吉林省东部气象因子与玉米延迟型冷害的时空演变规律
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摘要
基于1980—2014年吉林东部地区逐日气象数据和玉米种植资料,利用Mann-Kendall突变分析法、气候倾向率、偏最小二乘回归分析等方法,揭示了气候变化背景下冷害的时空演变规律,同时对影响冷害的气象因子进行探究。结果表明:(1)近35年热量条件有所改善,冷害呈现减少趋势。20世纪80年代,冷害受低温阴雨、早霜等天气影响表现为发生频率高、强度大,20世纪90年代气温升高,冷害发生频率降低,中期降水异常增加,冷害强度增大,21世纪气温大幅提高,冷害少有发生,但不排除区域极端低温的可能;(2)吉林东部地区气候整体变暖且初霜日推迟,降水量南多北少,日照时数东升西降。而冷害发生频率空间分布规律为随着生育期推进冷害高频区逐渐由中部山区向高纬度延伸,即高纬度、高海拔地区成为冷害的高发区;(3)玉米在出苗—抽雄期受低温影响较大,冷害年气温受各气象因子的影响大小为降水量>日照时数>初霜日,尤其高海拔山区多阴雨寡照天气,易发生冷害。
Based on the daily meteorological data and maize planting data from 1980 to 2014 in eastern Jilin Province,Mann-Kendall mutation analysis,climate propensity and partial least-squares regression analysis were used to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of chilling damage in the context of climate change.At the same time,the meteorological factors that affect chilling damage were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)heat condition had been improved in the past 35 years,and the chilling damage presented the decreasing trend;In the 1980 s,cold damage was affected by the weather such as low temperature overcast and rainy weather,early frost and so on,the occurrence frequency and intensity were high;In the 1990 s,with the increase of temperature and the anomalous increase of mid-term precipitation,the frequency of chilling damage decreased,but intensity increased;cold damage rarely occurred due to the significantly warmer temperature in the 21 st century,but did not rule out the possibility of extreme low temperatures in the region;(2)climate in eastern Jilin Province warmed up and the initial frost date was delayed,with more precipitation in the south and less in the north,and the sunshine hours were rising in eastern part and declining in the west;however,the frequency of chilling damage showed that the high frequency zone of chilling damage gradually extended from the central mountain area to high latitude area as the growth period progressed,which meant that high latitudes and high altitude areas became the high incidence areas of chilling damage;(3)maize was greatly affected by the low temperature in the emergence-tasseling stage,the impact of mete-orological factor on temperature decreased in the order:the amount of precipitation>sunshine hours>early frost days;more rainy weather in high altitude area was prone to chilling damage.
Based on the daily meteorological data and maize planting data from 1980 to 2014 in eastern Jilin Province,Mann-Kendall mutation analysis,climate propensity and partial least-squares regression analysis were used to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution of chilling damage in the context of climate change.At the same time,the meteorological factors that affect chilling damage were analyzed.The results showed that:(1)heat condition had been improved in the past 35 years,and the chilling damage presented the decreasing trend;In the 1980 s,cold damage was affected by the weather such as low temperature overcast and rainy weather,early frost and so on,the occurrence frequency and intensity were high;In the 1990 s,with the increase of temperature and the anomalous increase of mid-term precipitation,the frequency of chilling damage decreased,but intensity increased;cold damage rarely occurred due to the significantly warmer temperature in the 21 st century,but did not rule out the possibility of extreme low temperatures in the region;(2)climate in eastern Jilin Province warmed up and the initial frost date was delayed,with more precipitation in the south and less in the north,and the sunshine hours were rising in eastern part and declining in the west;however,the frequency of chilling damage showed that the high frequency zone of chilling damage gradually extended from the central mountain area to high latitude area as the growth period progressed,which meant that high latitudes and high altitude areas became the high incidence areas of chilling damage;(3)maize was greatly affected by the low temperature in the emergence-tasseling stage,the impact of mete-orological factor on temperature decreased in the order:the amount of precipitation>sunshine hours>early frost days;more rainy weather in high altitude area was prone to chilling damage.
引文
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[23]李宝,胡阳,汪光胜,等.江淮分水岭区农作物干旱时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(6):227-232,237.
[24]王蕊,张继权,郭恩亮,等.近55a吉林中西部玉米生长季旱涝时空特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2018,27(1):186-197.
[25]刘慧斌,温敏,何金海,等.东北冷涡活动的季节内振荡特征及其影响[J].大气科学,2012,36(5):959-973.
[2]王培娟,韩丽娟,周广胜,等.气候变暖对东北三省春玉米布局的可能影响及其应对策略[J].自然资源学报,2015,30(8):1343-1355.
[3] Solomon S.IPCC:Climate change the physical science basis[C]∥AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts,2007.
[4]王春乙.中国重大农业气象灾害研究[M].北京:气象出版社,2010.
[5]张继权.农业气象灾害风险评价、预警及管理研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2015.
[6]中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴2008[M].北京:气象出版社,2009.
[7]中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴2011[M].北京:气象出版社,2012.
[8]中国气象局.中国气象灾害年鉴2013[M].北京:气象出版社,2014.
[9]王远皓,王春乙,张雪芬.作物低温冷害指标及风险评估研究进展[J].气象科技,2008,36(3):310-317.
[10]檀艳静,张佳华,姚凤梅,等.中国作物低温冷害监测与模拟预报研究进展[J].生态学杂志,2013,32(7):1920-1927.
[11]纪瑞鹏,于文颖,冯锐,等.寒地水稻障碍型冷害指数构建及应用:以辽宁为例[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(4):437-445.
[12]王春乙,张继权,霍治国,等.农业气象灾害风险评估研究进展与展望[J].气象学报,2015(1):1-19.
[13]徐玉秀,蒋姗姗,周福然,等.1981—2010年锦州地区玉米生育期气象因子变化及其与气象产量的关系[J].气象与环境学报,2017,33(5):82-90.
[14]范磊,郑国清,赵全志,等.河南省水稻气象灾害因子分析及主要灾害发生区划研究[J].中国农业资源与区划,2013,34(6):162-168,175.
[15]韩荣青,陈丽娟,李维京,等.2—5月我国低温连阴雨和南方冷害时空特征[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(3):312-320.
[16]孟祥君,吴正方,杜海波,等.1961—2010年吉林省5—9月各月发生的低温冷害变化特征[J].东北师大学报:自然科学版,2012,44(3):112-117.
[17]彭聪.近50年吉林东部地区农业气候条件变化及农业生产对气候变化的响应研究[D].长春:东北师范大学,2010.
[18]中国气象局.QX/T167-2012北方春玉米冷害评估技术规范[S].北京:气象出版社,2013.
[19]曲辉辉,姜丽霞,王冬冬.气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响[J].生态学报,2016,36(3):769-777.
[20]田宝星,宫丽娟,杨帆,等.黑龙江省春季低温指数小波分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):342-345,350.
[21]史佳良,王秀茹,李淑芳,等.近50年来河南省气温和降水时空变化特征分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(3):151-156.
[22]董满宇,吴正方.近50年来吉林省气温和降水变化趋势分析[J].东北师大学报:自然科学版,2007,39(3):114-119.
[23]李宝,胡阳,汪光胜,等.江淮分水岭区农作物干旱时空变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(6):227-232,237.
[24]王蕊,张继权,郭恩亮,等.近55a吉林中西部玉米生长季旱涝时空特征分析[J].自然灾害学报,2018,27(1):186-197.
[25]刘慧斌,温敏,何金海,等.东北冷涡活动的季节内振荡特征及其影响[J].大气科学,2012,36(5):959-973.