中国收入贫困和多维贫困的静态与动态比较分析
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摘要
研究目标:从家庭层面对中国收入贫困和多维贫困状态进行静态和动态比较,定量分析收入贫困与多维贫困的相互影响。研究方法:利用A-F双界限法测度多维贫困,借助联合概率分布矩阵和动态转移矩阵考察两种贫困的状态转换及其动态偏离情况。研究发现:收入贫困和多维贫困的发生率和状态转换率相差不大,但两种贫困家庭之间却存在巨大的静态和动态偏离,2014年中国两种贫困家庭的重合度仅为17%,2010～2014年在收入脱贫(或入贫)的家庭中同时发生多维脱贫(或入贫)的家庭占比一般不超过20%;深度贫困家庭减贫进展缓慢。研究创新:采用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)提供的面板数据,有助于分析家庭贫困变动的长期效应;按家庭特征对样本进行分组,并比较各组家庭之间两种贫困的静态偏离情况;将两种贫困的偏离分析由静态层面拓展到动态层面。研究价值:为相关理论研究提供更多经验证据,为促进"精准扶贫、精准脱贫"提供数据支撑。
Research Objectives:To comparatively analyze the static and dynamic disparities between income and multidimensional poverty,and to quantitative analyze of the interaction between them.Research Methods:Multidimensional Poverty Index was measured by A-F dual cut-off approach.The state transition and dynamic disparity between income and multidimensional poverty were investigated by joint probability matrix and transfer probability matrix.Research Findings:The head rate and state transition rate between income and multidimensional poverty are similar,but there are huge static and dynamic disparities between this two types of poor families.The overlap of these two types of poor families is only 17%in2014.Among those who rose(or fell)in income dimensional,generally less than 20 percent of families also rose(or fell)in the multi-dimensional during 2010～2014.The alleviating progress of extremely poverty is very slow.Research Innovations:Based on panel data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),the long-term effects of changes in family poverty could be accurately analyzed.According to the grouping of samples by family characteristics,the static disparities of the two types of poverty among families in each group were compared.The disparity analysis between the two types of poverty was extended from static to dynamic.Research Value:To provide more empirical evidence for the relevant theoretical research and to provide data support for anti-poverty.
Research Objectives:To comparatively analyze the static and dynamic disparities between income and multidimensional poverty,and to quantitative analyze of the interaction between them.Research Methods:Multidimensional Poverty Index was measured by A-F dual cut-off approach.The state transition and dynamic disparity between income and multidimensional poverty were investigated by joint probability matrix and transfer probability matrix.Research Findings:The head rate and state transition rate between income and multidimensional poverty are similar,but there are huge static and dynamic disparities between this two types of poor families.The overlap of these two types of poor families is only 17%in2014.Among those who rose(or fell)in income dimensional,generally less than 20 percent of families also rose(or fell)in the multi-dimensional during 2010～2014.The alleviating progress of extremely poverty is very slow.Research Innovations:Based on panel data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),the long-term effects of changes in family poverty could be accurately analyzed.According to the grouping of samples by family characteristics,the static disparities of the two types of poverty among families in each group were compared.The disparity analysis between the two types of poverty was extended from static to dynamic.Research Value:To provide more empirical evidence for the relevant theoretical research and to provide data support for anti-poverty.
引文
[1]Alkire S.,Foster J.E.,Seth S.,Santos M.E.,Roche J.M.,Ballon P.,2015,Multidimensional Poverty Measurement and Analysis[M],Oxford University Press.
[2]Alkire S.,Rocheb J.M.,Vaz A.,2017,Changes Over Time in Multidimensional Poverty:Methodology and Results for 34 Countries[J],World Development,94,232~249.
[3]Baulch B.,Masset E.,2003,Do Monetary and Nonmonetary Indicators Tell the Same Story About Chronic Poverty?A Study of Vietnam in the 1990s[J],World Development,31(3),441~453.
[4]Becker G.S.,1994,Human Capital:A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education[M],University of Chicago Press.
[5]Bourguignon F.,Chakravarty S.,2003,The Measurement of Multidimensional Poverty[J],Journal of Economic Inequality,1(1),25~49.
[6]Cutler D.M.,Lleras-Muney A.,2010,Understanding Differences in Health Behaviors by Education[J],Journal of Health Economics,29(1),1~28.
[7]Dercon S.,Krishnan P.,2000,Vulnerability,Seasonality and Poverty in Ethiopia[J],Journal of Development Studies,36(6),25~53.
[8]Dhongde S.,Haveman R.,2017,Multi-Dimensional Deprivation in the U.S.[J],Social Indicators Research,133(2),477~500.
[9]Foster J.,Greer J.,Thorbecke E.,1984,A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures[J],Econometrica,52(3),761~766.
[10]Foster J.,Greer J.,Thorbecke E.,2010,The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke(FGT)Poverty Measures:25 Years Later[J],Journal of Economic Inequality,8(4),491~524.
