沈阳地区春玉米不同生育阶段热量指数变化特征
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摘要
利用模糊数学的隶属函数计算1960—2016年沈阳地区春玉米各生育阶段的热量指数,并对其时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:沈阳地区春玉米抽雄—乳熟期热量指数最高,变异系数最小,其次是出苗—七叶期,播种—出苗期和七叶—拔节期热量指数最低,变异系数最大。近57 a沈阳春玉米除乳熟—成熟期热量指数略有下降,其他生育阶段及全生育期均呈不同程度的升高趋势,其中热量指数最低的播种—出苗期和七叶—拔节期升高趋势较为明显。空间上,除乳熟—成熟期热量指数北部高于南部外,其他发育期北部均不同程度低于南部;热量指数偏低的北部法库、康平地区,近57 a来热量指数升高趋势较明显,特别是七叶—拔节期,未来温度变化对沈阳北部地区该时期春玉米生长影响具有正效应,利于春玉米生长发育。
Based on the daily observation data of spring maize in the whole growth periods and temperature at 5 weather stations in Shenyang of Liaoning Province from 1960 to 2016,the heat index models of spring maize in different growth periods were established according to the membership function in fuzzy mathematics. And on this basis the spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics of spring maize heat index were investigated. The results show that the heat index of spring maize was highest with small fluctuation at the tasseling to milk ripe stage,followed by the seeding to seven-leaf stage,while that was lowest with big fluctuation at the sowing to seeding stage and seven-leaf to jointing stage in Shenyang. The heat index of spring maize at milk ripe to mature stage appeared a slight decreasing trend,while that appeared an increasing trend with different levels in other growth stages in Shenyang from 1960 to 2016,but the change trend at milk ripe to mature stage and seven-leaf to jointing stage passed the significance test with 0. 05 level. The increasing trend was more obvious at the sowing to seeding stage and seven-leaf to jointing stage. Spatially,there was significant difference of heat index in northern and southern Shenyang. The heat index was high in the north and low in the south at milk ripe to mature stage,while that generally increased from the north to the south in other growth stages. The heat index in different growth stages was low in Kangping and Faku of northern Shenyang,but its increasing trend was more obvious,especially at seven-leaf to jointing stage,which had a positive effect on the growth process of spring maize and would be beneficial to the growing of spring maize in the future.
Based on the daily observation data of spring maize in the whole growth periods and temperature at 5 weather stations in Shenyang of Liaoning Province from 1960 to 2016,the heat index models of spring maize in different growth periods were established according to the membership function in fuzzy mathematics. And on this basis the spatio-temporal dynamic characteristics of spring maize heat index were investigated. The results show that the heat index of spring maize was highest with small fluctuation at the tasseling to milk ripe stage,followed by the seeding to seven-leaf stage,while that was lowest with big fluctuation at the sowing to seeding stage and seven-leaf to jointing stage in Shenyang. The heat index of spring maize at milk ripe to mature stage appeared a slight decreasing trend,while that appeared an increasing trend with different levels in other growth stages in Shenyang from 1960 to 2016,but the change trend at milk ripe to mature stage and seven-leaf to jointing stage passed the significance test with 0. 05 level. The increasing trend was more obvious at the sowing to seeding stage and seven-leaf to jointing stage. Spatially,there was significant difference of heat index in northern and southern Shenyang. The heat index was high in the north and low in the south at milk ripe to mature stage,while that generally increased from the north to the south in other growth stages. The heat index in different growth stages was low in Kangping and Faku of northern Shenyang,but its increasing trend was more obvious,especially at seven-leaf to jointing stage,which had a positive effect on the growth process of spring maize and would be beneficial to the growing of spring maize in the future.
引文
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[12]张梦婷,刘志娟,杨晓光,等.气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征[Ⅰ]:东北春玉米延迟型冷害[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(5):599-610.
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[18]刘实,王勇,缪启龙,等.近50年东北地区热量资源变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(3):266-278.
[19]冯滢瑛,李卓仑. 1957—2007年东北地区负积温时空演变[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(6):1529-1537.
[20]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等. 1961—2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[21]慕臣英,纪瑞鹏,周晓宇,等. 1960—2016年沈阳地区霜冻初、终日和无霜冻期时空特征[J].干旱气象,2018,36(2):290-294.
[22]EASTERLING W E. Adapting North American agriculture to climate change in review[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,1996,80:1-53.
[23]WOLF J,VAN DIEPEN C A. Effects of climate change on grain maize yield potential in the European community[J]. Climatic Change,1995,29(3):299-331.
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[25]顾恒岳,艾南山,陈国祯.中国农业气候的动态分析[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),1983,19(4):144-151.
[26]张建军,马晓群,许莹.安徽省一季稻生长气候适宜性评价指标的建立与试用[J].气象,2013,39(1):88-93.
[27]王春玲,李宏宇,曾剑,等.黄土高原半干旱区马铃薯气候适宜度模拟及其时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(5):751-760.
[28]任玉玉,千怀遂.河南省棉花气候适宜度变化趋势分析[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(1):87-93.
[29]马树庆.吉林省农业气候研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1994:34-44.
[30]魏瑞江,宋迎波,王鑫.基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(5):622-627.
[31]冶明珠,郭建平,袁彬,等.气候变化背景下东北地区热量资源及玉米温度适宜度[J].应用生态学报,2012,23(10):2787-2794.
[32]罗怀良,陈国阶.四川洪雅县农业气候适宜度评价[J].农业现代化研究,2001,22(5):279-282.
[33]罗怀良,陈国阶,朱波.农业生态气候适宜度研究进展[J].中国农业资源与区划,2004,25(1):28-32.
