重庆市育龄女性理想生育意愿及影响因素研究
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摘要
目的:探讨在"全面二孩"政策背景下,重庆市育龄女性理想生育意愿并提出对策。方法:抽样调查重庆市14个区县40个调查点20～49岁的城乡育龄女性4475例,采用描述性统计、交叉分析以及二元logistic回归分析方法,分析育龄妇女理想生育意愿及其影响因素。结果:①年龄不同、户籍不同、受教育程度不同、是否独生子女、已有子女数、理想子女性别、收入水平不同以及带孩子方式不同的育龄女性理想生育子女数差异有统计学意义(P<0.05);②年龄、户籍、文化程度、是否独生子女、已有子女数及性别、收入水平以及带孩子方式对理想子女生育意愿的影响有统计学意义。结论:重庆市实际生育水平低于理想生育水平、理想生育水平低于更替生育水平,重庆市需要做好应对低生育水平所带来的发展瓶颈。
Objective: To explore the homogeneity and heterogeneity of the ideal fertility willingness of childbearing age women of Chongqing under the background of the comprehensive two child policy, and to put forward countermeasures, so as to provide the necessary human resources for the stable development of economy and society. Methods: Descriptive statistics, cross analysis and binary logistic regression analysis were used to study childbearing age women with 20 to 49 years old in urban and rural areas. The survey methods included random sampling and structural interviews. Results: There were significant different in the number of ideal children among childbearing age women with different age, household registration, education level, whether had only one child, the number of existing children, the gender of ideal children, and income level. The age, household registration, educational level, whether had only one child, the number of existing children, gender of child, and income level of women had statistical significance influenced on ideal children's fertility intention. Conclusion: The actual fertility level in Chongqing is lower than the ideal fertility level, and the ideal fertility level is lower than the replacement fertility level. So Chongqing needs to cope with the development bottleneck caused by the low fertility level.
Objective: To explore the homogeneity and heterogeneity of the ideal fertility willingness of childbearing age women of Chongqing under the background of the comprehensive two child policy, and to put forward countermeasures, so as to provide the necessary human resources for the stable development of economy and society. Methods: Descriptive statistics, cross analysis and binary logistic regression analysis were used to study childbearing age women with 20 to 49 years old in urban and rural areas. The survey methods included random sampling and structural interviews. Results: There were significant different in the number of ideal children among childbearing age women with different age, household registration, education level, whether had only one child, the number of existing children, the gender of ideal children, and income level. The age, household registration, educational level, whether had only one child, the number of existing children, gender of child, and income level of women had statistical significance influenced on ideal children's fertility intention. Conclusion: The actual fertility level in Chongqing is lower than the ideal fertility level, and the ideal fertility level is lower than the replacement fertility level. So Chongqing needs to cope with the development bottleneck caused by the low fertility level.
引文
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[3] 杨菊华.单独二孩政策下流动人口的生育意愿试析[J].中国人口科学,2015,(1):89-96.
[4] 庄亚儿,姜玉,王志理,李成福,齐嘉楠,王晖,刘鸿雁,李伯华,覃民.当前我国城乡居民的生育意愿——基于2013年全国生育意愿调查[J].人口研究,2014,(3):3-13.
[5] 风笑天,张青松.二十年城乡居民生育意愿变迁研究[J].市场与人口分析,2002,(5):21-31.
[6] 叶晓艳,风笑天.城乡居民的生育状况与生育意愿[J].社会,2000,(3):12-13.
[7] 王军,王广州.中国育龄人群的生育意愿及其影响估计[J].中国人口科学,2013(4):26-35,126.
[8] 风笑天,李芬.再生一个?城市一孩育龄人群的年龄结构与生育意愿[J].思想战线,2016,42(1):88-95.
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