[11]Gunther I.,Klasen S.,2009,Measuring Chronic Non-Income Poverty[A],In AddisonT.,Hulme D.,Kanbur R.(eds.),Poverty Dynamics:Interdisciplinary Perspectives[C],Oxford University Press.
[12]Haughton J.H.,Khandker S.,2009,Handbook on Poverty and Inequality[C],Word Bank.
[13]Hulme D.,Shepherd A.,2003,Conceptualizing Chronic Poverty[J],World Development,31(3),403~423.
[14]Ravallion M.,2016,The Economics of Poverty:History,Measurement and Policy[M],Oxford University Press.
[15]Santos M.E.,Villatoro P.,2018,A Multidimensional Poverty Index for Latin America[J],Review of Income and Wealth,64(1),52~82.
[16]Sen A.,1976,Poverty:An Ordinal Approach to Measurement[J],Econometrica,44(2),219~231.
[17]Sen A.,2000,A Decade of Human Development[J],Journal of Human Development,1(1),17~23.
[18]Tran V.Q.,Alkire S.,Klasen S.,2015,Static and Dynamic Disparities between Monetary and Multidimensional Poverty:Measurement Evidence from Vietnam[A],In Garner T.L.,Short K.S.(eds.),Measurement of Poverty,Deprivation,and Economic Mobility[C],Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
[19]冯贺霞、王小林、夏庆杰:《收入贫困与多维贫困关系分析》[J],《劳动经济研究》2015年第6期。
[20]王春超、叶琴:《中国农民工多维贫困的演进——基于收入与教育维度的考察》[J],《经济研究》2014年第12期。
[21]王小林:《贫困测量:理论与方法》[M],社会科学文献出版社,2012年。
[22]张全红、周强:《中国贫困测度的多维方法和实证应用》[J],《中国软科学》2015年第7期。
[23]朱梦冰、李实:《精准扶贫重在精准识别贫困人口——农村低保政策的瞄准效果分析》[J],《中国社会科学》2017年第9期。
(1)本文获得国家社会科学基金项目“农民合作社社会资本的多维减贫效应及政策研究”(16BGL125)和湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究重大项目“湖北省创新精准扶贫工作机制研究”(16ZD031)的资助。通讯作者:张全红。
(2)基本需求包括食物和非食物两部分。食物需求通常按每人每天摄入2100卡路里热量计算,并按照市场价格折算成食物贫困线,一般认为穷人的恩格尔系数在60%以上,衣着和住房等非食物需求就根据食物贫困线和60%的恩格尔系数进行估算,将食物贫困线和非食物贫困线加总便可得到用货币表示的收入或消费贫困线。
(3)纳克斯于1953年提出“贫困恶性循环论”,纳尔逊于1956年提出“低水平均衡陷阱”理论,缪尔达尔于1957年提出“循环累积因果论”,均属于“贫困陷阱”理论。
(1)收入贫困与多维贫困的重合度=收入贫困且多维贫困人口/(收入贫困人口+多维贫困人口-收入贫困且多维贫困人口)。如果两者完全重合,则重合度为1,完全偏离,则重合度为0。
(1)BMI(身体质量指数)是原用于公众健康研究的指标,计算方法为BMI=体重(千克)÷身高(米)2。
(2)包含了小学中途辍学(未读满六年)和文盲(没有上过学)。
(1)CFPS由北京大学“985”项目资助、北京大学中国社会科学调查中心执行。
(1)Cramer’s V值是列联表卡方检验(Chi square test)拒绝虚无假设后计算的一个指标,这个指标主要目的在衡量2个类别变量间的相关程度,即衡量变量间相关系数强度的指标。相比其他统计系数,如Pearson相关系数,Cramer’s V值更加适合于分析2个列联表中的2个相关系数强度的比较。
(1)向上转换是指家庭状态从深度贫困转换为轻度贫困或非贫困,以及从轻度贫困转换为非贫困。
(2)向下转换是指家庭类型从非贫困转换为轻度贫困或深度贫困,以及从轻度贫困转换为深度贫困。
(1)本文中“入贫”指非贫困人口陷入贫困,与“返贫”的含义不尽相同,国内常用的“返贫”通常指贫困人口脱贫后再次陷入贫困。
[2]Alkire S.,Rocheb J.M.,Vaz A.,2017,Changes Over Time in Multidimensional Poverty:Methodology and Results for 34 Countries[J],World Development,94,232~249.
[3]Baulch B.,Masset E.,2003,Do Monetary and Nonmonetary Indicators Tell the Same Story About Chronic Poverty?A Study of Vietnam in the 1990s[J],World Development,31(3),441~453.
[4]Becker G.S.,1994,Human Capital:A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education[M],University of Chicago Press.
[5]Bourguignon F.,Chakravarty S.,2003,The Measurement of Multidimensional Poverty[J],Journal of Economic Inequality,1(1),25~49.
[6]Cutler D.M.,Lleras-Muney A.,2010,Understanding Differences in Health Behaviors by Education[J],Journal of Health Economics,29(1),1~28.
