区域性湖泊营养盐基准的适用性研究
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摘要
营养盐基准是湖泊富营养化控制与管理的基础,目前多采用以生态分区为基础的基准确定方法.由于同一生态分区内湖泊间的差异性,对区域性湖泊营养盐基准的适用性需要做进一步的探究.本研究提出了基于响应关系的聚类方法(RCA),包括:(1)基于线性混合效应模型和平均绝对百分误差的层次聚类过程;(2)基于赤池信息准则(AIC)的模型选择过程.基于长时间数据的可得性,选择我国云贵湖区和东部湖区作为对象,采用RCA对叶绿素a与营养盐(总氮和总磷)之间的响应关系进行分析.结果发现,区域性响应关系对应的AIC值均为最高,模型权重均小于0.001,且可能导致生态谬误;表明区域性湖泊营养盐基准不能完全适用于生态分区内全部湖泊.该研究可为我国湖泊营养盐基准的空间尺度确定和浓度限值识别提供参考.
Nutrient criteria is the foundation of lake eutrophication control and management. To assess the applicability of ecoregional nutrient criteria,a relationship-based clustering approach( RCA) is proposed in this study. The RCA includes two major steps,including(1)the hierarchical clustering based on the linear mixed-effect model and the mean absolute percentage error and(2)the model identification based on the Akaike information criterion( AIC).Considering the availability of long-term data,the Yungui Plateau Ecoregion and the Eastern Plain Ecoregion were selected as the study areas. The RCA was then employed to explore the Chlorophyll a-nutrient( total nitrogen and total phosphorus) relationship. The results show that the ecoregional models have the highest AIC values among all the four groups of relationships with Akaike weights of less than 0.001. The ecoregional relationship may result in the ecological fallacy. We thereby concluded that the ecoregional nutrient criteria is not applicable to all the lakes within the ecoregion. It is believed that the modeling results and the RCA approach will enhance the understanding of proper spatial scale and values of nutrient criteria in China.
Nutrient criteria is the foundation of lake eutrophication control and management. To assess the applicability of ecoregional nutrient criteria,a relationship-based clustering approach( RCA) is proposed in this study. The RCA includes two major steps,including(1)the hierarchical clustering based on the linear mixed-effect model and the mean absolute percentage error and(2)the model identification based on the Akaike information criterion( AIC).Considering the availability of long-term data,the Yungui Plateau Ecoregion and the Eastern Plain Ecoregion were selected as the study areas. The RCA was then employed to explore the Chlorophyll a-nutrient( total nitrogen and total phosphorus) relationship. The results show that the ecoregional models have the highest AIC values among all the four groups of relationships with Akaike weights of less than 0.001. The ecoregional relationship may result in the ecological fallacy. We thereby concluded that the ecoregional nutrient criteria is not applicable to all the lakes within the ecoregion. It is believed that the modeling results and the RCA approach will enhance the understanding of proper spatial scale and values of nutrient criteria in China.
引文
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梁中耀,刘永,盛虎,等.2014.滇池水质时间序列变化趋势识别及特征分析[J].环境科学学报,34(3):754-762
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Mimet A,Pellissier V,Houet T,et al.2016.A holistic landscape description reveals that landscape configuration changes more over time than composition:Implications for landscape ecology studies[J].Plos One,11(3):e0150111
Murtagh F,Contreras P.2017.Algorithms for hierarchical clustering:an overview,II[J].Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery,2(1):86-97
Oliver S K,Collins S M,Soranno P A,et al.2017.Unexpected stasis in a changing world:Lake nutrient and Chlorophyll trends since 1990[J].Global Change Biology,23(12):5455-5467
Olson J R,Hawkins C P.2013.Developing site-specific nutrient criteria from empirical models[J].Freshwater Science,32(3):719-740
Omernik J M,Griffith G E.2014.Ecoregions of the conterminous United States:Evolution of a hierarchical spatial framework[J].Environmental Management,54(6):1249-1266
Phillips G,Pietilinen O P,Carvalho L,et al.2008.Chlorophyllnutrient relationships of different lake types using a large European dataset[J].Aquatic Ecology,42(2):213-226
Piou C,Berger U,Grimm V.2009.Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework[J].Ecological Modelling,220(17):1957-1967
Qian S S.2010.Environmental and Ecological Statistics with R[M]//Environmental and ecological statistics with R/.Chapman&Hall/CRC.117-154
Qian S S,Stow C A,Cha Y.2015.Implications of Stein's Paradox for environmental standard compliance assessment[J].Environmental Science&Technology,49(24):5913-5920
Read E K,Patil V P,Oliver S K,et al.2015.The importance of lake‐specific characteristics for water quality across the continental United States[J].Ecological Applications,25(4):943-955
Rohm C M,Omernik J M,Woods A J,et al.2002.Regional characteristics of nutrient concentrations in streams and their application to nutrient criteria development[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,38(1):213-239
