1961—2015年寿阳县气候变化特征及对玉米生产的影响
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摘要
为了进一步认识全球气候变暖背景下寿阳县气温、降水响应及变化情况,合理利用气候资源,保障粮食安全生产,依据寿阳县1961—2015年气温、降水量逐月实测资料,运用线性趋势、距平分析、5年滑动平均、Mann-Kendall非参数检验和滑动t检验等方法,分析了寿阳县气温、降水量的年际和季节变化趋势和突变特征。结果表明:近55年来寿阳县年平均气温以0.15℃/10 a速率升温,而降水量则以-9.85 mm/10 a速率减少,1990年和1967年分别是年气温和降水量的突变年。四季气温呈上升趋势,降水量呈减少趋势,气温冬季增幅最显著,夏季不明显,降水量夏季减幅最大,春季最小,1996年、1993年和1986年分别是春、秋和冬季平均气温突变年,1968年是秋季降水量突变年。气温升高、降水量减少对寿阳县玉米生产的影响利弊共存。
The paper aims to study the variation of temperature and precipitation in Shouyang under thebackground of global climate warming, and to rationally utilize climate resources and guarantee food safety.Based on the data of annual temperature and monthly precipitation in Shouyang from 1961 to 2015, the authorsanalyzed the interannual and seasonal variability and mutation characteristics of temperature and precipitationin Shouyang by the methods of linear trend, anomaly analysis, 5-year sliding average method, the M-Kmutation test and sliding t test. The results showed that: the annual average temperature in Shouyang in nearly55 years showed an increasing trend with the rate of 0.15℃/10 a; the annual average precipitation had adecreasing trend with the rate of-9.85 mm/10 a, the mutation points of the temperature and precipitation wereseparately in 1990 and 1967; the seasonal average temperature had an increasing trend, and the seasonalprecipitation had a descending trend; the temperature raised most in winter, and that in summer was notobvious; the precipitation descended most in summer, and that in spring was the minimum. The mutations ofaverage temperature in spring, autumn and winter occurred in 1996, 1993 and 1986, respectively, and theprecipitation in autumn occurred in 1968. The increase of temperature and the decrease of precipitation hadboth advantages and disadvantages in corn production.
The paper aims to study the variation of temperature and precipitation in Shouyang under thebackground of global climate warming, and to rationally utilize climate resources and guarantee food safety.Based on the data of annual temperature and monthly precipitation in Shouyang from 1961 to 2015, the authorsanalyzed the interannual and seasonal variability and mutation characteristics of temperature and precipitationin Shouyang by the methods of linear trend, anomaly analysis, 5-year sliding average method, the M-Kmutation test and sliding t test. The results showed that: the annual average temperature in Shouyang in nearly55 years showed an increasing trend with the rate of 0.15℃/10 a; the annual average precipitation had adecreasing trend with the rate of-9.85 mm/10 a, the mutation points of the temperature and precipitation wereseparately in 1990 and 1967; the seasonal average temperature had an increasing trend, and the seasonalprecipitation had a descending trend; the temperature raised most in winter, and that in summer was notobvious; the precipitation descended most in summer, and that in spring was the minimum. The mutations ofaverage temperature in spring, autumn and winter occurred in 1996, 1993 and 1986, respectively, and theprecipitation in autumn occurred in 1968. The increase of temperature and the decrease of precipitation hadboth advantages and disadvantages in corn production.
引文
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[18]郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1):1-11.
[19]张祖光,郝卫平,李昊儒,等.山西省春玉米生育期干旱特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(6):754-761.
[20]钱锦霞,赵桂香,李芬,等.晋中市近40年气候变化特征及其对玉米生产的影响[J].中国农业气象,2006,27(2):125-129.
[21]张卉,郭慕萍,赵双巧,等.1960—2008年山西省气温变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2012,27(2):16-21.
[2]任国玉,郭军,徐铭志,等.近50年中国地面气候变化基本特征[J].气象学报,2005,63(6):942-953.
[3]张洁,白青华,马鸿,等.气候变化对河西走廊中部地区主要农作物的影响[J].干旱气象,2013,31(2):303-308.
[4]居辉,熊伟,许吟隆,等.气候变化对我国小麦产量的影响[J].作物学报,2005,31(10):1340-1343.
[5]余卫东,赵国强,陈怀亮.气候变化对河南省主要农作物生育期的影响[J].中国农业气象,2007,28(1):9-12.
[6]王培娟,梁宏,李祎君,等.气候变暖对东北三省春玉米生育期及种植布局的影响[J].资源科学,2011,33(10):1976-1983.
[7]段金省,牛国强.气候变化对陇东塬区玉米播种期的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2007,25(2):235-238.
[8]梁玉莲,韩明臣,白龙,等.中国近30年农业气候资源时空变化特征[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(4):259-267.
[9]苗爱梅,武捷,贾利冬,等.1958—2008年山西气温变化的特征及趋势研究[J].地球科学进展,2010,25(3):264-272.
[10]杜顺义,王志伟,郭慕萍,等.气候变暖对山西农业生产及粮食安全的影响[J].中国农业气象,2009,30(增1):29-32.
[11]张祎玮,李芬,郝智文,等.1958—2013年山西降水的季节变化及统计特征[J].中国农学通报,2015,31(16):250-258.
[12]刘文平,郭幕萍,安炜,等.气候变化对山西冬小麦种植的影响[J].干旱区资源与环境,2009,23(11):88-92.
[13]王正旺,刘小卫,赵秀敏.山西东南部气候变暖与某些灾害天气的演变特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2011,27(23):269-275.
[14]杨淑华,刘洁莉,杜美玲,等.山西北部农业干旱的原因及防御对策[J].中国农学通报.2012,28(23):282-286.
[15]魏凤英.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术[M].北京:气象出版社,1999:32-66.
[16]符淙斌,王强.气候突变的定义和检测方法[J].大气科学,1992,16(4):482-493.
[17]赵桂香,范卫东.近50年山西省霜冻特征分析[J].中国农学通报.2014,30(8):223-231.
[18]郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1):1-11.
[19]张祖光,郝卫平,李昊儒,等.山西省春玉米生育期干旱特征分析[J].中国农业气象,2015,36(6):754-761.
[20]钱锦霞,赵桂香,李芬,等.晋中市近40年气候变化特征及其对玉米生产的影响[J].中国农业气象,2006,27(2):125-129.
[21]张卉,郭慕萍,赵双巧,等.1960—2008年山西省气温变化特征[J].气象与环境学报,2012,27(2):16-21.