辽宁地区5级地震测震学指标体系研究
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摘要
基于1970年以来辽宁地区7次5级以上地震,分别从震前中小地震活动图像和时序扫描的角度,对历次地震前的地震学指标进行了系统梳理和提炼,结果显示:空区、条带、b值、A(b)值、D值、缺震及XY值对辽宁地区5级地震的映震效果较好。因此结合以往关于辽宁地区中等地震集中增强和震群特征的研究结果,综合起来初步将其构建为辽宁地区5级地震的地震学指标体系。其中强度预测指标主要有中等地震集中增强、震群序列、条带和空区,未来主震最大震级估算方法为上述四种情况中的最大地震震级加1.5~2.0;地点预测指标与强度指标相同,判定方法是未来5级地震通常位于条带上和空区边缘及其附近地区,若有中等地震集中增强活动,则未来5级地震靠近最近一次中等地震的位置,若出现震群序列,则未来主震发生地点为震群周围200km(前震序列时,主震就发生在序列原地附近);时间预测指标除了强度和地点指标中的4项外,还包括b值、A(b)值、D值、缺震和XY值,总体看来后三者异常通常出现在震前的一年左右,空区和条带的解体时间以及b值异常通常出现在震前的半年左右,前震序列开始时间距离主震发生通常在1~20天左右。
The seismological prediction indexes of seven earthquakes(M ≥5.0)occurring in Liaoning since 1970 were analyzed from medium-small seismicity images and sequential scanning.Results show that the earthquake-reflecting effect of certain parameters,i.e.seismic gap,seismic belt,b value,A(b)value,D value,earthquake deficiency,and XYvalue is relatively good.Combining previous results of enhancements,concentration of moderate earthquakes,and characteristics of earthquake swarms in Liaoning,a seismological index system of earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥5.0was constructed.Earthquake intensity prediction indexes mainly include the enhancement and concentration of moderate earthquakes,earthquake swarm sequences,seismic gaps,and belts,and the maximum magnitude of a forthcoming main shock is estimated by adding 1.5~2to the value of the maximum magnitude of the earthquake for the above four items.The location prediction index is similar to the earthquake intensity prediction index,and the method determined shows the following:earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥5.0generally occur in the seismic gap and belt or nearby region;if there is an increase and concentration in moderate earthquakes the location of forthcoming earthquakes with M ≥5will be close to where the last moderate earthquake occurred;if there is an earthquake swarm sequence,the forthcoming main shock will occur within 200 km of the swarm(if there is a foreshock sequence,the main shock will occur near the location of the sequence).In addition to the four items used in earthquake intensity and location prediction indexes,the seismic time prediction indexes include the b value,A(b)value,D value,earthquake deficiency,and the XYvalue.Furthermore,the anomalies of A(b)value,D value,earthquake deficiency,and XYvalue commonly occur about one year before the earthquake;disappearance of the seismic belt and seismic gap,and b value anomalies commonly occur about half a year before an earthquake;and the foreshock sequence commonly occurs about 1to 20 days before the main shock.
The seismological prediction indexes of seven earthquakes(M ≥5.0)occurring in Liaoning since 1970 were analyzed from medium-small seismicity images and sequential scanning.Results show that the earthquake-reflecting effect of certain parameters,i.e.seismic gap,seismic belt,b value,A(b)value,D value,earthquake deficiency,and XYvalue is relatively good.Combining previous results of enhancements,concentration of moderate earthquakes,and characteristics of earthquake swarms in Liaoning,a seismological index system of earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥5.0was constructed.Earthquake intensity prediction indexes mainly include the enhancement and concentration of moderate earthquakes,earthquake swarm sequences,seismic gaps,and belts,and the maximum magnitude of a forthcoming main shock is estimated by adding 1.5~2to the value of the maximum magnitude of the earthquake for the above four items.The location prediction index is similar to the earthquake intensity prediction index,and the method determined shows the following:earthquakes with a magnitude of M ≥5.0generally occur in the seismic gap and belt or nearby region;if there is an increase and concentration in moderate earthquakes the location of forthcoming earthquakes with M ≥5will be close to where the last moderate earthquake occurred;if there is an earthquake swarm sequence,the forthcoming main shock will occur within 200 km of the swarm(if there is a foreshock sequence,the main shock will occur near the location of the sequence).In addition to the four items used in earthquake intensity and location prediction indexes,the seismic time prediction indexes include the b value,A(b)value,D value,earthquake deficiency,and the XYvalue.Furthermore,the anomalies of A(b)value,D value,earthquake deficiency,and XYvalue commonly occur about one year before the earthquake;disappearance of the seismic belt and seismic gap,and b value anomalies commonly occur about half a year before an earthquake;and the foreshock sequence commonly occurs about 1to 20 days before the main shock.
