气候变化对河西走廊主要农作物的影响
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摘要
利用1991—2014年甘肃省河西走廊5市的气温、降水数据及农作物物候期和产量资料,运用线性趋势估计法、5 a滑动平移法、灰色关联度分析法和皮尔逊相关系数法分析了河西走廊24年来的气候变化特征、农作物物候和产量的变化特征及二者之间的联系。结果表明:(1)河西走廊近24年来春季变暖变干,气温气候倾向率为0.69℃/10 a、降水为6.63 mm/10a,夏秋季节变暖变湿,气温气候倾向率为0.49℃/10 a、降水为16.83 mm/10 a,全年表现为显著变暖,降水量增加,气温气候倾向率为0.43℃/10 a、降水为59.28 mm/10 a;(2)春小麦播种期呈略微提前趋势,玉米播种期呈推后趋势,春小麦和玉米的出苗期、生长季呈缩短趋势,成熟期呈提前趋势。春小麦和玉米播种期、出苗期、成熟期、生长季与气温呈负相关,播种期与降水量呈二次曲线关系,出苗期与降水量呈负相关,成熟期、生长季与降水量呈正相关;(3)河西走廊年小麦产量总体呈显著下降趋势,嘉峪关、金昌、武威、张掖和酒泉每10年分别减少0.5×10~4 t、0.24×10~4 t、10.94×10~4 t、10.72×10~4 t和13.85×10~4 t;年玉米产量酒泉呈略微减少趋势,每10年减少0.89×10~4 t,嘉峪关、金昌、武威和张掖总体呈增加趋势,每10年分别增加0.11×10~4 t、5.22×10~4 t、24.74×10~4 t和17.27×10~4 t;河西走廊的小麦相对气象产量正负变化比较频繁,玉米相对气象产量负值变化比较明显;嘉峪关、张掖、武威小麦产量和酒泉、金昌玉米产量受气温影响略大,关联系数分别为0.694 8、0.724 6、0.748 6和0.734 4、0.683 6,酒泉、金昌小麦产量和嘉峪关、张掖、武威玉米产量受降水量影响较大,关联系数分别为0.784 9、0.739 1和0.653 7、0.645 2、0.734 6;(4)社会经济因素对农作物的影响逐渐变大,国家政策的大力实施、农业科学技术的发展和推广以及河西走廊人民的种植意愿对农作物产生了很大的影响。该研究对农业应对气候变化,合理利用气候资源,推广生长季较短的新品种作物,提高农作物的生产潜力具有较大的意义。
Based on the data of air temperature, precipitation amount, crop phenology and crop yield in 5 cities of the Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province from 1991 to 2014, the climate characteristics, main crops phenology and yield change characteristics as well as their relationship were analyzed using the linear trend estimation method, the 5-year moving average method, the gray relevancy method and the Pearson correlation coefficient method. Results showed that:(1) A significant warming and wetting trend could be found in the Hexi Corridor during the past 24 years, the climate inclination rates were 0.43 ℃/10 a of temperature and 59.28 mm/10 a of precipitation. It turned warmer and drier in spring, the climate inclination rates were 0.69 ℃/10 a of temperature and 6.63 mm/10 a of precipitation. It turned warmer and more humid in summer/autumn, the climate inclination rates were 0.49 ℃/10 a of temperature and 16.83 mm/10 a of precipitation.(2) The sowing period of spring wheat was slightly shifted to a earlier date. The sowing period of maize showed a weak deferred trend. The mature period of spring wheat and maize showed a slightly advanced trend. The emergence period and growing season of spring wheat and maize showed a curtate trend. The seeding time, emergence period, mature period and the growing season of spring wheat and maize negatively correlated with air temperature. The seeding time and precipitation amount showed a relationship of quadratic curve. The emergence period negatively correlated with precipitation amount. The mature period and growing season positively correlated with precipitation amount.(3) The annual yield of wheat in the Hexi Corridor showed a significantly downward trend, and those in Jiayuguan, Jinchang, Wuwei, Zhangye and Jiuquan reduced by 0.5×10~4 t, 0.24×10~4 t, 10.94×10~4 t, 10.72×10~4 t and 13.85×10~4 t every 10 years. Annual maize yield in Jiuquan showed a slightly decreasing trend, and reduced by 0.89×10~4 t, and that in Jiayuguan, Jinchang, Wuwei and Zhangye generally showed an increasing trend, and reduced by 0.11×10~4 t, 5.22×10~4 t, 24.74×10~4 and 17.27×10~4 t respectively; The positive and negative alternations of relative meteorological yield of wheat in the Hexi Corridor were frequent, and the negative change of relative meteorological yield of maize was obvious. The wheat yield in Jiayuguan, Zhangye and Wuwei and the maize yield in Jiuquan and Jinchang were more affected by air temperature, the correlation coefficients were 0.694 8, 0.724 6, 0.748 6 and 0.734 4, 0.683 6; The wheat yield in Jiuquan and Jinchang and the maize yield in Jiayuguan, Zhangye and Wuwei were more affected by precipitation, the correlation coefficients were 0.784 9, 0.739 1 and 0.653 7, 0.645 2, 0.734 6. And(4) the impact of socio-economic factors on crops has been increased in recent years. The vigorous implementation of the national policy, the development and popularization of agricultural science and technology, and the planting willingness of the people in the Hexi Corridor have a great influence on crops. It is of great significance for agriculture to cope with climate change, make a rational use of climate resources, promote new crop varieties with shorter growing season and increase the potential productivity of crops.