Roitberg E,Shoshany M.2017.Can spatial patterns along climatic gradients predict ecosystem responses to climate change?Experimenting with reaction-diffusion simulations[J].Plos One,12(4):e0174942
Soranno P A,Cheruvelil K S,Bissell E G,et al.2014.Cross‐scale interactions:quantifying multi‐scaled cause–effect relationships in macrosystems[J].Frontiers in Ecology&the Environment,12(1):65-73
Stoddard J L.2004.Use of ecological regions in aquatic assessments of ecological condition[J].Environmental Management,34:S61-S70
Tuckey J W.1977.Exploratory Data Analysis[M].Addison-Wesley Pub.Co.163-182
US EPA.1998.National Strategy For The Development Of Regional Nutrient Criteria.EPA-822-R-98-002[R].US EPA,Office of Water,Washington,D.C.,USA
Villegas M,Newsome S D,Blake J G.2016.Seasonal patterns in delta H-2 values of multiple tissues from Andean birds provide insights into elevational migration[J].Ecological Applications,26(8):2381-2387
Wagner T,Soranno P A,Webster K E,et al.2011.Landscape drivers of regional variation in the relationship between total phosphorus and Chlorophyll in lakes[J].Freshwater Biology,56(9):1811-1824
Xu H,Paerl H W,Qin B,et al.2015.Determining critical nutrient thresholds needed to control harmful cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic lake taihu,China[J].Environmental Science&Technology,49(2):1051-1059
Yuan L L,Pollard A I.2015.Deriving nutrient targets to prevent excessive cyanobacterial densities in US lakes and reservoirs[J].Freshwater Biology,60(9):1901-1916
Zhang Y,Huo S,Ma C,et al.2014.Using stressor-response models to derive numeric nutrient criteria for lakes in the eastern plain ecoregion,China[J].Clean-Soil Air Water,42(11):1509-1517
Anderson D R,Burnham K P.2002.Avoiding pitfalls when using information-theoretic methods[J].Journal of Wildlife Management,66:912-918
Barrero M A,Orza J A G,Cabello M,et al.2015.Categorisation of air quality monitoring stations by evaluation of PM10variability[J].Science of the Total Environment,524:225-236
Bates D,Mae Chler M,Bolker B M,et al.2015.Fitting linear mixedeffects models using lme4[J].Journal of Statistical Software,67:1-48
Bennett N D,Croke B F W,Guariso G,et al.2013.Characterising performance of environmental models[J].Environmental Modelling&Software,40:1-20
Chen L,Li S,Wang G,et al.2017.Validation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool(SWAT)in ungauged catchment[J].Journal of Environmental Accounting and Management,5(3):233-242
Cheruvelil K S,Soranno P A,Webster K E,et al.2013.Multi-scaled drivers of ecosystem state:quantifying the importance of the regional spatial scale[J].Ecological Applications,23(7):1603-1618
Conley D J,Paerl H W,Howarth W,et al.2009.Controlling eutrophication:Nitrogen and phosphorus[J].Science,323(5917):1014-1015
Dodds W K K,Welch E B.2000.Establishing nutrient criteria in streams[J].Journal of the North American Benthological Society,19(1):186-196
Evans-White M A,Haggard B E,Scott J T.2013.A review of stream nutrient criteria development in the United States[J].Journal of Environmental Quality,42(4):1002-1014
Fergus C E,Soranno P A,Cheruvelil K S,et al.2011.Multiscale landscape and wetland drivers of lake total phosphorus and water color[J].Limnology&Oceanography,56(6):2127-2146
Hamil K A D,Iii B V I,Huang W K,et al.2016.Cross-scale contradictions in ecological relationships[J].Landscape Ecology,31(1):7-18
Han D,Currell M J,Cao G.2016.Deep challenges for China's war on water pollution[J].Environmental Pollution,218:1222-1233
Heiskary S A,Bouchard R W Jr.2015.Development of eutrophication criteria for Minnesota streams and rivers using multiple lines of evidence[J].Freshwater Science,34(2):574-592
Hofmeister J,Ho2ek J,Brabec M,et al.2015.Value of old forest attributes related to cryptogam species richness in temperate forests:A quantitative assessment[J].Ecological Indicators,57:497-504
Huang M,Piao S,Janssens I A,et al.2017.Velocity of change in vegetation productivity over northern high latitudes[J].Nature Ecology&Evolution,1(11):1649-1654
Huo S,Ma C,Xi B,et al.2014.Lake ecoregions and nutrient criteria development in China[J].Ecological Indicators,46:1-10
Huo S,Ma C,Xi B,et al.2017.Development of methods for establishing nutrient criteria in lakes and reservoirs:A review[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,67:54-56
Huo S,Xi B,Ma C,et al.2013.Stressor-Response Models:A practical application for the development of lake nutrient criteria in China[J].Environmental Science&Technology,47:11922-11923
Ingrassia S,Mc La Chlan G J,Govaert G.2015.Special issue on"New trends on model-based clustering and classification"[J].Advances in Data Analysis and Classification,9:367-369
Kim S.2015.ppcor:An R Package for a Fast Calculation to Semi-partial Correlation Coefficients[J].Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods,22(6):665-674
