对外直接投资加剧财务风险了吗?——基于中国A股上市公司的证据
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摘要
以2005—2016年中国沪深A股上市公司为样本,利用匹配的双重差分模型,检验了对外直接投资战略对资本结构的影响。实证结果表明:(1)对外直接投资战略显著提升了企业的总负债水平和长期负债水平,而对短期负债水平没有显著影响;(2)对外直接投资战略显著提高了偏离目标资本结构的程度,但并没有对资本结构的调整速度有明显改善;(3)对外直接投资次数显著提升了负债率与偏离目标资本结构程度;(4)与国有企业相比,对外直接投资战略对非国有企业的总负债水平和长期负债水平影响更显著,且对目标资本结构的偏离更大。
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment(ODI)on capital structure decision-making by using the matching Difference-in-Difference model from 2005 to 2016as a sample of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-listed companies.The empirical results show that:(1)Outward Direct Investment Strategy has significantly improved the level of total liabilities and the long-term debt level,but has no significant effect on the short-term debt level.(2)Outward Direct Investment Strategy has significantly improved the degree of deviation from the target capital structure,but there is no adjustment significant impact on the capital structure.(3)The number of foreign direct investment significantly increased the debt ratio and deviated from the target capital structure.(4)The further analysis of the differences in the state holding and non-state holding shows that Outward Direct Investment Strategy has a more significant effect on the total debt level and the long-term debt level of the non-state-owned enterprises than the state-owned enterprises,and deviates from the target capital structure.The research of this paper has important implications for the prudent foreign direct investment and capital structure decision of Chinese enterprises and the risk prevention and management of foreign direct investment.
This paper examines the impact of foreign direct investment(ODI)on capital structure decision-making by using the matching Difference-in-Difference model from 2005 to 2016as a sample of Shanghai and Shenzhen A-listed companies.The empirical results show that:(1)Outward Direct Investment Strategy has significantly improved the level of total liabilities and the long-term debt level,but has no significant effect on the short-term debt level.(2)Outward Direct Investment Strategy has significantly improved the degree of deviation from the target capital structure,but there is no adjustment significant impact on the capital structure.(3)The number of foreign direct investment significantly increased the debt ratio and deviated from the target capital structure.(4)The further analysis of the differences in the state holding and non-state holding shows that Outward Direct Investment Strategy has a more significant effect on the total debt level and the long-term debt level of the non-state-owned enterprises than the state-owned enterprises,and deviates from the target capital structure.The research of this paper has important implications for the prudent foreign direct investment and capital structure decision of Chinese enterprises and the risk prevention and management of foreign direct investment.
引文
[1]BUCH C M,KESTERNICH I,LIPPONER A,et al.Financial Constraints and Foreign Direct Investment:Firm-level Evidence[J].Review of World Economics,2014,150(2):393-420.
[2]李磊,包群.融资约束制约了中国工业企业的对外直接投资吗?[J].财经研究,2015(6):120-131.
[3]李泳.中国企业对外直接投资成效研究[J].管理世界,2009(9):34-43.
[4]毛其淋,许家云.中国企业对外直接投资是否促进了企业创新[J].世界经济,2014(8):98-125.
[5]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国工业企业对外直接投资与企业生产率进步[J].世界经济,2014(9):53-76.
[6]袁东,李霖洁,余淼杰.外向型对外直接投资与母公司生产率---对母公司特征和子公司进入策略的考察[J].南开经济研究,2015(3):38-58.
[7]冯春晓.我国对外直接投资与产业结构优化的实证研究---以制造业为例[J].国际贸易问题,2009(8):97-104.
[8]李东坤,邓敏.中国省际OFDI,空间溢出与产业结构升级---基于空间面板杜宾模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016(1):121-133.
[9]隋月红,赵振华.我国OFDI对贸易结构影响的机理与实证---兼论我国OFDI动机的拓展[J].财贸经济,2012(4):81-89.
[10]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国企业对外直接投资的“出口效应”[J].经济研究,2014(5):160-173.
[11]姜付秀,黄继承.CEO财务经历与资本结构决策[J].会计研究,2013(5):27-34+95.
[12]张会丽,陆正飞.控股水平,负债主体与资本结构适度性[J].南开管理评论,2013(5):142-151.
[13]WILLIAMSON O E.Corporate Finance and Corporate Governance[J].Journal of Finance,1988,43(3):567-591.
[14]MITTOO U R,ZHANG Z.The Capital Structure of Multinational Corporations:Canadian Versus U.S.Evidence[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2008,14(5):706-720.
[15]BURGMAN T A.An Empirical Examination of Multinational Corporate Capital Structure[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1996,27(3):553-570.
[16]DROBETZ W,WANZENRIED G.What Detemines the Speed of Ajustment to the Target Capital Structure[J].Applied Financial Economics,2006,16(13):941-958.
[17]BARTON S L,GORDON P J.Corporate Strategy and Capital Structure[J].Strategic Management Journal,1988,9(6):623-632.
[18]向东,张睿,张勋.国有控股,战略产业与跨国企业资本结构---来自中国A股上市公司的证据[J].金融研究,2015(1):193-206.
[19]谢德仁.国有控股企业负债率悖论:提出与解读[J].经济研究,1999(9):72-79.
[20]HUANG G,SONG F M.The Determinants of Capital Structure:Evidence from China[J].China Economic Review,2006,17(1):14-36.
[21]连玉君,彭方平,苏治.融资约束与流动性管理行为[J].金融研究,2010(10):158-171.
[22]黄少安,张岗.中国上市公司股权融资偏好分析[J].经济研究,2001(11):12-27.
