江苏省电力消费与地区经济关系的实证分析
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摘要
为探究电力消费与地区经济关系,运用平稳性检验、协整检验、误差修正模型与Granger因果检验等方法,以1997年至2016年间江苏省全社会用电量与地区生产总值数据为基础,对两组数据间关系进行了数理性探究。研究表明,电力消费会刺激地区经济的增长;在特定条件下,电力消费增长率与经济增长率还会发生背离现象。
In order to explore the electricity consumption and the regional economic relationship, this paper made a mathematical research on the relationship of two sets of data based on the total electricity consumption and the gross domestic product(GDP) of Jiangsu from 1997 to 2016 by using stationary test, cointegration test, error correction model and Granger Causality. The research shows that the power consumption will stimulate the growth of regional economic growth. Under certain conditions, the consumption increase rate will deviate from the economic growth rate.
In order to explore the electricity consumption and the regional economic relationship, this paper made a mathematical research on the relationship of two sets of data based on the total electricity consumption and the gross domestic product(GDP) of Jiangsu from 1997 to 2016 by using stationary test, cointegration test, error correction model and Granger Causality. The research shows that the power consumption will stimulate the growth of regional economic growth. Under certain conditions, the consumption increase rate will deviate from the economic growth rate.
引文
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[2]李新英.电力与经济增长关系计量分析——以新疆为例[J].技术经济与管理研究,2012(1):90-94.
[3]刘生龙,高宇宁,胡鞍钢.电力消费与中国经济增长[J].产业经济研究,2014(3):71-80.
[4]高铁梅,王金明,陈飞,等.计量经济分析方法与建模应用及实例[M].3版.北京:清华大学出版社,2017.
[5]古扎拉蒂,波特.计量经济学基础[M].5版.北京:中国人民大学出版社,2011.