Klazar M.2003.Bell numbers,their relatives,and algebraic differential equations[J].Journal of Combinatorial Theory Series A,102(1):63-87
Le C,Zha Y,Li Y,et al.2010.Eutrophication of Lake Waters in China:Cost,Causes,and Control[J].Environmental Management,45(4):662-668
梁中耀,刘永,盛虎,等.2014.滇池水质时间序列变化趋势识别及特征分析[J].环境科学学报,34(3):754-762
Liu Z,Zhu Y,Li F,et al.2017.Non-destructively predicting leaf area,leaf mass and specific leaf area based on a linear mixed-effect model for broadleaf species[J].Ecological Indicators,78:340-350
Maas-Hebner K G,Harte M J,Molina N,et al.2015.Combining and aggregating environmental data for status and trend assessments:challenges and approaches[J].Environmental Monitoring&Assessment,187(5):278
Malve O,Qian S S.2006.Estimating nutrients and Chlorophyll a relationships in Finnish lakes[J].Environmental Science&Technology,40(24):7848-7853
Mclaughlin D B.2014.Maximizing the accuracy of field-derived numeric nutrient criteria in water quality regulations[J].Integrated Environmental Assessment&Management,10(1):133-137
Mc Laughlin D B,Reckhow K H.2017.A Bayesian network assessment of macroinvertebrate responses to nutrients and other factors in streams of the Eastern Corn Belt Plains,Ohio,USA[J].Ecological Modelling,345:21-29
Mimet A,Pellissier V,Houet T,et al.2016.A holistic landscape description reveals that landscape configuration changes more over time than composition:Implications for landscape ecology studies[J].Plos One,11(3):e0150111
Murtagh F,Contreras P.2017.Algorithms for hierarchical clustering:an overview,II[J].Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery,2(1):86-97
Oliver S K,Collins S M,Soranno P A,et al.2017.Unexpected stasis in a changing world:Lake nutrient and Chlorophyll trends since 1990[J].Global Change Biology,23(12):5455-5467
Olson J R,Hawkins C P.2013.Developing site-specific nutrient criteria from empirical models[J].Freshwater Science,32(3):719-740
Omernik J M,Griffith G E.2014.Ecoregions of the conterminous United States:Evolution of a hierarchical spatial framework[J].Environmental Management,54(6):1249-1266
Phillips G,Pietilinen O P,Carvalho L,et al.2008.Chlorophyllnutrient relationships of different lake types using a large European dataset[J].Aquatic Ecology,42(2):213-226
Piou C,Berger U,Grimm V.2009.Proposing an information criterion for individual-based models developed in a pattern-oriented modelling framework[J].Ecological Modelling,220(17):1957-1967
Qian S S.2010.Environmental and Ecological Statistics with R[M]//Environmental and ecological statistics with R/.Chapman&Hall/CRC.117-154
Qian S S,Stow C A,Cha Y.2015.Implications of Stein's Paradox for environmental standard compliance assessment[J].Environmental Science&Technology,49(24):5913-5920
Read E K,Patil V P,Oliver S K,et al.2015.The importance of lake‐specific characteristics for water quality across the continental United States[J].Ecological Applications,25(4):943-955
Rohm C M,Omernik J M,Woods A J,et al.2002.Regional characteristics of nutrient concentrations in streams and their application to nutrient criteria development[J].Journal of the American Water Resources Association,38(1):213-239
Roitberg E,Shoshany M.2017.Can spatial patterns along climatic gradients predict ecosystem responses to climate change?Experimenting with reaction-diffusion simulations[J].Plos One,12(4):e0174942
Soranno P A,Cheruvelil K S,Bissell E G,et al.2014.Cross‐scale interactions:quantifying multi‐scaled cause–effect relationships in macrosystems[J].Frontiers in Ecology&the Environment,12(1):65-73
Stoddard J L.2004.Use of ecological regions in aquatic assessments of ecological condition[J].Environmental Management,34:S61-S70
Tuckey J W.1977.Exploratory Data Analysis[M].Addison-Wesley Pub.Co.163-182
US EPA.1998.National Strategy For The Development Of Regional Nutrient Criteria.EPA-822-R-98-002[R].US EPA,Office of Water,Washington,D.C.,USA
Villegas M,Newsome S D,Blake J G.2016.Seasonal patterns in delta H-2 values of multiple tissues from Andean birds provide insights into elevational migration[J].Ecological Applications,26(8):2381-2387
Wagner T,Soranno P A,Webster K E,et al.2011.Landscape drivers of regional variation in the relationship between total phosphorus and Chlorophyll in lakes[J].Freshwater Biology,56(9):1811-1824
Xu H,Paerl H W,Qin B,et al.2015.Determining critical nutrient thresholds needed to control harmful cyanobacterial blooms in eutrophic lake taihu,China[J].Environmental Science&Technology,49(2):1051-1059
Yuan L L,Pollard A I.2015.Deriving nutrient targets to prevent excessive cyanobacterial densities in US lakes and reservoirs[J].Freshwater Biology,60(9):1901-1916
Zhang Y,Huo S,Ma C,et al.2014.Using stressor-response models to derive numeric nutrient criteria for lakes in the eastern plain ecoregion,China[J].Clean-Soil Air Water,42(11):1509-1517