[23]钱苹,罗玫.中国上市公司财务造假预测模型[J].会计研究,2015(7):18-25+96.
(1)数据来源:Wind资讯(www.wind.com.cn)。
(1)http:∥www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/.
(1)由于企业的实际运营会反映在财务指标上,盈利能力、有形资产、成长机会及非债务税盾从多方面考核了企业能否进行对外直接投资的实力情况。另外,由于匹配变量太多会引起匹配诅咒,导致匹配无法顺利开展,因此本文选用这四个指标匹配。从后文的平衡性检验可知,匹配通过了平衡性检验,匹配效果较好,能较好地消除混合因素的干扰,即对照组和实验组能保持相同的特征趋势。
(2)由于篇幅原因,匹配后的平衡性检验结果未列示,若感兴趣,可向笔者索取。
(1)鉴于本文考察的核心是企业横向和纵向比较的综合影响,因此在估计结果表里主要列举了交乘项的系数,由于篇幅原因,其他具体的控制变量、ODI及ODIT的系数未列示,若感兴趣,可向笔者索取。以下各表同。
(1)由于篇幅原因,平衡性检验和估计结果未列示,若感兴趣可向笔者索取。
(2)由于篇幅原因,F值作为因变量的模型估计结果未列示,若感兴趣可向笔者索取。
[2]李磊,包群.融资约束制约了中国工业企业的对外直接投资吗?[J].财经研究,2015(6):120-131.
[3]李泳.中国企业对外直接投资成效研究[J].管理世界,2009(9):34-43.
[4]毛其淋,许家云.中国企业对外直接投资是否促进了企业创新[J].世界经济,2014(8):98-125.
[5]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国工业企业对外直接投资与企业生产率进步[J].世界经济,2014(9):53-76.
[6]袁东,李霖洁,余淼杰.外向型对外直接投资与母公司生产率---对母公司特征和子公司进入策略的考察[J].南开经济研究,2015(3):38-58.
[7]冯春晓.我国对外直接投资与产业结构优化的实证研究---以制造业为例[J].国际贸易问题,2009(8):97-104.
[8]李东坤,邓敏.中国省际OFDI,空间溢出与产业结构升级---基于空间面板杜宾模型的实证分析[J].国际贸易问题,2016(1):121-133.
[9]隋月红,赵振华.我国OFDI对贸易结构影响的机理与实证---兼论我国OFDI动机的拓展[J].财贸经济,2012(4):81-89.
[10]蒋冠宏,蒋殿春.中国企业对外直接投资的“出口效应”[J].经济研究,2014(5):160-173.
[11]姜付秀,黄继承.CEO财务经历与资本结构决策[J].会计研究,2013(5):27-34+95.
[12]张会丽,陆正飞.控股水平,负债主体与资本结构适度性[J].南开管理评论,2013(5):142-151.
[13]WILLIAMSON O E.Corporate Finance and Corporate Governance[J].Journal of Finance,1988,43(3):567-591.
[14]MITTOO U R,ZHANG Z.The Capital Structure of Multinational Corporations:Canadian Versus U.S.Evidence[J].Journal of Corporate Finance,2008,14(5):706-720.
[15]BURGMAN T A.An Empirical Examination of Multinational Corporate Capital Structure[J].Journal of International Business Studies,1996,27(3):553-570.
[16]DROBETZ W,WANZENRIED G.What Detemines the Speed of Ajustment to the Target Capital Structure[J].Applied Financial Economics,2006,16(13):941-958.
[17]BARTON S L,GORDON P J.Corporate Strategy and Capital Structure[J].Strategic Management Journal,1988,9(6):623-632.
[18]向东,张睿,张勋.国有控股,战略产业与跨国企业资本结构---来自中国A股上市公司的证据[J].金融研究,2015(1):193-206.
[19]谢德仁.国有控股企业负债率悖论:提出与解读[J].经济研究,1999(9):72-79.
[20]HUANG G,SONG F M.The Determinants of Capital Structure:Evidence from China[J].China Economic Review,2006,17(1):14-36.
[21]连玉君,彭方平,苏治.融资约束与流动性管理行为[J].金融研究,2010(10):158-171.
[22]黄少安,张岗.中国上市公司股权融资偏好分析[J].经济研究,2001(11):12-27.
[23]钱苹,罗玫.中国上市公司财务造假预测模型[J].会计研究,2015(7):18-25+96.
(1)数据来源:Wind资讯(www.wind.com.cn)。
(1)http:∥www.aei.org/china-global-investment-tracker/.
(1)由于企业的实际运营会反映在财务指标上,盈利能力、有形资产、成长机会及非债务税盾从多方面考核了企业能否进行对外直接投资的实力情况。另外,由于匹配变量太多会引起匹配诅咒,导致匹配无法顺利开展,因此本文选用这四个指标匹配。从后文的平衡性检验可知,匹配通过了平衡性检验,匹配效果较好,能较好地消除混合因素的干扰,即对照组和实验组能保持相同的特征趋势。
(2)由于篇幅原因,匹配后的平衡性检验结果未列示,若感兴趣,可向笔者索取。
(1)鉴于本文考察的核心是企业横向和纵向比较的综合影响,因此在估计结果表里主要列举了交乘项的系数,由于篇幅原因,其他具体的控制变量、ODI及ODIT的系数未列示,若感兴趣,可向笔者索取。以下各表同。
(1)由于篇幅原因,平衡性检验和估计结果未列示,若感兴趣可向笔者索取。
(2)由于篇幅原因,F值作为因变量的模型估计结果未列示,若感兴趣可向笔者索取。