基于多场参数相关台风工程模型的上海地区台风设计风环境研究
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摘要
结合台风在我国沿海登陆过程风场参数实测数据拟合模型,拟合参数包括台风几何尺度场(最大风速半径Rmax)和气压分布场(径向气压系数β)等,提出了适用于我国东南沿海区域的考虑多个场参数之间相关性的台风风场改进数值模型。以上海市崇明岛侯家镇气象站1971—2015年间57次台风全过程连续实测记录为参考依据,通过对比台风最大风速的模拟与实测结果,优化了气象站场地地表粗糙高度z0=0.095 m,并结合台风路径历史观测资料和场参数之间概率相关性的实测拟合关系,利用台风工程模型再现了气象站四次典型较强台风风速发展过程,最大风速的相对误差在12%以内,证明了模型应用于台风最大风速预测的可靠性。采用Monte-Carlo台风随机模拟方法和抽样越界峰值法,计算了台风气候模式侯家镇和以上海为代表中心区域典型工程场地的设计基本风速和平均风剖面,获得侯家镇和上海B类场地(z0=0.05 m)百年一遇10 m高度10 min平均风速分别为31.51 m/s和37.46 m/s,标准差为2.05 m/s和2.66 m/s,同时比较了三种不同风剖面拟合模型,给出了四类典型地貌下台风气候风剖面拟合关系。
A modified typhoon numerical model is proposed based on data measured during the landfall of several typhoons as well as the fitting relationships of typical typhoon field parameters such as the maximum wind speed radius Rmaxassociated with storm scale field and radial pressure distribution coefficient β related to pressure field.The modified model considers the correlation among field parameters and is applicable for the region of Southeast coast of China.Using the field observation data of 57 typhoons from 1971 to 2015 in the Houjia Town meteorological station,Shanghai,the equivalent roughness length of engineering site was optimized as z0= 0.095 m.The validation of maximal wind speeds for each typhoon between the observed and simulated results was conducted.Combining the observation data of typhoon tracks and the fitting relationships of typical field parameters,the wind speeds observed by Houjia Town station of four typically stronger typhoons was reproduced by the improved typhoon engineering model.The relative errors of maximum wind speeds between the observations and the model are within 12%.It is demonstrated that the present model is sufficiently reliable for predicting the maximum typhoon winds.Basic wind speeds and profiles of the Houjia Town station and typical engineering sites in the Shanghai region were calculated via the Monte-Carlo stochastic simulation method and the peak over Threshold method.The 10 min mean wind speed at a height of 10 m with the return period of 100 years in the Houjia Town station and the category B exposure(z0=0.05 m) of Shanghai are 31.51 m/s and 37.46 m/s with the standard derivation of 2.05 m/s and 2.66 m/s,respectively.Moreover,the preferable mean wind profile models for engineering sites with four kinds of category under typhoon winds were suggested after comparing three different wind profile models.
A modified typhoon numerical model is proposed based on data measured during the landfall of several typhoons as well as the fitting relationships of typical typhoon field parameters such as the maximum wind speed radius Rmaxassociated with storm scale field and radial pressure distribution coefficient β related to pressure field.The modified model considers the correlation among field parameters and is applicable for the region of Southeast coast of China.Using the field observation data of 57 typhoons from 1971 to 2015 in the Houjia Town meteorological station,Shanghai,the equivalent roughness length of engineering site was optimized as z0= 0.095 m.The validation of maximal wind speeds for each typhoon between the observed and simulated results was conducted.Combining the observation data of typhoon tracks and the fitting relationships of typical field parameters,the wind speeds observed by Houjia Town station of four typically stronger typhoons was reproduced by the improved typhoon engineering model.The relative errors of maximum wind speeds between the observations and the model are within 12%.It is demonstrated that the present model is sufficiently reliable for predicting the maximum typhoon winds.Basic wind speeds and profiles of the Houjia Town station and typical engineering sites in the Shanghai region were calculated via the Monte-Carlo stochastic simulation method and the peak over Threshold method.The 10 min mean wind speed at a height of 10 m with the return period of 100 years in the Houjia Town station and the category B exposure(z0=0.05 m) of Shanghai are 31.51 m/s and 37.46 m/s with the standard derivation of 2.05 m/s and 2.66 m/s,respectively.Moreover,the preferable mean wind profile models for engineering sites with four kinds of category under typhoon winds were suggested after comparing three different wind profile models.
引文
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[5]SHAPIRO L J.The asymmetric boundary layer flow under a translating hurricane[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1983,40(8):1984-1998.
