快速城镇化地区外来人口入户时空特征与影响因素分析——基于2010～2015年东莞积分入户全样本数据
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摘要
以快速城镇化代表地区东莞为案例,采用已经实现入户的全样本人口数据,分析外来人口入户的时空变化特征及其影响因素。研究发现:外来人口的积分入户随时间变化具有明显的阶段特征,与外来人口总量的空间存在一定差异;外来人口入户随年龄增加呈现先增后减倒U型的曲线,入户的外来人口结构趋向于男性化、高学历化;积分入户政策调整对入户人数变化非常显著,且具有明显的选择性和导向性;迁入地的社会经济水平与公共服务容量对积分入户有较强的影响,服务业经济对外来人口的吸引力高于制造业经济;连续居住和拥有住房是外来人口户籍转变的关键性标志,子女入学是现阶段外来人口实现入户的核心特征。从推动优质教育资源均衡发展、优化与完善积分制政策作用、提升城镇经济水平和空间品质等方面提出相关政策启示。
Based on the case study of Dongguan, which is the highest proportion of migrant population city in China, this article uses the sample data of the points-based household population, investigating the spatial and temporal characteristics of the migrants and their influencing factors. The conclsions are : 1) The points-based household participants have obvious stage characteristics over time, and there is a certain difference from the distribution of migrants. 2) The relation between the number of points-based household participants and their age manifests a U-shaped curve, and the demographic structure of participants tends to be male-dominated and highly educated. 3) The adjustment of the points-based household policy has a significant effect on participants. 4) The social and economic level of towns relocated have a strong impact on the points-based household, whose service economy is more attractive to the migrant population than the manufacturing economy.5) Long-term residence and working are the key symbols of household change for migrants, and education there for their children is the most important factors for migrants to participate points-based household. Moreover, promoting the equalization of high quality education resources, optimizing and perfect the integral system policy as well as enhancing the economic level and space quality are benefit for promoting the migration long residence.
Based on the case study of Dongguan, which is the highest proportion of migrant population city in China, this article uses the sample data of the points-based household population, investigating the spatial and temporal characteristics of the migrants and their influencing factors. The conclsions are : 1) The points-based household participants have obvious stage characteristics over time, and there is a certain difference from the distribution of migrants. 2) The relation between the number of points-based household participants and their age manifests a U-shaped curve, and the demographic structure of participants tends to be male-dominated and highly educated. 3) The adjustment of the points-based household policy has a significant effect on participants. 4) The social and economic level of towns relocated have a strong impact on the points-based household, whose service economy is more attractive to the migrant population than the manufacturing economy.5) Long-term residence and working are the key symbols of household change for migrants, and education there for their children is the most important factors for migrants to participate points-based household. Moreover, promoting the equalization of high quality education resources, optimizing and perfect the integral system policy as well as enhancing the economic level and space quality are benefit for promoting the migration long residence.
引文
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[3]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点.经济研究,2010(4):4-13.[Cai Fang. Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lewis Turning Point in China. Economic Research Journal, 2010(4):4-13.]
[4]段成荣,马学阳.当前中国新生代农民工的“新”状况[J].人口与经济,2011(4):16-22.[[Duan Chengrong, Ma Xueyang. A study on the new situation of the younger generation of farmer-turned migrant workers in China. Population&Economics,2011(4):16-22.]
[5]陈浩,郭力.“双转移”趋势与城镇化模式转型[J].城市问题,2012(2):71-75.[Chen Hao, Guo Li.“Double Shifts”trends and urbanization transformation. Urban Problems, 2012(2):71-75.]
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[7]朱宇.国外对非永久性迁移的研究及其对中国流动人口问题的启示[J].人口研究,2004,38(3):52-59.[Zhu Yu. Oversea's research on non-permanent migration and its implications for the issues of floating population in China. Population Research,2004, 28(3):52-59.]
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[9]蔡禾,王进.“农民工”永久迁移意愿研究[J].社会学研究,2007(6):86-113.[Cai He, Wang Jin. A study on migrant workers'permanent migration intentions. Sociological Studies, 2007(6):86-113.]
[10]王桂新,陈冠春,魏星.城市农民工市民化意愿影响因素考察——以上海市为例[J].人口与发展,2010,16(2):2-11.[Wang Guixin, Chen Guanchun, Wei Xing. Study on the influencing factors of rural—Urban migrant workers'willingness to be urban citizens in Shanghai. Population and Development,2010,16(2):2-11].