引文
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[13]曹凤娟,徐心同.辽宁地区M≥5.0地震前4级地震集中活动的震兆研究[J].防灾减灾学报,2010,26(3):18-24.CAO Feng-juan,XU Xin-tong.Research on the Precursor Activities of the Concentrated ML≥4.0Earthquakes before M≥5.0in Liaoning Province[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Reduction,2010,26(3):18-24.(in Chinese)
[14]万波,贾丽华,戴盈磊,等.辽东半岛中强地震活动及其与构造相关性[J].地震地质,2013,35(2):300-314.WAN Bo,JIA Li-hua,DAI Ying-lei,et al.Moderate-strong Earthquakes and Their Tectonic Correlation in the Liaodong Peninsula[J].Seismology and Geology,2013,35(2):300-314.(in Chinese)
[15]中国地震局预测预防司.测震学分析预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997.Department of Prediction and Prevention of China Earthquake Administration.Method of Seismological Analysis and Prediction[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1997.(in Chinese)
[16]曹凤娟,翟丽娜,殷轶娜,等.辽宁地区震群序列统计特征及预测意义研究[J].中国地震,2015,31(1):45-55.CAO Feng-juan,ZHAO Li-na,YIN Yi-na,et al.The Study on the Statistical Characteristics of the Earthquake Swarms in Liaoning and the Prediction Significance[J].Earthquake Research in China,2015,31(1):45-55.(in Chinese)
[2]梅世蓉,冯德益,张国民,等.中国地震预测概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1993.MEI Shi-rong,FENG De-yi,ZHANG Guo-min,et al.Introduction to Chinese Earthquake Prediction[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1993.(in Chinese)
[3]中国地震局监测预报司.强地震中短期预报方法及其效能研究[M].北京:地震出版社,2002.Department of Earthquake Monitoring and Prediction of China Earthquake Administration.Study on Medium-short Term Strong Earthquake Prediction Method and Its Predictive Efficiency[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2002.(in Chinese)
[4]王安东,谷光裕,黄河,等.1999年11月29日和2000年1月12日辽宁省海城—岫岩5.4和5.1级地震[M]//中国震例1997-1999、北京:地震出版社,2000:429-467.WANG An-dong,GU Guang-yu,HUANG He,et al.Haicheng-Xiuyan Earthquakes of MS5.4on Nov.29,1999and MS5.1on Jan.12,2000in Liaoning Pronvince[M]//Earthquake Cases in China,1997-1999.Beijing:Seismological Press,2000:429-467.(in Chinese)
[5]朱凤鸣.1975年海城地震[M].北京:地震出版社,1982.ZHU Feng-ming.Haicheng Earthquake of 1975[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1982.(in Chinese)
[6]曹凤娟,王亮,焦明若,等.2012年2月2日盖州ML4.7震群序列特征及发震构造探讨[J].地震地质,2013,35(4):842-852.CAO Feng-juan,WANG Liang,JIAO Ming-ruo,et al.Discussion on the Characteristics and Seismo-tectonics of the Gaizhou ML4.7Earthquake Swarm Sequence on February 2,2012[J].Seismology and Geology,2013,35(4):842-852.(in Chinese)