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[13]SONG L,CHEN W,WANG B,ZHI S,LIU A.Characteristics of wind profiles in the landfalling typhoon boundary layer[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,2016,149:77-88.
[14]VICKERY P J,WADHERA D.Statistical models of Holland pressure profile parameter and radius to maximum winds of hurricanes from flight-level pressure and H*Wind data[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2008,47:2497-2517.
[15]JAKOBSEN F,MADSEN H.Comparison and further development of parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modelling[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,2004,92(5):375-391.
[16]FANG G,ZHAO L,SONG L,et al.Reconstruction of radial parametric pressure field near ground surface of landing typhoons in Northwest Pacific Ocean[J].Journal of Wind Engineering&Industrial Aerodynamics,2018,183:223-234。
[17]ZHAO L,LU A,ZHU L,et al.Radial pressure profile of typhoon field near ground surface observed by distributed meteorologic stations[J].Journal of Wind Engineering&Industrial Aerodynamics,2013,122(11):105-112.
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[19]建筑结构荷载规范:GB 50009-2012[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2012.(Load code for the design of building structures:GB 50009-2012[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2012.(in Chinese))
[20]HOLLAND G J.An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes[J].Monthly Weather Review,1980,108(8):1212-1218.
[21]方根深,赵林,梁旭东,等.基于强台风“黑格比”的台风工程模型场参数在中国南部沿海适用性研究[J].建筑结构学报,2018,39(2):106-113.(FANGGenshen,ZHAO Lin,LIANG Xudong,et al.Applicability analysis of typhoon field parameters in engineering model for south coastal region of China based on strong typhoon Hagupit 0814[J].Journal of Building Structures,2018,39(2):106-113.(in Chinese)).
[22]SHARMA R N,RICHARDS P J.A re-examination of the characteristics of tropical cyclone winds[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1999,83(1):21-33.
[23]公路桥梁抗风设计规范:JTG/T D60-01-2004[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.(Wind-resistant design specification for highway bridges:JTG/T D60-01-2004[S].Beijing:China Communications Press,2004.(in Chinese))
[24]Basis of design and actions on structures,part 2-4:actions on structures-wind actions:EN 1991-1-4:2005[S].Brussels:European Committee for Standardization(CEN),1995.
[25]赵林.风场模式数值模拟与大跨度桥梁抖振概率评价[D].上海:同济大学,2003.(ZHAO Lin.Numerical simulation of wind field and reliability assessment of buffeting for long-span bridge[D].Shanghai:Tongji University,2003.(in Chinese))
[26]HE Y C,CHAN P W,LI Q S.Observations of vertical wind profiles of tropical cyclones at coastal areas[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,2016,152:1-14.
[27]VICKERY P J,WADHERA D,POWELL M D,et al.A hurricane boundary layer and wind field model for use in engineering applications[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2009,48(2):381-405.
[28]COOK N J.The Deaves and Harris ABL model applied to heterogeneous terrain[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1997,66(3):197-214.
[2]CAO S,TAMURA Y,KIKUCHI,SAITO M,NAKAYAMA I,MATSUZAK Y.A case study of gust factor of a strong typhoon[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,2015,138:52-60.
[3]潘晶晶,赵林,冀春晓,等.东南沿海登陆台风近地脉动特性分析[J].建筑结构学报,2016,37(1):85-90.(PAN Jingjing,ZHAO Lin,JI Chunxiao,et al.Fluctuating wind characteristics near flat ground during typhoon landfall in southeast coastal areas of China[J].Journal of Building Structures,2016,37(1):85-90.(in Chinese))
[4]BATTS M E,SIMIU E,RUSSEL L R.Hurricane wind speeds in the United States[J].Journal of the Structural Division,1980,106(10):2001-2016.
[5]SHAPIRO L J.The asymmetric boundary layer flow under a translating hurricane[J].Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences,1983,40(8):1984-1998.
[6]GEORGIOU P N.Design wind speeds in tropical cyclone-prone regions[D].London,Ontario:University of Western Ontario,1986.
[7]VICKERY P J,TWISDALE L A.Prediction of hurricane wind speeds in the United States[J].Journal of Structural Engineering,1995,121(11):1691-1699.
[8]MENG Y,MATSUI M,HIBI K.An analytical model for simulation of the wind field in a typhoon boundary layer[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1995,56(2):291-310.
