基于CCSM4气候模式的未来气候变化对黑河绿洲玉米产量影响预测
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摘要
【目的】探明未来气候变化对黑河绿洲玉米产量的影响。【方法】以研究区广泛种植的玉米为研究对象,基于第5次国际耦合比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5,CMIP5)公布的CCSM4气候预估资料,结合DSSAT-Maize模型模拟RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下21世纪早期、中期、末期玉米产量,分析了气候变化对玉米产量的影响,并提出了适应性措施。【结果】(1)气温是玉米生育期内未来气象因子动态变化幅度最大的,预估到21世纪末,RCP4.5情景下平均增温2.5℃左右,RCP8.5情景下增温更加明显,平均增温7.3℃左右;(2)在无任何适应性措施下,2种情景下玉米潜在产量及生育期长度均呈下降趋势,预估到21世纪末期,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下分别减产15%左右和29%左右;(3)模拟验证得知,气温是影响玉米产量变化的主要因素,并进一步得出该区域玉米最佳年均气温为7℃,对应的生育期平均温度为10.5℃,当超过此温度时,玉米产量与温度呈显著负相关关系;(4)面对气候变化对玉米产量的影响,通过调整玉米种植日期,可降低气候变化对作物产量带来的负效应,模拟得到年均温度从7~12℃每增加1℃对应调整后的最佳播种日期分别为每年的4月10日、4月8日、4月3日、3月30日、3月24日及3月17日左右。【结论】未来气候变化将导致该区域玉米减产,针对未来不同升温程度通过调整播种日期可以在一定程度上降低减产量。
【Objective】Climate change is likely to affect the crop yield, and in this paper we assess its impact on maize yield in Heihe Oasis in Northwest China based on the CCSM4 climate model.【Method】We applied the DSSAT-Maize model to Yingke Irrigation District-a typical irrigation district in the middle reach of the oasis of the Heihe River Watershed in Northwest China-to simulate the impact of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios on maize production in the 21 st century based on the CCSM4 climate provided by CMIP5. We then explored the optimal planting date to alleviate the impact of climate change.【Result】During maize growth period, temperature changed the most. It is estimated that by the end of the 21 st century, the average temperature in the study area is likely to exceed 2.5 ℃under the RCP4.5 scenario and 7.3 ℃ under the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulated results showed that both yield and growth period of the maize will decrease under the two scenarios, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario in which the yield reduction was more remarkable. The maize yield under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios was estimated to reduce by about 15% and 29% respectively. Scenario simulation showed that the temperature was the main factor affecting the maize yield. The optimal average annual temperature for maize growth was around 7 ℃, and the yield of maize was negatively correlated with annual mean temperature when it exceeded 7 ℃, and the average temperature during the maize growth period was 10.5 ℃. We found that adjusting the sowing date could reduce the negative effects of climate change on maize yield. Simulated results from the DSSAT-Maize model showed that under climate change, for each 1 ℃ increase in the mean annual temperature from 7 to 12 ℃, its negative impact on maize yield could be reduced by shifting the sowing date to April 10 th,April 8 th, April 3 th, March 30 th, March 24 th, and March 17 th correspondingly.【Conclusion】Climate change will result in a reduction in maize production, but adjusting the snowing date will reduce its negative effect.