[11]魏后凯,苏红键.中国农业转移人口市民化进程研究[J].中国人口科学,2013(5):21-29,126.[Wei Houkai, Su Hongjian. Research on degree of citizenization of rural-urban migrants in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science,2013(5):21-29,126.]
[12] Basker E. Education, job search and migration[R]. Columbia:University of Missouri–Columbia, 2002.
[13]原新,王海宁,陈媛媛.大城市外来人口迁移行为影响因素分析[J].人口学刊,2011(1):59-66.[Yuan Xin, Wang Haining,Chen Yuanyuan. Analysis on factors affecting decision-making of migrant population in large cities of China. Population Journal, 2011(1):59-66.]
[14]李强,龙文进.农民工留城与返乡意愿的影响因素分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(2):46-54.[Li Qiang, Long Wenjin. Influence factors analysis of migrants will to stay in city and go home.Chinese Rural Economy,2009(2):46-54.]
[15]王玉君.农民工城市定居意愿研究——基于十二个城市问卷调查的实证分析[J].人口研究,2013,37(4):19-32.[Wang Yujun. Settlement intention of rural migrants in Chinese cities:Findings from a twelve-city migrant survey. Population Research, 2013, 37(4):19-32.]
[16]张翼.农民工“进城落户”意愿与中国近期城镇化道路的选择[J].中国人口科学,2011(2):14-26.[Zhang Yi. Migrant workers'willing of hukou register and policy choice of China urbanization.Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2011(2):14-26.]
[17] Fan C C. China on the move:Migration, the state, and the household[M]. New York:Routledge, 2007.
[18]周皓.中国人口迁移的家庭化趋势及影响因素分析[J].人口研究,2004(6):60-69.[Zhou Hao. Family migration in China:Trends and determinants. Population Research, 2004, 28(6):60-69.]
[19]盛亦男.中国流动人口家庭化迁居.人口研究, 2013, 37(4):66-79.[Sheng Yinan. Family migration in China. Population Research, 2013, 37(4):66-79.]
[20]冯长春,李天娇,曹广忠,等.家庭式迁移的流动人口住房状况[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):633-646.[Feng Changchun, Li Tianjiao, Cao Guangzhong et al. Housing outcomes of family migrants at the place of destination. Geographical Research, 2017,36(4):633-646.]
[21]熊波,石人炳.农民工定居城市意愿影响因素——基于武汉市的实证分析[J].南方人口,2007(2):52-57.[Xiong Bo, Shi Renbing. An analysis on the factors affecting the rural laborers'desire to live permanently in the urban. South China Population,2007(2):52-57.]
[22]董昕.住房支付能力与农业转移人口的持久性迁移意愿[J].中国人口科学,2015(6):91-99+128.[Dong Xin. Housing affordability and permanent migration desire of rural-urban migrants.Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2015(6):91-99+128.]
[23] Amin A. An institutionalist perspective on regional economic development[J]. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 1999, 23(2):365-378.
[24] Pike Andy, Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, John Tomaney. Handbook of local and regional development[M]. New York:Routledge,2010.
[25] Ahituv A, Kimhi A. Off-farm work and capital accumulation decisions of farmers over the life-cycle:The role of heterogeneity and state dependence[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2002, 68(2):329-353.
[26] Adams R H, Page J. Poverty, inequality and growth in selected Middle East and North Africa countries, 1980-2000[J]. World Development, 2003, 31(12):2027-2048.
[27]蒲英霞,韩洪凌,葛莹,等.中国省际人口迁移的多边效应机制分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):205-216.[Pu Yingxia, Han Hongling, Ge Ying et al. Multilateral mechanism analysis of interprovincial migration flows in China. Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(2):205-216.]
[28]林李月,朱宇.中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响因素——基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据[J].地理学报,2016,71(10):1696-1709.[Lin Liyue, Zhu Yu.Spatial variation and its determinants of migrants'Hukou transfer intention of China's prefecture-and provincial-level cities:Evidence from the 2012 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016,71(10):1696-1709.]
[29]王桂新,潘泽瀚,陆燕秋.中国省际人口迁移区域模式变化及其影响因素——基于2000和2010年人口普查资料的分析[J].中国人口科学,2012(5):2-13.[Wang Guixin, Pan Zehan, Lu Yanqiu. China's inter-provincial migration patterns and influential factors:Evidence from year 2000 and 2010 population census of China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2012(5):2-13.]
