.congress.gov/bill/115thcongress/house-bill/5819/text.
[3]“Treasury Sanctions Commanders and Units of the Burmese Security Forces for Serious Human Rights Abuses,” The U.S. Department of the Treasury website, August 17, 2018, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm460.
[1]“Myanmar military leaders must face genocide charges-UN report,” UN website,August 27, 2018, https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/08/1017802.
[2]“For West, Aung San Suu Kyi's silence complicates response to Rohingya crisis,” The Christian Science Monitor, September 7, 2018, https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2018/0907/For-West-Aung-San-Suu-Kyi-s-silence-complicates-response-to-Rohingya-crisis.
[1]郭晨熹:《推动缅甸境内的和平:美国的利益与角色》,载《南洋资料译丛》2018年第1期,第32页。
[1]彭念:《美缅关系进入寒冬》,载[新加坡]《联合早报》2017年11月30日,http://www.zaobao.com/forum/expert/peng-nian/story20171130-815055。
[1]《总统强调警惕民主转型风险》,载《缅甸金凤凰报》2018年9月28日,https://mmgpmedia.com/local/28458-2018-09-28-09-20-03。
[2]张云飞:《缅甸新总统治下外交会否有“钟摆现象”?》,载《亚太日报》2018年4月3日,https://cn.apdnews.com/guandian/830242.html。
[1]《昂山素季称很喜欢现在的缅中关系感谢中国理解缅甸》,载《环球时报》2017年9 月23日,http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/2017-09-23/doc-ifymeswc9432912.shtml。
[1] Karl D. Jackson,“Myanmar Awakening and U.S. National Interests,” Testimony Prepared for the Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific Affairs, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, April 26, 2012, http://web.jhu.edu/administration/gca/_archive/legacy-assets/MyanmartestimonyApril2012.pdf.http://web.jhu.edu/administration/gca/_archive/legacyassets/MyanmartestimonyApril2012.pdf.
[2]李晨阳:《西方国家制裁缅甸的目的及其效用评析》,载《国际关系学院院报》2009年第2期,第31页。
[1] Jürgen Haacke,“Myanmar and the United States Prospects for a Limited Security Partnership,” The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, November 2015.
[2]李枏:《奥巴马政府对缅甸政策的演变及走向》,载《现代国际关系》2015年第12期,第28页。
[1][美]普里希拉·A·克拉普:《美国缅甸政策的调整方向》,载《南洋问题研究》2016年第3期,第83页。
[1]祝湘辉:《“保护的责任”中的非军事干预新模式》,载《南亚研究》2019年第1期,第124页。
[1]“163 Killed, 91 Missing from Oct. 9 to Sept. 26 in N-Rakhine,” The Global New Light of Myanmar, September 27, 2017, http://www.globalnewlightofmyanmar.com/163-killed-91-missing-9-oct-26-sept-northern-rakhine/.
[2]“A Visual that Shows Just How Many Rohingya Villages Have Been Burned,”Reuters, January 1, 2018, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-rohingyarakhine/a-visual-that-shows-just-how-many-rohingya-villages-have-been-burnedidUSKBN1EQ0PO.
[3]“UN Says Rohingya Crisis Could Endanger Regional Security,” U. S. News, February 5,2018, https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2018-02-04/un-rohingya-crisis-couldendanger-regional-security.
[4]“UN council calls for ‘immediate steps’ to end Myanmar violence,” September14, 2017, https://www.yahoo.com/news/myanmars-suu-kyi-scraps-un-trip-amidrohingya-055639873.html.
[1]《昂山素季会见彭斯:我们比任何国家都了解缅甸》,观察者网,2018年11月14日,https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2018_11_14_479657.shtml?s=zwyzxw。
[2]“H.R. 5819, BURMA Act of 2018,” https://www.congress.gov/bill/115thcongress/house-bill/5819/text.
[3]“Treasury Sanctions Commanders and Units of the Burmese Security Forces for Serious Human Rights Abuses,” The U.S. Department of the Treasury website, August 17, 2018, https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sm460.
[1]“Myanmar military leaders must face genocide charges-UN report,” UN website,August 27, 2018, https://news.un.org/en/story/2018/08/1017802.
[2]“For West, Aung San Suu Kyi's silence complicates response to Rohingya crisis,” The Christian Science Monitor, September 7, 2018, https://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2018/0907/For-West-Aung-San-Suu-Kyi-s-silence-complicates-response-to-Rohingya-crisis.
[1]郭晨熹:《推动缅甸境内的和平:美国的利益与角色》,载《南洋资料译丛》2018年第1期,第32页。
[1]彭念:《美缅关系进入寒冬》,载[新加坡]《联合早报》2017年11月30日,http://www.zaobao.com/forum/expert/peng-nian/story20171130-815055。
[1]《总统强调警惕民主转型风险》,载《缅甸金凤凰报》2018年9月28日,https://mmgpmedia.com/local/28458-2018-09-28-09-20-03。
[2]张云飞:《缅甸新总统治下外交会否有“钟摆现象”?》,载《亚太日报》2018年4月3日,https://cn.apdnews.com/guandian/830242.html。
[1]《昂山素季称很喜欢现在的缅中关系感谢中国理解缅甸》,载《环球时报》2017年9 月23日,http://mil.news.sina.com.cn/2017-09-23/doc-ifymeswc9432912.shtml。
[1] Karl D. Jackson,“Myanmar Awakening and U.S. National Interests,” Testimony Prepared for the Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific Affairs, Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, April 26, 2012, http://web.jhu.edu/administration/gca/_archive/legacy-assets/MyanmartestimonyApril2012.pdf.http://web.jhu.edu/administration/gca/_archive/legacyassets/MyanmartestimonyApril2012.pdf.
[2]李晨阳:《西方国家制裁缅甸的目的及其效用评析》,载《国际关系学院院报》2009年第2期,第31页。
[1] Jürgen Haacke,“Myanmar and the United States Prospects for a Limited Security Partnership,” The United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, November 2015.
[2]李枏:《奥巴马政府对缅甸政策的演变及走向》,载《现代国际关系》2015年第12期,第28页。
[1][美]普里希拉·A·克拉普:《美国缅甸政策的调整方向》,载《南洋问题研究》2016年第3期,第83页。