【Objective】Climate change is likely to affect the crop yield, and in this paper we assess its impact on maize yield in Heihe Oasis in Northwest China based on the CCSM4 climate model.【Method】We applied the DSSAT-Maize model to Yingke Irrigation District-a typical irrigation district in the middle reach of the oasis of the Heihe River Watershed in Northwest China-to simulate the impact of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios on maize production in the 21 st century based on the CCSM4 climate provided by CMIP5. We then explored the optimal planting date to alleviate the impact of climate change.【Result】During maize growth period, temperature changed the most. It is estimated that by the end of the 21 st century, the average temperature in the study area is likely to exceed 2.5 ℃under the RCP4.5 scenario and 7.3 ℃ under the RCP8.5 scenario. The simulated results showed that both yield and growth period of the maize will decrease under the two scenarios, especially under the RCP8.5 scenario in which the yield reduction was more remarkable. The maize yield under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios was estimated to reduce by about 15% and 29% respectively. Scenario simulation showed that the temperature was the main factor affecting the maize yield. The optimal average annual temperature for maize growth was around 7 ℃, and the yield of maize was negatively correlated with annual mean temperature when it exceeded 7 ℃, and the average temperature during the maize growth period was 10.5 ℃. We found that adjusting the sowing date could reduce the negative effects of climate change on maize yield. Simulated results from the DSSAT-Maize model showed that under climate change, for each 1 ℃ increase in the mean annual temperature from 7 to 12 ℃, its negative impact on maize yield could be reduced by shifting the sowing date to April 10 th,April 8 th, April 3 th, March 30 th, March 24 th, and March 17 th correspondingly.【Conclusion】Climate change will result in a reduction in maize production, but adjusting the snowing date will reduce its negative effect.
引文
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[10]陈鹏狮,米娜,张玉书,等.气候变化对作物产量影响的研究进展[J].作物杂志,2009(2):5-9.
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[14]JIANG Yiwen,ZHANG Lanhui,ZHANG Baoqing,et al.Modeling irrigation management for water conservation by DSSAT-maize model in arid northwestern China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2016,177:37-45.
[15]孙芳,林而达,李剑萍,等.基于DSSAT模型的宁夏马铃薯生产的适应对策[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(2):127-129.
[16]文新亚,陈阜.基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对不同品种冬小麦产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(2):74-79.
[17]GUO Ruiping,LIN Zhonghui,MO Xingguo,et al.Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain[J].Agricultural Water Management,2010,97(8):1 185-1 194.
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[19]吴晶,罗毅,李佳,等.CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):499-508.
[20]田芝平,姜大膀.不同分辨率CCSM4对东亚和中国气候模拟能力分析[J].大气科学,2013,37(1):171-186.
[21]马红勇,庞成,白青华,等.气候暖湿变化对黑河流域绿洲农业生产的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(1):225-232.
[22]王录仓,高静.基于灌区尺度的聚落与水土资源空间耦合关系研究:以张掖绿洲为例[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(11):1 888-1 901.
[23]石敏俊,王磊,王晓君.黑河分水后张掖市水资源供需格局变化及驱动因素[J].资源科学,2011,33(8):1 489-1 497.
[24]杨绚,汤绪,陈葆德,等.多模式气候预估对华北冬小麦产量模拟的不确定性分析[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(4):627-636.
[25]TAYLOR KARL E,STOUFFER RONALD J,MEEHL GERALD A.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2012,93(4):485-498.
[26]XU Chonghai,XU Ying.The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5(6):527-533.
[27]林而达,刘颖杰.温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展[J].中国农业科学,2008,41(6):1 700-1 707.
[28]陈敏鹏,林而达.代表性浓度路径情景下的全球温室气体减排和对中国的挑战[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):436-442.
[29]HE Jianqiang,DUKES MICHAEL D,HOCHMUTH GEORGE J,et al.Identifying irrigation and nitrogen best management practices for sweet corn production on sandy soils using CERES-Maize model[J].Agricultural Water Management,2012,109(9):61-70.
[30]JAMIESON P D,PORTER J R,WILSON D R.A test of the computer simulation model ARCWHEAT1 on wheat crops grown in New Zealand[J].Field Crops Research,1991,27(4):337-350.
[31]LIU S,YANG J Y,ZHANG X Y,et al.Modelling crop yield,soil water content and soil temperature for a soybean-maize rotation under conventional and conservation tillage systems in Northeast China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2013,123(10):32-44.
[32]钱蕊.气候变化对宁夏水稻影响的模拟研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012.
[33]WANG Jing,WANG Enli,YANG Xiaoguang,et al.Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation[J].Climatic Change,2012,113(3):825-840.
[34]LIU Yuan,WANG Enli,YANG Xiaoguang,et al.Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain,since1980s[J].Global Change Biology,2010,16(8):2 287-2 299.