[30]蔡昉,王德文.作为市场化的人口流动——第五次全国人口普查数据分析[J].中国人口科学,2003(5):15-23.[Cai Fang,Wang Dewen. Migration as marketization:What can we learn from China's 2000 Census Data? Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2003(5):15-23.]
[31]刘晏伶,冯健.中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析[J].人文地理,2014,29(2):129-137.[Liu Yanling, Feng Jian. Characteristics and impact factors of migration in China:Based on the analysis of the sixth census data. Human Geography, 2014,29(2):129-137.]
[32]魏万青.从职业发展到家庭完整性:基于稳定城市化分析视角的农民工入户意愿研究[J].社会,2015,35(5):196-217.[Wei Wanqing. From occupation development to family integrity:Study on migrants'desire of urban hukou by an analysis perspective of urbanization stability.Society, 2015,35(5):196-217.]
[33]任远.“逐步沉淀”与“居留决定居留”——上海市外来人口居留模式分析[J].中国人口科学,2006(3):67-72.[Ren Yuan.Gradual precipitation and residence induced long term residence:Analysis on floating population's residence pattern in urban China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2006, 22(3):67-72.]
[34]薛凤旋,杨春.外资:发展中国家城市化的新动力——珠江三角洲个案研究[J].地理学报,1997,52(3):3-16.[Sit Fung Shuen Victor, Yang Chun. Exo-urbanization:The case of the Zhujiang River Relta. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1997, 52(3):193-206.]
[35]顾朝林.中国城市地理[M].北京:商务印书馆, 1999.[Gu Chaolin. Chinese urban geography. Beijing:The Commercial Press,1999.]
[36]杜志威,李郇.珠三角快速城镇化地区发展的增长与收缩新现象[J].地理学报,2017,72(10):1800-1811.[Du Zhiwei, Li Xun.Growth or shrinkage:New phenomena of regional development in the rapidly-urbanising Pearl River Delta. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(10):1800-1811.]
[37]杜志威,李郇.基于人口变化的东莞城镇增长与收缩特征和机制研究[J].地理科学,2018,38(11):1837-1846.[Du Zhiwei, Li Xun.Characteristic and mechanism of urban growth and shrinkage from demographic change perspective:A case study of Dongguan. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(11):1837-1846.
[38]东莞市统计局.东莞统计年鉴2017[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2017.[Dongguan Statistical Bureau. Dongguan statistical yearbook:2017.Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2017.]
[39]胡陈冲,朱宇,林李月等.流动人口的户籍迁移意愿及其影响因素分析——基于一项在福建省的问卷调查[J].人口与发展,2011,17(3):2-10.[Hu Chenchong, Zhu Yu, Lin Liyue et al.Analysis on floating population's hukou transfer intention and its influencing factor:Insights from a survey in Fujian Province. Population&Development, 2011, 17(3):2-10.]
(1)由东莞市新莞人服务管理局提供。
[2]卢向虎,王永刚.中国“乡-城”人口迁移规模的测算与分析(1979-2003)[J].西北人口,2006(1):14-16.[Lu Xianghu, Wang Yonggang. Estimation and analysis on Chinese rural-urban migration size. Northwest Population Journal,2006,(01):14-16.]
[3]蔡昉.人口转变、人口红利与刘易斯转折点.经济研究,2010(4):4-13.[Cai Fang. Demographic transition, demographic dividend, and Lewis Turning Point in China. Economic Research Journal, 2010(4):4-13.]
[4]段成荣,马学阳.当前中国新生代农民工的“新”状况[J].人口与经济,2011(4):16-22.[[Duan Chengrong, Ma Xueyang. A study on the new situation of the younger generation of farmer-turned migrant workers in China. Population&Economics,2011(4):16-22.]
[5]陈浩,郭力.“双转移”趋势与城镇化模式转型[J].城市问题,2012(2):71-75.[Chen Hao, Guo Li.“Double Shifts”trends and urbanization transformation. Urban Problems, 2012(2):71-75.]
[6] Goldstein S, Goldstein A. Permanent and temporary migration differentials in China[M]. Honolulu:East-West Population Institute, 1991.
