中国电力消费强度的主导效应分析——基于结构效应与强度效应的视角
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摘要
为探究中国电力消费增长与经济增长相互偏离的原因,采用LMDI分解法对2005-2014年电力消费量及产业增加值等相关统计数据进行分解。结果表明:引起中国电力消费增长与经济增长大幅度偏离的主要因素是电力消费强度发生变化;在"十一五"和"十二五"时期,结构效应发挥的作用逐步超过电耗强度效应,电力消费强度下降幅度相较"十一五"期间有所加大,但大多数细分产业电耗强度仍对电力消费强度下降起着制约作用。
In order to explore the reasons of the deviation between China's electricity consumption growth and economic growth.In this paper,using the LMDI decomposition method to study the relevant statistical data of 2005-2014 electricity consumption and industrial added value.The results showed that the key factor of causing China's electricity consumption to deviate greatly from economic growth is the change of electricity consumption intensity;In the Eleventh Five-year and the Twelfth Five-year Plan,structure effects play the role gradually over the intensity effects;Electricity consumption intensity decreased greatly compared to the Eleventh Five-year plan,but most of the industrial electricity intensity effects still play a restricted role in the decreasing of electricity consumption intensity.
In order to explore the reasons of the deviation between China's electricity consumption growth and economic growth.In this paper,using the LMDI decomposition method to study the relevant statistical data of 2005-2014 electricity consumption and industrial added value.The results showed that the key factor of causing China's electricity consumption to deviate greatly from economic growth is the change of electricity consumption intensity;In the Eleventh Five-year and the Twelfth Five-year Plan,structure effects play the role gradually over the intensity effects;Electricity consumption intensity decreased greatly compared to the Eleventh Five-year plan,but most of the industrial electricity intensity effects still play a restricted role in the decreasing of electricity consumption intensity.
引文
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[2]孙宁,徐菊艳.中国三大产业电力消耗影响因素的分解分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2011,20(8).
[3]张瑞,丁日佳,尹岚岚.产业结构变动对中国能源消费影响的Paneldata模型[J].现代商业化,2007(1).
[4]林卫斌,苏剑.经济增长、结构变化与电力消费[J].经济理论与经济管理,2010(2).
[5]王海鹏,田澎.基于结构份额与效率份额的电力消费强度[J].系统工程理论方法应用,2005,14(6).
[6]潘雄锋,李良玉.中国电力消费强度与产业结构的变动趋势研究[J].中国科技论坛,2009(7).
[7]何建坤,张希良.中国“十一五”期间能源强度下降趋势分析—如何实现能源强度下降20%的目标[J].中国软科学,2006(4).
[8]张雷,蔡国田.中国能源消费增长趋势分析[J].中国软科学,2006(11).
[9]齐绍洲,云波,李锴.中国经济增长与能源消费强度差异的收敛性及机理分析[J].经济研究,2009(4).
[10]刘静华,贾仁安,涂国平.1995年至2007年中国能源消费强度的分解模型及实证分析—基于结构份额和效率份额视角[J].资源科学,2010,32(10).
[11]Steenhof,Paul A.Decomposition of Electricity Demand in China’s Industrial Sector[J].Energy Economics,2006,28(3).
[12]Ang B W,Liu F L,Chew EP.Perfect Decomposition Techniques in Energy and Environmental Analysis[J].Energy Policy,2003,31(14).
[13]Ang B W.Decomposition Analysis for Policymaking in Energy:Which is the Preferred Method?[J].Energy Policy,2004,32(9).
[14]宋敏,郭清卉.基于LMDI方法的陕西省能源消费碳足迹因素分解研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2015,30(4).