[7]曹凤娟,焦明若.基于层次分析的辽宁地区中强震预测指标体系及效能评估[J].中国地震,2012,28(4):415-424.CAO Feng-juan,JIAO Ming-ruo.Efficiency Evaluation of Prediction Indictors for Medium-strong Earthquakes in the Liaoning Area Based on Analytic Hierarchy[J].Earthquake Research in China,2012,28(4):415-424.(in Chinese)
[8]曹凤娟,焦明若.辽宁地区震情预测预警层次分析模型研究[J].西北地震学报,2012,34(2):167-173.CAO Feng-juan,JIAO Ming-ruo.Study on Analytic Hierarchy Model of Early-warning of Earthquake Activity in Liaoning Area[J].Northwestern Seimological Journal,2012,34(2):167-173.(in Chinese)
[9]曹凤娟,焦明若,王海燕,等.基于层次分析的辽宁地区震情指标预警模型研究[J].华南地震,2010,30(2):88-96.CAO Feng-juan,JIAO Ming-ruo,WANG Hai-yan,et al.Earlywarning Model of Earthquake Situation Index of Liaoning Area Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process[J].South China Journal of Seismology,2010,30(2):88-96.(in Chinese)
[10]曹凤娟,王亮,李君,等.东北地区地震大形势预测回溯性检验[J].地震工程学报,2014,36(2):301-308.CAO Feng-juan,WANG Liang,LI Jun,et al.The Retrospective Test of the Earthquake Great Situation in Northeast China[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2014,36(2):301-308.(in Chinese)
[11]曹凤娟,焦明若,王亮,等.东北地区M≥5.0地震前中等地震集中活动的震兆研究[J].地震工程学报,2013,35(2):385-393.CAO Feng-juan,JIAO Ming-ruo,WANG Liang,et al.Research on the Precursor of Moderate Earthquakes before M≥5.0Seismic in the Northeast Region[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2013,35(2):385-393.(in Chinese)
[12]曹凤娟,郭晓燕,乔艳芬,等.辽宁地区ML≥5.0地震前中等地震集中活动的震兆研究[J].地震地磁观测与研究,2009,30(2):22-30.CAO Feng-juan,GUO Xiao-yan,QIAO Yan-fen,et al.Research on the Precursor of Medium Earthquakes(ML≥5.0S)Activities in Liaoning Province[J].Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research,2009,30(2):22-30.(in Chinese)
[13]曹凤娟,徐心同.辽宁地区M≥5.0地震前4级地震集中活动的震兆研究[J].防灾减灾学报,2010,26(3):18-24.CAO Feng-juan,XU Xin-tong.Research on the Precursor Activities of the Concentrated ML≥4.0Earthquakes before M≥5.0in Liaoning Province[J].Journal of Disaster Prevention and Reduction,2010,26(3):18-24.(in Chinese)
[14]万波,贾丽华,戴盈磊,等.辽东半岛中强地震活动及其与构造相关性[J].地震地质,2013,35(2):300-314.WAN Bo,JIA Li-hua,DAI Ying-lei,et al.Moderate-strong Earthquakes and Their Tectonic Correlation in the Liaodong Peninsula[J].Seismology and Geology,2013,35(2):300-314.(in Chinese)
[15]中国地震局预测预防司.测震学分析预报方法[M].北京:地震出版社,1997.Department of Prediction and Prevention of China Earthquake Administration.Method of Seismological Analysis and Prediction[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1997.(in Chinese)
[16]曹凤娟,翟丽娜,殷轶娜,等.辽宁地区震群序列统计特征及预测意义研究[J].中国地震,2015,31(1):45-55.CAO Feng-juan,ZHAO Li-na,YIN Yi-na,et al.The Study on the Statistical Characteristics of the Earthquake Swarms in Liaoning and the Prediction Significance[J].Earthquake Research in China,2015,31(1):45-55.(in Chinese)