[35]TAO Fulu,ZHANG Zhao,XIAO Dengpan,et al.Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China,1981-2009[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2014,189/190:91-104.
[36]戴彤,王靖,赫迪,等.基于APSIM模型的气候变化对西南春玉米产量影响研究[J].资源科学,2016,38(1):155-165.
[37]王柳,熊伟,温小乐,等.温度降水等气候因子变化对中国玉米产量的影响[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(21):138-146.
[38]WANG Jing.Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation[J].Climatic Change,2012,113(3/4):825-840.
[39]WANG Jing,WANG Enli,YIN Hong,et al.Declining yield potential and shrinking yield gaps of maize in the North China Plain[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2014,s 195-196(2):89-101.
[40]徐建文,梅旭荣,居辉,等.黄淮海地区冬小麦关键生育期不同灌溉水平对产量影响的模拟[J].作物学报,2014(8):1 485-1 492.
[41]吕露,崔远来,丁俊芝.气候变化对水稻生长影响的模拟分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2012,31(3):48-53.
[42]YAO Fengmei,QIN Pengcheng,ZHANG Jiahua,et al.Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2011,56(8):729-737.
[2]LAL R.Soil Carbon Sequestration Impacts on Global Climate Change and Food Security[J].Science,2004,304(5677):1 623.
[3]GODFRAY H CHARLES J,BEDDINGTON JOHN R,CRUTE IAN R,et al.Food security:the challenge of feeding 9 billion people[J].Science,2010,327(5 967):812.
[4]PINSTRUP-ANDERSEN PER.Food security:definition and measurement[J].Food Security,2009,1(1):5-7.
[5]ADGER N,AGGARWAL P,AGRAWALA S,et al.Climate Change 2007:Impacts,Adaptation and Vulnerability Working Group II Contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report[J].Tidee,2007,19(2):81-111.
[6]DAI Aiguo.Erratum:Drought under global warming:a review[J].Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change,2012,3(1):45-65.
[7]张强,陈丽华,王润元,等.气候变化与西北地区粮食和食品安全[J].干旱气象,2012,30(4):509-513.
[8]韩龙,秦春英,李燕,等.西北玉米对气候变暖的响应[J].山西农业科学,2013,41(10):1 089-1 095.
[9]BHATIA V S,PIARA SINGH,WANI S P,et al.Analysis of potential yields and yield gaps of rainfed soybean in India using CROPGRO-Soybean model[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2008,148(8/9):1 252-1 265.
[10]陈鹏狮,米娜,张玉书,等.气候变化对作物产量影响的研究进展[J].作物杂志,2009(2):5-9.
[11]WIT C T D.Photosynthesis of Leaf Canopies[J].Agriculture Research Reports,1965,663.
[12]LANDSBERG J J,DE Wit C T.Simulation of Assimilation,Respiration and Transpiration of Crops[J].Journal of Ecology,1978,68(1):333.
[13]郭建平.气候变化对中国农业生产的影响研究进展[J].应用气象学报,2015,26(1):1-11.
[14]JIANG Yiwen,ZHANG Lanhui,ZHANG Baoqing,et al.Modeling irrigation management for water conservation by DSSAT-maize model in arid northwestern China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2016,177:37-45.
[15]孙芳,林而达,李剑萍,等.基于DSSAT模型的宁夏马铃薯生产的适应对策[J].中国农业气象,2008,29(2):127-129.
[16]文新亚,陈阜.基于DSSAT模型模拟气候变化对不同品种冬小麦产量潜力的影响[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(2):74-79.
[17]GUO Ruiping,LIN Zhonghui,MO Xingguo,et al.Responses of crop yield and water use efficiency to climate change in the North China Plain[J].Agricultural Water Management,2010,97(8):1 185-1 194.
[18]杨绚,汤绪,陈葆德,等.利用CMIP5多模式集合模拟气候变化对中国小麦产量的影响[J].中国农业科学,2014,47(15):3 009-3 024.
[19]吴晶,罗毅,李佳,等.CMIP5模式对中国西北干旱区模拟能力评价[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):499-508.