[9]李茜,段忠东.Shapiro台风风场模型及数值模拟[J].自然灾害学报,2005,12(1):45-52.(LI Qian,DUAN Zhongdong.Shapiro typhoon wind-field model and its numerical simulation[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,12(1):45-52.(in Chinese))
[10]赵林,葛耀君,宋丽莉,毛慧琴.广州地区台风极值风特性蒙特卡罗随机模拟[J].同济大学学报,2007,35(8):1034-1039.(ZHAO Lin,GE Yaojun,SONG Lili,MAO Huiqin.Monte-Carlo simulation analysis of typhoon extreme value wind characteristics in Guangzhou[J].Journal of Tongji University,2007,35(8):1034-1039.(in Chinese))
[11]赵林,朱乐东,葛耀君.上海地区台风特性MonteCarlo随机模拟研究[J].空气动力学学报,2009,27(1):25-31.(ZHAO Lin,ZHU Ledong,GE Yaojun.Monte-Carlo simulation about typhoon extreme value wind characteristics in Shanghai region[J].Acta Aerodynamica Sinica,2009,27(1):25-31.(in Chinese))
[12]葛耀君,赵林,项海帆.基于极值风速预测的台风数值模型评述[J].自然灾害学报,2003,21(3):31-40.(GE Yaojun,ZHAO Lin,XIANG Haifan.Review for numerical typhoon models based on extreme wind velocity prediction[J].Journal of Natural Disasters,2003,21(3):31-40.(in Chinese))
[13]SONG L,CHEN W,WANG B,ZHI S,LIU A.Characteristics of wind profiles in the landfalling typhoon boundary layer[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,2016,149:77-88.
[14]VICKERY P J,WADHERA D.Statistical models of Holland pressure profile parameter and radius to maximum winds of hurricanes from flight-level pressure and H*Wind data[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2008,47:2497-2517.
[15]JAKOBSEN F,MADSEN H.Comparison and further development of parametric tropical cyclone models for storm surge modelling[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,2004,92(5):375-391.
[16]FANG G,ZHAO L,SONG L,et al.Reconstruction of radial parametric pressure field near ground surface of landing typhoons in Northwest Pacific Ocean[J].Journal of Wind Engineering&Industrial Aerodynamics,2018,183:223-234。
[17]ZHAO L,LU A,ZHU L,et al.Radial pressure profile of typhoon field near ground surface observed by distributed meteorologic stations[J].Journal of Wind Engineering&Industrial Aerodynamics,2013,122(11):105-112.
[18]中国气象局.热带气旋年鉴[M].北京:气象出版社,1949-2015.
[19]建筑结构荷载规范:GB 50009-2012[S].北京:中国建筑工业出版社,2012.(Load code for the design of building structures:GB 50009-2012[S].Beijing:China Architecture&Building Press,2012.(in Chinese))
[20]HOLLAND G J.An analytic model of the wind and pressure profiles in hurricanes[J].Monthly Weather Review,1980,108(8):1212-1218.
[21]方根深,赵林,梁旭东,等.基于强台风“黑格比”的台风工程模型场参数在中国南部沿海适用性研究[J].建筑结构学报,2018,39(2):106-113.(FANGGenshen,ZHAO Lin,LIANG Xudong,et al.Applicability analysis of typhoon field parameters in engineering model for south coastal region of China based on strong typhoon Hagupit 0814[J].Journal of Building Structures,2018,39(2):106-113.(in Chinese)).
[22]SHARMA R N,RICHARDS P J.A re-examination of the characteristics of tropical cyclone winds[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1999,83(1):21-33.
[23]公路桥梁抗风设计规范:JTG/T D60-01-2004[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2004.(Wind-resistant design specification for highway bridges:JTG/T D60-01-2004[S].Beijing:China Communications Press,2004.(in Chinese))
[24]Basis of design and actions on structures,part 2-4:actions on structures-wind actions:EN 1991-1-4:2005[S].Brussels:European Committee for Standardization(CEN),1995.
[25]赵林.风场模式数值模拟与大跨度桥梁抖振概率评价[D].上海:同济大学,2003.(ZHAO Lin.Numerical simulation of wind field and reliability assessment of buffeting for long-span bridge[D].Shanghai:Tongji University,2003.(in Chinese))
[26]HE Y C,CHAN P W,LI Q S.Observations of vertical wind profiles of tropical cyclones at coastal areas[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,2016,152:1-14.
[27]VICKERY P J,WADHERA D,POWELL M D,et al.A hurricane boundary layer and wind field model for use in engineering applications[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2009,48(2):381-405.
[28]COOK N J.The Deaves and Harris ABL model applied to heterogeneous terrain[J].Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics,1997,66(3):197-214.