Based on the data of air temperature, precipitation amount, crop phenology and crop yield in 5 cities of the Hexi Corridor in Gansu Province from 1991 to 2014, the climate characteristics, main crops phenology and yield change characteristics as well as their relationship were analyzed using the linear trend estimation method, the 5-year moving average method, the gray relevancy method and the Pearson correlation coefficient method. Results showed that:(1) A significant warming and wetting trend could be found in the Hexi Corridor during the past 24 years, the climate inclination rates were 0.43 ℃/10 a of temperature and 59.28 mm/10 a of precipitation. It turned warmer and drier in spring, the climate inclination rates were 0.69 ℃/10 a of temperature and 6.63 mm/10 a of precipitation. It turned warmer and more humid in summer/autumn, the climate inclination rates were 0.49 ℃/10 a of temperature and 16.83 mm/10 a of precipitation.(2) The sowing period of spring wheat was slightly shifted to a earlier date. The sowing period of maize showed a weak deferred trend. The mature period of spring wheat and maize showed a slightly advanced trend. The emergence period and growing season of spring wheat and maize showed a curtate trend. The seeding time, emergence period, mature period and the growing season of spring wheat and maize negatively correlated with air temperature. The seeding time and precipitation amount showed a relationship of quadratic curve. The emergence period negatively correlated with precipitation amount. The mature period and growing season positively correlated with precipitation amount.(3) The annual yield of wheat in the Hexi Corridor showed a significantly downward trend, and those in Jiayuguan, Jinchang, Wuwei, Zhangye and Jiuquan reduced by 0.5×10~4 t, 0.24×10~4 t, 10.94×10~4 t, 10.72×10~4 t and 13.85×10~4 t every 10 years. Annual maize yield in Jiuquan showed a slightly decreasing trend, and reduced by 0.89×10~4 t, and that in Jiayuguan, Jinchang, Wuwei and Zhangye generally showed an increasing trend, and reduced by 0.11×10~4 t, 5.22×10~4 t, 24.74×10~4 and 17.27×10~4 t respectively; The positive and negative alternations of relative meteorological yield of wheat in the Hexi Corridor were frequent, and the negative change of relative meteorological yield of maize was obvious. The wheat yield in Jiayuguan, Zhangye and Wuwei and the maize yield in Jiuquan and Jinchang were more affected by air temperature, the correlation coefficients were 0.694 8, 0.724 6, 0.748 6 and 0.734 4, 0.683 6; The wheat yield in Jiuquan and Jinchang and the maize yield in Jiayuguan, Zhangye and Wuwei were more affected by precipitation, the correlation coefficients were 0.784 9, 0.739 1 and 0.653 7, 0.645 2, 0.734 6. And(4) the impact of socio-economic factors on crops has been increased in recent years. The vigorous implementation of the national policy, the development and popularization of agricultural science and technology, and the planting willingness of the people in the Hexi Corridor have a great influence on crops. It is of great significance for agriculture to cope with climate change, make a rational use of climate resources, promote new crop varieties with shorter growing season and increase the potential productivity of crops.
引文
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曹玲,邓振镛,窦永祥,等.2008.气候变暖对河西走廊绿洲灌区玉米产量影响及对策研究[J].西北植物学报,25(5):1043-1048.
陈鹏飞,于延春,杨飞,等.2013.气候变化对鲁西北平原冬小麦产量的影响及对策[J].自然资源学报,28(2):211-219.
陈学君,杨宗斌,甘新文.2008.张掖市玉米制种的现状及发展对策研究[J].中国种业,(9):12-14.
陈远翔.2016.洱源县农作物产量对气候变化响应的敏感性分析[J].环境科学导刊,35(2):16-20.