[7]Dercon S.,Krishnan P.,2000,Vulnerability,Seasonality and Poverty in Ethiopia[J],Journal of Development Studies,36(6),25~53.
[8]Dhongde S.,Haveman R.,2017,Multi-Dimensional Deprivation in the U.S.[J],Social Indicators Research,133(2),477~500.
[9]Foster J.,Greer J.,Thorbecke E.,1984,A Class of Decomposable Poverty Measures[J],Econometrica,52(3),761~766.
[10]Foster J.,Greer J.,Thorbecke E.,2010,The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke(FGT)Poverty Measures:25 Years Later[J],Journal of Economic Inequality,8(4),491~524.
[11]Gunther I.,Klasen S.,2009,Measuring Chronic Non-Income Poverty[A],In AddisonT.,Hulme D.,Kanbur R.(eds.),Poverty Dynamics:Interdisciplinary Perspectives[C],Oxford University Press.
[12]Haughton J.H.,Khandker S.,2009,Handbook on Poverty and Inequality[C],Word Bank.
[13]Hulme D.,Shepherd A.,2003,Conceptualizing Chronic Poverty[J],World Development,31(3),403~423.
[14]Ravallion M.,2016,The Economics of Poverty:History,Measurement and Policy[M],Oxford University Press.
[15]Santos M.E.,Villatoro P.,2018,A Multidimensional Poverty Index for Latin America[J],Review of Income and Wealth,64(1),52~82.
[16]Sen A.,1976,Poverty:An Ordinal Approach to Measurement[J],Econometrica,44(2),219~231.
[17]Sen A.,2000,A Decade of Human Development[J],Journal of Human Development,1(1),17~23.
[18]Tran V.Q.,Alkire S.,Klasen S.,2015,Static and Dynamic Disparities between Monetary and Multidimensional Poverty:Measurement Evidence from Vietnam[A],In Garner T.L.,Short K.S.(eds.),Measurement of Poverty,Deprivation,and Economic Mobility[C],Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
[19]冯贺霞、王小林、夏庆杰:《收入贫困与多维贫困关系分析》[J],《劳动经济研究》2015年第6期。
[20]王春超、叶琴:《中国农民工多维贫困的演进——基于收入与教育维度的考察》[J],《经济研究》2014年第12期。
[21]王小林:《贫困测量:理论与方法》[M],社会科学文献出版社,2012年。
[22]张全红、周强:《中国贫困测度的多维方法和实证应用》[J],《中国软科学》2015年第7期。
[23]朱梦冰、李实:《精准扶贫重在精准识别贫困人口——农村低保政策的瞄准效果分析》[J],《中国社会科学》2017年第9期。
(1)本文获得国家社会科学基金项目“农民合作社社会资本的多维减贫效应及政策研究”(16BGL125)和湖北省教育厅哲学社会科学研究重大项目“湖北省创新精准扶贫工作机制研究”(16ZD031)的资助。通讯作者:张全红。
(2)基本需求包括食物和非食物两部分。食物需求通常按每人每天摄入2100卡路里热量计算,并按照市场价格折算成食物贫困线,一般认为穷人的恩格尔系数在60%以上,衣着和住房等非食物需求就根据食物贫困线和60%的恩格尔系数进行估算,将食物贫困线和非食物贫困线加总便可得到用货币表示的收入或消费贫困线。
(3)纳克斯于1953年提出“贫困恶性循环论”,纳尔逊于1956年提出“低水平均衡陷阱”理论,缪尔达尔于1957年提出“循环累积因果论”,均属于“贫困陷阱”理论。
(1)收入贫困与多维贫困的重合度=收入贫困且多维贫困人口/(收入贫困人口+多维贫困人口-收入贫困且多维贫困人口)。如果两者完全重合,则重合度为1,完全偏离,则重合度为0。
(1)BMI(身体质量指数)是原用于公众健康研究的指标,计算方法为BMI=体重(千克)÷身高(米)2。
(2)包含了小学中途辍学(未读满六年)和文盲(没有上过学)。
(1)CFPS由北京大学“985”项目资助、北京大学中国社会科学调查中心执行。
(1)Cramer’s V值是列联表卡方检验(Chi square test)拒绝虚无假设后计算的一个指标,这个指标主要目的在衡量2个类别变量间的相关程度,即衡量变量间相关系数强度的指标。相比其他统计系数,如Pearson相关系数,Cramer’s V值更加适合于分析2个列联表中的2个相关系数强度的比较。
(1)向上转换是指家庭状态从深度贫困转换为轻度贫困或非贫困,以及从轻度贫困转换为非贫困。
(2)向下转换是指家庭类型从非贫困转换为轻度贫困或深度贫困,以及从轻度贫困转换为深度贫困。
(1)本文中“入贫”指非贫困人口陷入贫困,与“返贫”的含义不尽相同,国内常用的“返贫”通常指贫困人口脱贫后再次陷入贫困。