[7]朱宇.国外对非永久性迁移的研究及其对中国流动人口问题的启示[J].人口研究,2004,38(3):52-59.[Zhu Yu. Oversea's research on non-permanent migration and its implications for the issues of floating population in China. Population Research,2004, 28(3):52-59.]
[8]侯红娅,杨晶,李子奈.中国农村劳动力迁移意愿实证分析[J].经济问题,2004(7):52-54.[Hou Hongya, Yang Jing, Li Zinai.Empirical analysis of the migratory preference of labor force in China. On Economic Problems, 2004(7):52-54.]
[9]蔡禾,王进.“农民工”永久迁移意愿研究[J].社会学研究,2007(6):86-113.[Cai He, Wang Jin. A study on migrant workers'permanent migration intentions. Sociological Studies, 2007(6):86-113.]
[10]王桂新,陈冠春,魏星.城市农民工市民化意愿影响因素考察——以上海市为例[J].人口与发展,2010,16(2):2-11.[Wang Guixin, Chen Guanchun, Wei Xing. Study on the influencing factors of rural—Urban migrant workers'willingness to be urban citizens in Shanghai. Population and Development,2010,16(2):2-11].
[11]魏后凯,苏红键.中国农业转移人口市民化进程研究[J].中国人口科学,2013(5):21-29,126.[Wei Houkai, Su Hongjian. Research on degree of citizenization of rural-urban migrants in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science,2013(5):21-29,126.]
[12] Basker E. Education, job search and migration[R]. Columbia:University of Missouri–Columbia, 2002.
[13]原新,王海宁,陈媛媛.大城市外来人口迁移行为影响因素分析[J].人口学刊,2011(1):59-66.[Yuan Xin, Wang Haining,Chen Yuanyuan. Analysis on factors affecting decision-making of migrant population in large cities of China. Population Journal, 2011(1):59-66.]
[14]李强,龙文进.农民工留城与返乡意愿的影响因素分析[J].中国农村经济,2009(2):46-54.[Li Qiang, Long Wenjin. Influence factors analysis of migrants will to stay in city and go home.Chinese Rural Economy,2009(2):46-54.]
[15]王玉君.农民工城市定居意愿研究——基于十二个城市问卷调查的实证分析[J].人口研究,2013,37(4):19-32.[Wang Yujun. Settlement intention of rural migrants in Chinese cities:Findings from a twelve-city migrant survey. Population Research, 2013, 37(4):19-32.]
[16]张翼.农民工“进城落户”意愿与中国近期城镇化道路的选择[J].中国人口科学,2011(2):14-26.[Zhang Yi. Migrant workers'willing of hukou register and policy choice of China urbanization.Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2011(2):14-26.]
[17] Fan C C. China on the move:Migration, the state, and the household[M]. New York:Routledge, 2007.
[18]周皓.中国人口迁移的家庭化趋势及影响因素分析[J].人口研究,2004(6):60-69.[Zhou Hao. Family migration in China:Trends and determinants. Population Research, 2004, 28(6):60-69.]
[19]盛亦男.中国流动人口家庭化迁居.人口研究, 2013, 37(4):66-79.[Sheng Yinan. Family migration in China. Population Research, 2013, 37(4):66-79.]
[20]冯长春,李天娇,曹广忠,等.家庭式迁移的流动人口住房状况[J].地理研究,2017,36(4):633-646.[Feng Changchun, Li Tianjiao, Cao Guangzhong et al. Housing outcomes of family migrants at the place of destination. Geographical Research, 2017,36(4):633-646.]
[21]熊波,石人炳.农民工定居城市意愿影响因素——基于武汉市的实证分析[J].南方人口,2007(2):52-57.[Xiong Bo, Shi Renbing. An analysis on the factors affecting the rural laborers'desire to live permanently in the urban. South China Population,2007(2):52-57.]
[22]董昕.住房支付能力与农业转移人口的持久性迁移意愿[J].中国人口科学,2015(6):91-99+128.[Dong Xin. Housing affordability and permanent migration desire of rural-urban migrants.Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2015(6):91-99+128.]
[23] Amin A. An institutionalist perspective on regional economic development[J]. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, 1999, 23(2):365-378.
[24] Pike Andy, Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, John Tomaney. Handbook of local and regional development[M]. New York:Routledge,2010.
[25] Ahituv A, Kimhi A. Off-farm work and capital accumulation decisions of farmers over the life-cycle:The role of heterogeneity and state dependence[J]. Journal of Development Economics,2002, 68(2):329-353.