邓振镛,王强,张强,等.2010.中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施[J].生态学报,30(22):6278-6288.
甘肃省张掖农业区划办公室.1987.甘肃省张掖农业区划汇编[G].甘肃省张掖农业区划办公室:1-22.
高贵生,宋理明,马宗泰.2013.青海省降尘量时空分布及其影响因素分析[J].中国沙漠,33(4):1124-1130.
郭连云,赵年武,田辉春.2010.气象影响因子对高寒针茅草原牧草产量的影响[J].草业科学,27(10):79-84.
韩迎春,王国平,范正义,等.2013.主要气候因子对麦棉两熟棉花产量的影响[J].生态学报,33(10):3185-3191.
胡实,莫兴国,林忠辉.2014.气候变化对海河流域主要作物物候和产量影响[J].地理研究,33(1):3-12.
姬兴杰,朱业玉,刘晓迎,等.2011.气候变化对北方冬麦区冬小麦生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,32(4):576-581.
姜晓清,周丽,范君,等.2015.气候变化对宜宾市主要粮食产量的影响分析[J].中国农学通报,31(17):241-245.
雷水玲.2001.全球气候变化对宁夏春小麦生长和产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,22(2):33-40.
李曼,杨建平,谭春萍,等.2014.疏勒河流域双塔灌区种植结构变化及其原因[J].中国沙漠,34(5):1417-142.
李曼,杨建平,杨圆,等.2015.疏勒河双塔灌区农业种植结构调整优化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,29(2):126-131.
李向岭,李树君,李欣,等.2014.甘肃省张掖市玉米制种产业发展探讨[J].中国种业,(9):14-17.
刘明春,马兴祥,张惠玲,等.2001.甘肃武威市作物气候--经济优势分析及种植结构调整方案[J].南京气象学院学报,24(3):423-428.
刘颖杰,林而达.2007.气候变暖对中国不同地区农业的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,3(4):229-233.
秦大河.2014.IPCC-第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,10(1):1-6
宋连春,杨兴国,韩永翔,等.2006.甘肃气象灾害与气候变化问题的初步研究[J].干旱气象,24(2):63-69.
宋学林.2013.张掖市玉米制种产业发展探析[J].中国种业,(1):27-29.
孙擎,杨再强,高丽娜,等.2014.低温对早稻幼穗分化期叶片生理特性的影响及其与产量的关系[J].中国生态农业学报,22(11):1326-1333.
唐国平,李秀彬,Fischer G,等.2000.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响[J].地理学报,55(2):129-138.
汪燕芬,田俊明,詹和明,等.2008.云南省玉米杂交种产量和产量构成因素的灰色关联度分析[J].西南农业学报,21(4):925-928.
王晓玲,董志勤.2006.甘肃省酒泉市玉米制种产业存在的问题及对策[J].中国种业,(11):19-21.
王铮,郑一萍.2001.全球变化对中国粮食安全的影响分析[J].地理研究,20(3):282-289.
尉栋.2013.临泽县建设国家级玉米制种核心示范基地的思考[J].中国种业,(2):32-33.
徐建华.2011.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社:339.
徐雨晴,苗秋菊,沈永平.2009.2008年:气候持续变暖,极端事件频发[J].气候变化研究进展,5(1):56-60.
殷雪莲,郝志毅,魏锋,等.2008.气候变暖对河西走廊中部农业的影响[J].干旱气象,26(2):90-94.
张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,等.2006.气候变化对我国华北地区冬小麦发育和产量的影响[J].应用生态学报,17(7):1179-1184.
张洁,白青华,马鸿勇.2013.气候变化对河西走廊中部地区主要农作物的影响[J].干旱气象,31(2):303-308.
张明捷,王运行,赵桂芳,等.2009.濮阳冬小麦生育期气候变化及其对小麦产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,30(2):223-229.
周玲,郭胜利,张涛,等.2012.洪泽湖区域气候变化与水位的灰色关联度分析[J].环境科学与技术,35(2):25-29,33.
朱新玉,张竟竟,赵文亮,等.2012.河南省商丘市气候变化对玉米产量的影响[J].湖北农业科学,51(11):2198-2200.
BATTISTI D S,NAYLOR R L.2009.Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat[J].Science,323(5911):240-244.
TUBIELLO F N,FISCHER G.2007.Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture:global and regional effects of mitigation,2000-2080[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,74(7):1030-1056.
WANG F T.2001.Some advances in climate warming impact research in china since 1990[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,15(4):498-508.
曹玲,邓振镛,窦永祥,等.2008.气候变暖对河西走廊绿洲灌区玉米产量影响及对策研究[J].西北植物学报,25(5):1043-1048.
