经济转型时期电力弹性系数应用
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摘要
分析1978年以来中国电力弹性系数的变化情况,总结电力弹性系数短期波动的主要原因,提炼电力弹性系数波动的长期规律;对比典型发达国家电力弹性系数的变化经验,提出在经济转型时期应用电力弹性系数的方法,对中国"十三五"、"十四五"、"十五五"电力需求预测结果进行校核。
Based on an analysis of the variation of China's electricity elasticity coefficient since 1978, this paper elaborates the reasons for the large variation of China's electricity elasticity coefficient in the short term, and finds out the long-term pattern of the variation. Through comparison with the developed countries' experience in electricity elasticity coefficient variation, a method is proposed for the application of electricity elasticity coefficient during economic transition period, and a check is made on the power demand forecasting for the 13 th. 14 th and 15 th Five-Year Periods(2016-2020, 2021-2025 and 2026-2030, respectively).
Based on an analysis of the variation of China's electricity elasticity coefficient since 1978, this paper elaborates the reasons for the large variation of China's electricity elasticity coefficient in the short term, and finds out the long-term pattern of the variation. Through comparison with the developed countries' experience in electricity elasticity coefficient variation, a method is proposed for the application of electricity elasticity coefficient during economic transition period, and a check is made on the power demand forecasting for the 13 th. 14 th and 15 th Five-Year Periods(2016-2020, 2021-2025 and 2026-2030, respectively).
引文
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[2]郝卫平,李琼慧,赵一农.我国电力弹性系数的现实意义[J].中国电力,2003,36(5):8-10.HAO Weiping,LI Qionghui,ZHAO Yinong.Current significance of electricity elasticity coefficient in China[J].Electric Power,2003,36(5):8-10.
[3]国家发展改革委宏观经济研究院能源研究所课题组.我国电力消费弹性系数分析[J].宏观经济研究,2004(1):38.Energy Research Institute,Academic of Macroeconomic Research,NDRC.Analysis on China's electricity elasticity coefficient[J].Macroeconomics,2004(1):38.
[4]姜绍俊.电力与经济发展的相关性分析[J].电力技术经济,2006,18(5):11-13.JIANG Shaojun.Correlation analysis of economy and electricity growth[J].Electric Power Technologic Economics,2006,18(5):11-13.
[5]单葆国,胡兆光.国民经济用电单耗变化解析[J].中国电力,2007,40(9):11-14.SHAN Baoguo,HU Zhaoguang.Analysis on the variation of electricity intensity in China[J].Electric Power,2007,40(9):11-14.
[6]李江涛.今夏“火热”用电数据折射经济运行稳中向好[N].国家电网报,2016-10-18(005).
[7]胡兆光,单葆国,等.电力供需模拟实验:基于智能工程的软科学实验室[M].北京:中国电力出版社,2009.
[8]单葆国,孙祥栋,李江涛,等.经济新常态下中国电力需求增长研判[J].中国电力,2017,50(1):19-24.SHAN Baoguo,SUN Xiangdong,LI Jiangtao,et al.Analysis on China's electricity demand growth under the new economic normal[J].Electric Power,2017,50(1):19-24.
[9]单葆国,韩新阳,谭显东,等.中国“十三五”及中长期电力需求研究[J].中国电力,2015,48(1):6-10.SHAN Baoguo,HAN Xinyang,TAN Xiandong,et al.Research on electricity demand of China during 13th Five-Year Plan and med-term&long-term periods[J].Electric Power,2015,48(1):6-10.