[26] Adams R H, Page J. Poverty, inequality and growth in selected Middle East and North Africa countries, 1980-2000[J]. World Development, 2003, 31(12):2027-2048.
[27]蒲英霞,韩洪凌,葛莹,等.中国省际人口迁移的多边效应机制分析[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):205-216.[Pu Yingxia, Han Hongling, Ge Ying et al. Multilateral mechanism analysis of interprovincial migration flows in China. Acta Geographica Sinica,2016,71(2):205-216.]
[28]林李月,朱宇.中国城市流动人口户籍迁移意愿的空间格局及影响因素——基于2012年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据[J].地理学报,2016,71(10):1696-1709.[Lin Liyue, Zhu Yu.Spatial variation and its determinants of migrants'Hukou transfer intention of China's prefecture-and provincial-level cities:Evidence from the 2012 national migrant population dynamic monitoring survey. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2016,71(10):1696-1709.]
[29]王桂新,潘泽瀚,陆燕秋.中国省际人口迁移区域模式变化及其影响因素——基于2000和2010年人口普查资料的分析[J].中国人口科学,2012(5):2-13.[Wang Guixin, Pan Zehan, Lu Yanqiu. China's inter-provincial migration patterns and influential factors:Evidence from year 2000 and 2010 population census of China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2012(5):2-13.]
[30]蔡昉,王德文.作为市场化的人口流动——第五次全国人口普查数据分析[J].中国人口科学,2003(5):15-23.[Cai Fang,Wang Dewen. Migration as marketization:What can we learn from China's 2000 Census Data? Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2003(5):15-23.]
[31]刘晏伶,冯健.中国人口迁移特征及其影响因素——基于第六次人口普查数据的分析[J].人文地理,2014,29(2):129-137.[Liu Yanling, Feng Jian. Characteristics and impact factors of migration in China:Based on the analysis of the sixth census data. Human Geography, 2014,29(2):129-137.]
[32]魏万青.从职业发展到家庭完整性:基于稳定城市化分析视角的农民工入户意愿研究[J].社会,2015,35(5):196-217.[Wei Wanqing. From occupation development to family integrity:Study on migrants'desire of urban hukou by an analysis perspective of urbanization stability.Society, 2015,35(5):196-217.]
[33]任远.“逐步沉淀”与“居留决定居留”——上海市外来人口居留模式分析[J].中国人口科学,2006(3):67-72.[Ren Yuan.Gradual precipitation and residence induced long term residence:Analysis on floating population's residence pattern in urban China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, 2006, 22(3):67-72.]
[34]薛凤旋,杨春.外资:发展中国家城市化的新动力——珠江三角洲个案研究[J].地理学报,1997,52(3):3-16.[Sit Fung Shuen Victor, Yang Chun. Exo-urbanization:The case of the Zhujiang River Relta. Acta Geographica Sinica, 1997, 52(3):193-206.]
[35]顾朝林.中国城市地理[M].北京:商务印书馆, 1999.[Gu Chaolin. Chinese urban geography. Beijing:The Commercial Press,1999.]
[36]杜志威,李郇.珠三角快速城镇化地区发展的增长与收缩新现象[J].地理学报,2017,72(10):1800-1811.[Du Zhiwei, Li Xun.Growth or shrinkage:New phenomena of regional development in the rapidly-urbanising Pearl River Delta. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2017, 72(10):1800-1811.]
[37]杜志威,李郇.基于人口变化的东莞城镇增长与收缩特征和机制研究[J].地理科学,2018,38(11):1837-1846.[Du Zhiwei, Li Xun.Characteristic and mechanism of urban growth and shrinkage from demographic change perspective:A case study of Dongguan. Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(11):1837-1846.
[38]东莞市统计局.东莞统计年鉴2017[M].北京:中国统计出版社, 2017.[Dongguan Statistical Bureau. Dongguan statistical yearbook:2017.Beijing:China Statistics Press, 2017.]
[39]胡陈冲,朱宇,林李月等.流动人口的户籍迁移意愿及其影响因素分析——基于一项在福建省的问卷调查[J].人口与发展,2011,17(3):2-10.[Hu Chenchong, Zhu Yu, Lin Liyue et al.Analysis on floating population's hukou transfer intention and its influencing factor:Insights from a survey in Fujian Province. Population&Development, 2011, 17(3):2-10.]
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