陈鹏飞,于延春,杨飞,等.2013.气候变化对鲁西北平原冬小麦产量的影响及对策[J].自然资源学报,28(2):211-219.
陈学君,杨宗斌,甘新文.2008.张掖市玉米制种的现状及发展对策研究[J].中国种业,(9):12-14.
陈远翔.2016.洱源县农作物产量对气候变化响应的敏感性分析[J].环境科学导刊,35(2):16-20.
邓振镛,王强,张强,等.2010.中国北方气候暖干化对粮食作物的影响及应对措施[J].生态学报,30(22):6278-6288.
甘肃省张掖农业区划办公室.1987.甘肃省张掖农业区划汇编[G].甘肃省张掖农业区划办公室:1-22.
高贵生,宋理明,马宗泰.2013.青海省降尘量时空分布及其影响因素分析[J].中国沙漠,33(4):1124-1130.
郭连云,赵年武,田辉春.2010.气象影响因子对高寒针茅草原牧草产量的影响[J].草业科学,27(10):79-84.
韩迎春,王国平,范正义,等.2013.主要气候因子对麦棉两熟棉花产量的影响[J].生态学报,33(10):3185-3191.
胡实,莫兴国,林忠辉.2014.气候变化对海河流域主要作物物候和产量影响[J].地理研究,33(1):3-12.
姬兴杰,朱业玉,刘晓迎,等.2011.气候变化对北方冬麦区冬小麦生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,32(4):576-581.
姜晓清,周丽,范君,等.2015.气候变化对宜宾市主要粮食产量的影响分析[J].中国农学通报,31(17):241-245.
雷水玲.2001.全球气候变化对宁夏春小麦生长和产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,22(2):33-40.
李曼,杨建平,谭春萍,等.2014.疏勒河流域双塔灌区种植结构变化及其原因[J].中国沙漠,34(5):1417-142.
李曼,杨建平,杨圆,等.2015.疏勒河双塔灌区农业种植结构调整优化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,29(2):126-131.
李向岭,李树君,李欣,等.2014.甘肃省张掖市玉米制种产业发展探讨[J].中国种业,(9):14-17.
刘明春,马兴祥,张惠玲,等.2001.甘肃武威市作物气候--经济优势分析及种植结构调整方案[J].南京气象学院学报,24(3):423-428.
刘颖杰,林而达.2007.气候变暖对中国不同地区农业的影响[J].气候变化研究进展,3(4):229-233.
秦大河.2014.IPCC-第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,10(1):1-6
宋连春,杨兴国,韩永翔,等.2006.甘肃气象灾害与气候变化问题的初步研究[J].干旱气象,24(2):63-69.
宋学林.2013.张掖市玉米制种产业发展探析[J].中国种业,(1):27-29.
孙擎,杨再强,高丽娜,等.2014.低温对早稻幼穗分化期叶片生理特性的影响及其与产量的关系[J].中国生态农业学报,22(11):1326-1333.
唐国平,李秀彬,Fischer G,等.2000.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响[J].地理学报,55(2):129-138.
汪燕芬,田俊明,詹和明,等.2008.云南省玉米杂交种产量和产量构成因素的灰色关联度分析[J].西南农业学报,21(4):925-928.
王晓玲,董志勤.2006.甘肃省酒泉市玉米制种产业存在的问题及对策[J].中国种业,(11):19-21.
王铮,郑一萍.2001.全球变化对中国粮食安全的影响分析[J].地理研究,20(3):282-289.
尉栋.2013.临泽县建设国家级玉米制种核心示范基地的思考[J].中国种业,(2):32-33.
徐建华.2011.现代地理学中的数学方法[M].北京:高等教育出版社:339.
徐雨晴,苗秋菊,沈永平.2009.2008年:气候持续变暖,极端事件频发[J].气候变化研究进展,5(1):56-60.
殷雪莲,郝志毅,魏锋,等.2008.气候变暖对河西走廊中部农业的影响[J].干旱气象,26(2):90-94.
张建平,赵艳霞,王春乙,等.2006.气候变化对我国华北地区冬小麦发育和产量的影响[J].应用生态学报,17(7):1179-1184.
张洁,白青华,马鸿勇.2013.气候变化对河西走廊中部地区主要农作物的影响[J].干旱气象,31(2):303-308.
张明捷,王运行,赵桂芳,等.2009.濮阳冬小麦生育期气候变化及其对小麦产量的影响[J].中国农业气象,30(2):223-229.
周玲,郭胜利,张涛,等.2012.洪泽湖区域气候变化与水位的灰色关联度分析[J].环境科学与技术,35(2):25-29,33.
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