[20]田芝平,姜大膀.不同分辨率CCSM4对东亚和中国气候模拟能力分析[J].大气科学,2013,37(1):171-186.
[21]马红勇,庞成,白青华,等.气候暖湿变化对黑河流域绿洲农业生产的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2015,33(1):225-232.
[22]王录仓,高静.基于灌区尺度的聚落与水土资源空间耦合关系研究:以张掖绿洲为例[J].自然资源学报,2014,29(11):1 888-1 901.
[23]石敏俊,王磊,王晓君.黑河分水后张掖市水资源供需格局变化及驱动因素[J].资源科学,2011,33(8):1 489-1 497.
[24]杨绚,汤绪,陈葆德,等.多模式气候预估对华北冬小麦产量模拟的不确定性分析[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(4):627-636.
[25]TAYLOR KARL E,STOUFFER RONALD J,MEEHL GERALD A.An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design[J].Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society,2012,93(4):485-498.
[26]XU Chonghai,XU Ying.The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,2012,5(6):527-533.
[27]林而达,刘颖杰.温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展[J].中国农业科学,2008,41(6):1 700-1 707.
[28]陈敏鹏,林而达.代表性浓度路径情景下的全球温室气体减排和对中国的挑战[J].气候变化研究进展,2010,6(6):436-442.
[29]HE Jianqiang,DUKES MICHAEL D,HOCHMUTH GEORGE J,et al.Identifying irrigation and nitrogen best management practices for sweet corn production on sandy soils using CERES-Maize model[J].Agricultural Water Management,2012,109(9):61-70.
[30]JAMIESON P D,PORTER J R,WILSON D R.A test of the computer simulation model ARCWHEAT1 on wheat crops grown in New Zealand[J].Field Crops Research,1991,27(4):337-350.
[31]LIU S,YANG J Y,ZHANG X Y,et al.Modelling crop yield,soil water content and soil temperature for a soybean-maize rotation under conventional and conservation tillage systems in Northeast China[J].Agricultural Water Management,2013,123(10):32-44.
[32]钱蕊.气候变化对宁夏水稻影响的模拟研究[D].南京:南京信息工程大学,2012.
[33]WANG Jing,WANG Enli,YANG Xiaoguang,et al.Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation[J].Climatic Change,2012,113(3):825-840.
[34]LIU Yuan,WANG Enli,YANG Xiaoguang,et al.Contributions of climatic and crop varietal changes to crop production in the North China Plain,since1980s[J].Global Change Biology,2010,16(8):2 287-2 299.
[35]TAO Fulu,ZHANG Zhao,XIAO Dengpan,et al.Responses of wheat growth and yield to climate change in different climate zones of China,1981-2009[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2014,189/190:91-104.
[36]戴彤,王靖,赫迪,等.基于APSIM模型的气候变化对西南春玉米产量影响研究[J].资源科学,2016,38(1):155-165.
[37]王柳,熊伟,温小乐,等.温度降水等气候因子变化对中国玉米产量的影响[J].农业工程学报,2014,30(21):138-146.
[38]WANG Jing.Increased yield potential of wheat-maize cropping system in the North China Plain by climate change adaptation[J].Climatic Change,2012,113(3/4):825-840.
[39]WANG Jing,WANG Enli,YIN Hong,et al.Declining yield potential and shrinking yield gaps of maize in the North China Plain[J].Agricultural&Forest Meteorology,2014,s 195-196(2):89-101.
[40]徐建文,梅旭荣,居辉,等.黄淮海地区冬小麦关键生育期不同灌溉水平对产量影响的模拟[J].作物学报,2014(8):1 485-1 492.
[41]吕露,崔远来,丁俊芝.气候变化对水稻生长影响的模拟分析[J].灌溉排水学报,2012,31(3):48-53.
[42]YAO Fengmei,QIN Pengcheng,ZHANG Jiahua,et al.Uncertainties in assessing the effect of climate change on agriculture using model simulation and uncertainty processing methods[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,2011,56(8):729-737.