[34]郭建平,赵俊芳,徐延红,等.气候变化对农业气候资源有效性的影响评估[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:255-256.
[35]ZHAO J F,GUO J P,XU Y H,et al. Effects of climate change on cultivation patterns of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment,2015,202:178-187.
[2]穆佳,赵俊芳,郭建平.近30年东北春玉米发育期对气候变化的响应[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(6):680-689.
[3]张洁,白青华,马鸿勇.气候变化对河西走廊中部地区主要农作物的影响[J].干旱气象,2013,31(2):303-309.
[4]马兴祥,陈雷,丁文魁,等.灌水量和气温对玉米生物耗水及产量的影响[J].干旱气象,2014,32(4):521-526.
[5]李苗苗,张艳玲.夏玉米开花至灌浆期连阴雨天气对植株性状及产量结构的影响[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(1):88-92.
[6]任丽伟,李喜平.播期对浚单20夏玉米生长状况及产量影响分析[J].气象与环境科学,2013,36(3):28-33.
[7]粱宏,王培娟,章建成,等. 1960—2011年东北地区热量资源时空变化特征[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(3):466-479.
[8]王培娟,粱宏,李君,等.气候变暖对东北三省春玉米发育期及种植布局的影响[J].资源科学,2011,33(10):1976-1983.
[9]阿布都克日木·阿巴司,努尔帕提曼·买买提热依木,帕提曼·阿不都艾尼,等.喀什地区夏玉米发育期与气象因子关系分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,2016,10(4):25-31.
[10]孙凤华,杨素英,陈鹏狮.东北地区近44年的气候变暖干化趋势分析及可能影响[J].生态学杂志,2005,24(7):751-755.
[11]刘志娟,杨晓光,王文峰,等.气候变化背景下我国东北三省农业气候资源变化特征[J].应用生态学报,2009,20(9):2199-2206.
[12]张梦婷,刘志娟,杨晓光,等.气候变化背景下中国主要作物农业气象灾害时空分布特征[Ⅰ]:东北春玉米延迟型冷害[J].中国农业气象,2016,37(5):599-610.
[13]高晓容,王春乙,张继权.气候变暖对东北玉米低温冷害分布规律的影响[J].生态学报,2012,32(7):2110-2118.
[14]赵俊芳,杨晓光,刘志娟.气候变暖对东北三省春玉米严重低温冷害及种植布局的影响[J].生态学报,2009,29(12):6544-6551.
[15]王海梅.高温胁迫对河套灌区玉米生理指标及产量构成要素的影响[J].干旱气象,2015,33(1):59-62.
[16]成林,张广周,陈怀亮.华北冬小麦—夏玉米两熟区干旱特征分析[J].气象与环境科学,2014,37(4):8-13.
[17]李树岩,陈怀亮.河南省夏玉米气候适宜度评价[J].干旱气象,2014,32(5):751-759.
[18]刘实,王勇,缪启龙,等.近50年东北地区热量资源变化特征[J].应用气象学报,2010,21(3):266-278.
[19]冯滢瑛,李卓仑. 1957—2007年东北地区负积温时空演变[J].冰川冻土,2016,38(6):1529-1537.
[20]贺伟,布仁仓,熊在平,等. 1961—2005年东北地区气温和降水变化趋势[J].生态学报,2013,33(2):519-531.
[21]慕臣英,纪瑞鹏,周晓宇,等. 1960—2016年沈阳地区霜冻初、终日和无霜冻期时空特征[J].干旱气象,2018,36(2):290-294.
[22]EASTERLING W E. Adapting North American agriculture to climate change in review[J]. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,1996,80:1-53.
[23]WOLF J,VAN DIEPEN C A. Effects of climate change on grain maize yield potential in the European community[J]. Climatic Change,1995,29(3):299-331.
[24]SOUTHWORTH J,RANDOLPH J C,HABECK M,et al. Consequences of future climate change and changing climate variability on maize yields in the Midwestern United States[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment,2000,82:139-158.
[25]顾恒岳,艾南山,陈国祯.中国农业气候的动态分析[J].兰州大学学报(自然科学版),1983,19(4):144-151.
[26]张建军,马晓群,许莹.安徽省一季稻生长气候适宜性评价指标的建立与试用[J].气象,2013,39(1):88-93.
[27]王春玲,李宏宇,曾剑,等.黄土高原半干旱区马铃薯气候适宜度模拟及其时空变化特征[J].干旱气象,2017,35(5):751-760.
[28]任玉玉,千怀遂.河南省棉花气候适宜度变化趋势分析[J].应用气象学报,2006,17(1):87-93.
[29]马树庆.吉林省农业气候研究[M].北京:气象出版社,1994:34-44.
[30]魏瑞江,宋迎波,王鑫.基于气候适宜度的玉米产量动态预报方法[J].应用气象学报,2009,20(5):622-627.
[31]冶明珠,郭建平,袁彬,等.气候变化背景下东北地区热量资源及玉米温度适宜度[J].应用生态学报,2012,23(10):2787-2794.
[32]罗怀良,陈国阶.四川洪雅县农业气候适宜度评价[J].农业现代化研究,2001,22(5):279-282.
[33]罗怀良,陈国阶,朱波.农业生态气候适宜度研究进展[J].中国农业资源与区划,2004,25(1):28-32.
[34]郭建平,赵俊芳,徐延红,等.气候变化对农业气候资源有效性的影响评估[M].北京:气象出版社,2006:255-256.
[35]ZHAO J F,GUO J P,XU Y H,et al. Effects of climate change on cultivation patterns of spring maize and its climatic suitability in Northeast China[J]. Agriculture Ecosystems and Environment,2015,202:178-187.